Political

Memorandum

To:         Interested Parties

From:      Rick Wiley

RE:         The Latino Vote

Date:      January 11, 2012

You would have to be living under a rock to not recognize the growing importance of the Latino vote, both today and in elections to come. The facts about demographic change are indisputable. Fifty thousand young Latino adults reach voting age each month. Over one in five people under the age of 18 in America today is Latino. Over 10 million Latino voters will participate in the 2012 election.

While it is no secret Latino voters are a critical coalition for Democrat electoral success, this year Democrats, and especially President Obama, cannot take their support for granted. Like all voters, Latinos aren’t satisfied with the direction of our country, and nor are they enamored with the job the president is doing. In a poll released last month by the Pew Hispanic Center, only 36% of Latinos are “satisfied with the way things are going” in this country, and less than a majority (49%) of Latinos say they approve of the way the president is handling his job.

Supporters of the president like to point out that his job approval numbers are higher among Latinos (46% approval in Gallup's weekly tracking at the end of December) than they are among the rest of the electorate (42% approval in Gallup's weekly tracking at the end of December). While this is true, it is not the entire story. Obama's erosion in job approval among Hispanics - from a high point of 85% in April/May 2009 to 46% - is greater than any other demographic group.

Among the battleground states in this year’s presidential election there are four states where this changing Latino demographic is most evident – Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico. Last fall Resurgent Republic surveyed the Latino communities in three of these states and found some glaring vulnerabilities for the president. 

The survey showed that Obama is getting less support on a generic ballot test than he did three years ago against John McCain in all three states. In addition, the Democrat lock on Latino partisan affiliation in these states is giving way to a growing Independent block – including 40% of Florida Latino voters, over a third (34%) of Colorado Latino voters, and a quarter (24%) of New Mexico Latino voters. Among these Independents, no more than a quarter in each state feel that Obama has delivered on his campaign promises, and more than 60% in each state view Obama’s leadership as weaker than expected.

What’s more telling is this loss of Latino support for Democrats is paired with Republican success. Republicans elected Latinos up and down the ballot in these states a year ago, and three of these states elected Latino Republicans to statewide office – Senator Marco Rubio in Florida, Governor Brian Sandoval of New Mexico, and Governor Suzanna Martinez of New Mexico. In addition, every newly elected Latino in the US House of Representatives following the 2010 election is a Republican. 

The Obama team’s Latino strategy this year will no doubt be one of class warfare and division. They will deceptively attempt to paint Republicans as uncaring and extremist, and will try to divide Republicans on the issue of immigration. But if Team Obama does this, they will be missing the most important point of all – that Latino voters, like all voters, simply want to see leadership and results from this administration on the economy and unemployment. Unemployment is at 11% among the Latino community, and over two points higher than the national average. In the December Pew Hispanic Center study, 95% of Latinos cited the issue of jobs as extremely of very important – higher than any other issue.  

Republicans will compete in every Latino community this year. Republicans may not win a majority of the Latino vote, but again that wouldn’t be the entire story. The harder the president has to fight for the Latino vote means less attention and resources available to campaign elsewhere. It isn’t easy to wage a campaign on so many fronts, especially with the record this president must defend.

 ###