Political

Memorandum

TO:                      Interested Parties
FROM:                Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director
DATE:                 9/7/11
RE:                      A Long, Hot Summer

It was a long, hot summer for President Obama, indeed.

Consumer confidence at its lowest point since 2009; a downgrade to the country’s credit rating; volatile markets; zero job growth in August... more than enough reasons to need a vacation, right?.  After the President’s poorly-received, taxpayer-funded, campaign bus tour of the Midwest, the heat on President Obama was so great that Martha’s Vineyard must have been a tempting destination. (According to a recent survey by Rasmussen Reports, Obama was one of only a third of Americans who took a vacation at all this summer.)  Now that the summer is all but over, it might be helpful to point out to the Obama campaign what the damage another few months of failed leadership has inflicted.

Nationally, according to Gallup’s weekly tracking, Obama ended August with only 40% approving of the job he is doing – matching the lowest weekly approval of his Presidency.  His job approval among Hispanics, younger voters (age 18-29), and women also matched their lowest levels of his Presidency, and barely a third (35%) of Independents give him a passing grade.   Obama’s +8 approval margin at the end of May (50% approve, 42% disapprove) has turned into a -13 disapproval rate at the end of August (40% approve, 53% disapprove) resulting in a slide of 21 points.

The picture is just as bleak in critical presidential battleground states where President Obama’s approval ratings were already in dangerous territory before the summer, and have seen similar slides since then.

• In Michigan, between May 11^th and August 16^th, Obama’s approval margin slid 20 points from a -1 margin in May to a -21 margin in August.
• In Florida, the President’s approval margin slid 15 points from +8 in May to -7 in August.
• In North Carolina, the President’s approval margin slid 13 points from +5 in May to -8 in mid-July.
• In Pennsylvania, the President’s approval margin slid 11 points from even in May to -11 at the end of July.
• In Ohio, the President’s approval margin slid 8 points between May and July, falling from +4 to -4.

To make matters worse, yesterday’s Politico reported that only 26% of voters in their most recent Battleground Poll said they would “definitely” vote for Obama next year.  If the Obama campaign isn’t careful, this long hot summer could turn into a long cold winter.   Fortunately, there will be plenty of warm places for the President to take vacations when that time comes.