Weekly Republican Address

What we are watching:

Are President Obama’s own economists admitting that the stimulus has failed? The President released his annual Economic Report today which includes a prediction of employment growth of 95,000 jobs per month and details the White House’s policy agenda to address issues such as the deficit moving forward. Now let’s break down the numbers:

• The administration promised their stimulus package would create 3.5 million jobs by end of 2010.
• Since the stimulus was signed, we have lost 2.8 million jobs.
• That means, in order to meet his own pledge, President Obama needs to create 6.3 million jobs this year. 95,000 jobs per month would only result in 1.1 million.
• So even if this projection is true, Obama will still have a net job loss of 1.7 million since the stimulus passed.

Jobs Bill. Senate Democrats are scheduled to discuss jobs legislation during their weekly lunch which was moved to today because of weather.

In the news:

Sounds familiar. An AP analysis finds that Barack Obama’s message announcing his candidacy for president three years ago sounds a lot like his message today, big promises with little results to show for it.

About those tax hikes. In an interview with Business Week President Obama distances himself from candidate Obama, saying everything is on the table in terms of deficit reduction, including taxing working families making less than $250,000.

Talk of reconciliation. Nancy Pelosi’s talk of using reconciliation to pass the Democrats’ liberal agenda does not sound like bipartisanship.

More than a photo-op. Douglas Holtz-Eakin and Paul Howard examine the problems with the Democrats’ current health care bills, arguing that the public deserves a real discussion not a photo-op. The Democrats’ bills, “represent a new ‘achievement’ in terms of fiscal gimmicks, payoffs for special interests and vote-buying bribes,” writes Holtz-Eakin and Howard.

RNC Research Briefing: The RNC Research Department continues its week long retrospective on the stimulus legislation passed last year.  Plus we have the health care briefing “It Not Just the Process Mr. President” on American’s opposition to the substance of the healthcare bill. 

They Messed With Joe, Part Two

VIDEO RESEARCH BRIEFING:

THEY MESSED WITH JOE, PART TWO

A Week Long Stimulus Anniversary Retrospective

Click on above picture

OBAMA PLEDGED

FEBRUARY 24, 2009: Obama Pledged That Joe Biden Would Lead “Unprecedented Oversight Effort” For $862 Billion Stimulus, “Because Nobody Messes With Joe.” “Here in Washington, we’ve all seen how quickly good intentions can turn into broken promises and wasteful spending.  And with a plan of this scale comes enormous responsibility to get it right. That is why I have asked Vice President Biden to lead a tough, unprecedented oversight effort – because nobody messes with Joe.” (President Barack Obama, Address To Joint Session Of Congress, Washington, DC, 2/24/09)

OBAMA DELIVERED:

Exaggerated Job Counts From His $862 Billion Stimulus

School In Georgia Reported 280 Jobs Were Created By Stimulus, In Fact None Were Created. “At a small college in Georgia, $100,000 in stimulus funds paid for trucks for students to practice for commercial driver`s licenses. Another $100,000 went for a modular classroom. The school reported to the government that 280 jobs were created. In reality, not even close. That’s the number of students who benefited. It has nothing to do with jobs.” (CBS News’s “CBS Evening News,” 10/29/09)

In Florida, Pay Raises Were Counted As Stimulus Jobs. “In Cocoa, Florida, a childcare center reported 129 jobs created by a stimulus grant. In fact, no jobs were created. The money was really used to increase the compensation and benefits of 129 existing employees.” (CBS News’s “CBS Evening News,” 10/29/09)

The Wall Street Journal Reported White House's Second Stimulus Job Count “Overstated By At Least 20,000.” “The number of jobs the Obama administration credits to federal stimulus money could be overstated by at least 20,000 of the 640,000 claimed, a Wall Street Journal analysis found.” (Louis Radnofsky and Mauria Tamman, “White House Appears To Overstate Stimulus Jobs,” The Wall Street Journal, 11/4/09)

Nine Pairs Of Boots Supplied To Army Corps Of Engineers Counted As Nine Jobs. “A Kentucky shoe-store owner claimed to have created or saved nine jobs with an $889.60 contract to supply work boots to the Army Corps of Engineers. The owner said he supplied nine pairs of boots and that the mistake arose from confusion over the government form.” (Louis Radnofsky and Mauria Tamman, “White House Appears To Overstate Stimulus Jobs,” The Wall Street Journal, 11/4/09)

In Missouri, Stimulus “Saved” Jobs That Were Not In Jeopardy Of Being Lost. “In mid-August, a seven-made team of divers from Kentucky spent four days retrieving a broken steel turbine blade from the bottom of Stockton Lake.  … The diving company, which says it brought six full-time employees and one part-time worker to southwest Missouri and hired a local crane operator, reported on federal documents that the stimulus project created or saved 7.5 jobs. … Araya said none of the employees who worked on the project were in danger of losing his or her job, and if they didn't get the Stockton Dam job they would have been somewhere else in the country on inland underwater diving missions.”  (Chad Livengood, “Job-Creation Figures In Doubt,” News-Leader, 10/25/09)

OBAMA DENIES

Now Obama Claims That We “Have Not Seen Scandal Break Out” On Stimulus With Biden Leading Oversight Effort. “[L]et me just say, by the way, give a compliment to Vice President Biden. He and his team have overseen the Recovery Act. You have not seen scandal break out on a huge endeavor.” (President Barack Obama, Remarks At Town Hall Meeting, Tampa, FL, 1/28/10)

IT'S NOT JUST THE PROCESS, MR. PRESIDENT

Americans Strongly Oppose The Substance Of Obama's Government-Run Health Care Experiment 

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View This Research Briefing At GOP.com

OBAMA CLAIMS: "The Public Has Soured On The Process That They Saw Over The Past Year.  I Think That Actually Contaminates How They View The Substance Of The Bills." (Carrie Budoff Brown, Obama: No 'Political Theater,'" Politico's "Live Pulse" Blog, 2/9/10)

BUT AMERICANS KNOW COSTS WILL GO UP, AND THEY DON'T LIKE IT 

Robert Wood Johnson Foundation: "30.5 Percent Said Their Personal Finances Would Be Worse Under A Health Care Overhaul, Compared To 24.5 Percent Last Month." (Erica Werner, "Poll Shows Growing Fears On Health Care Overhaul," The Associated Press, 1/25/10)

CBO Says Premiums Would Be Higher Under Reform Than Without Under The Senate Dems' Plan For Those Who Don't Get Employer-Based Health Care. "CBO and JCT estimate that the average premium per person covered (including dependents) for new nongroup policies would be about 10 percent to 13 percent higher in 2016 than the average premium for nongroup coverage in that same year under current law." (Douglas W. Elmendorf, Letter To Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), 11/30/09)

AND AMERICANS KNOW THEY'LL LOSE WHAT THEY HAVE

"33 Percent Of Respondents Said They Believed Their Access To Care Would Be Worse If A Health Care Overhaul Occurred, A Jump From 25 Percent In The [Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] Poll Released Last Month." (Erica Werner, "Poll Shows Growing Fears On Health Care Overhaul," The Associated Press, 1/25/10)

• Businesses To Drop Benefits Or Raise Out-Of-Pocket Costs For Their Plans. "Two-thirds of employers would raise deductibles, change insurers or scale back coverage to avoid the so-called Cadillac tax on high-cost benefits proposed in the Senate Democrats' health care bill, according to a survey released today by consulting firm Mercer." (Julie Appleby, "New Survey: 'Cadillac Tax' Would Force Employers To Trim Health Insurance Costs," Kaiser Health News, 12/3/09)

"However, 52% Of Voters Fear That They Could Be Forced To Change Insurance If The Health Care Legislation Passes." ("Health Care Reform," Rasmussen Reports, 1/22/10)

• Mayo Clinic Says Government-Run Health Care Will Force Doctors To Drop Patients. "[L]awmakers are on track to approve across-the-board federal payment reductions of $155 billion over 10 years for hospitals ... Mayo and similar health systems object to the sweeping cuts. 'Across-the-board cuts will be harmful to everyone and we think it is particularly bad to penalize the high-value organizations,' said Jeff Korsmo, executive director of the Mayo Clinic Health Policy Center. 'We will have to violate our values in order to stay in business and reduce our access to government patients.'" (Phil Galewitz, "'Model' Health Systems Press Case For Medicare Fix In Reform," Kaiser Health News, 7/20/09)

• Obama's Promise That You Can Keep Your Doctor And Your Plan Is "Not Literally True Or Enforceable." "Mr. Obama has said repeatedly, as he told the American Medical Association in June: 'If you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor, period. If you like your health care plan, you'll be able to keep your health care plan, period. No one will take it away, no matter what.' These assurances reflect an aspiration, but may not be literally true or enforceable." (Robert Pear & David Herszenhorn, "A Primer On The Details Of Health Care Reform," The New York Times, 8/10/09)

AND AMERICAN SENIORS KNOW THEIR MEDICARE BENEFITS WILL BE CUT

"[J]ust 35% Of Seniors Favor The Plan While 62% Oppose It." ("Health Care Reform," Rasmussen Reports, 1/22/10)

• Dems Admit Cuts Could Force Doctors To Decline Seniors On Medicare. "Rep. Eric Massa [D-NY] said tightening provider payments could lead to access problems for patients. 'We will force doctors to decline Medicare patients,' he said after a raucous town-hall meeting in Upstate New York. 'If we believe these savings are there, let's test the concept. But we can't hinge the entire funding of this bill on these not-yet-seen savings.'" (Ceci Connolly, "Seniors Remain Wary Of Health-Care Reform," The Washington Post, 8/9/09)

• CBO Director Says Obama's Cuts To Medicare Advantage Means Many Seniors Seeing Benefits Cut In Half. SEN. MIKE CRAPO (R-ID): "So approximately half of the additional benefit would be lost to those current Medicare Advantage policy holders." ELMENDORF: "Those who would be enrolled otherwise under current law, yes..." (Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) And CBO Director Douglas W. Elmendorf, Senate Finance Committee Markup Hearing, 9/22/09)

• 20 States Would See More Than 50,000 Seniors Being Dropped From Medicare Advantage. "If Congress sets MA rates at the level of county FFS spending, 11 states are predicted to lose more than 100,000 MA enrollees each, including: California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Massachusetts, Wisconsin and Illinois. An additional 13 states would lose between 50,000 and 100,000 MA enrollees, including: Missouri, North Carolina, New Jersey, Alabama, Georgia, Minnesota, Florida, New York, Louisiana, Kentucky, Virginia, Indiana and Tennessee." (Adam Atherly, Ph.D. and Kenneth E. Thorpe, Ph.D., Emory School Of Public Health, "The Impact Of Reductions In Medicare Advantage Funding On Beneficiaries," 4/07)

AND AMERICANS KNOW THAT IT'LL BREAK THE BUDGET

"Adding To Concerns About Paying For The Plan Is The Fact That 78% Of Voters Expect It To Cost More Than Projected." ("Health Care Reform," Rasmussen Reports, 1/22/10)

• David Broder, Dean Of The Washington Press Corps, Said Reid And Pelosi's Bills "Are Budget-Busters." "While the CBO said that both the House-passed bill and the one Reid has drafted meet Obama's test by being budget-neutral, every expert I have talked to says that the public has it right. These bills, as they stand, are budget-busters." (David S. Broder, Op-Ed, "A Budget-Buster In The Making," The Washington Post, 11/22/09)

• Washington Post Editorial Board Says Reform Bills Pretend To Be Budget Neutral Because Of "A Fiscal Sleight Of Hand." "First off, $247 billion -- the 10-year cost of the fix -- is one whopper of a 'discrepancy.' ... President Obama has vowed that health reform will not add a single dime to the deficit -- but he is seemingly unfazed about adding more than a quarter-trillion dollars to the deficit by changing the Medicare reimbursement formula without finding a way to pay for it. ... This latest maneuver only heightens the fiscal irresponsibility of what already was a fiscal sleight of hand." (Editorial, "2.47 Trillion Dimes," The Washington Post, 10/19/09)

• The "Doc Fix" Provision That Would Add $250 Billion To The Deficit Is Not Included In The Democrats' List Price For Their Health Care Experiment. (Page 17, Douglas W. Elmendorf, Letter To Senator Harry Reid, 11/18/09)