Research Briefing

Obama Trying To Rescue Harry Reid’s Faltering Campaign, But Nevadans Are Just Sick Of Him

PRESIDENT OBAMA: “I Know It's An Election Year.  …[I]t's Clear That Campaign Fever Has Come Even Earlier Than Usual.  But We Still Need To Govern.” (President Barack Obama, State Of The Union Address, Washington, DC, 1/27/10)

“AMERICA’S MOST POWERFUL SENATOR” CAN’T SAVE HIMSELF …

Despite Feverishly Running Ads For Weeks “To Boost His Image,” Reid Failed To Improve Poll Numbers. “Nevadans aren't warming up to Sen. Harry Reid, despite plenty of early advertising designed to boost his image, a new poll shows. Just 38 percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Senate majority leader, the same percentage as in October and 1 point higher than in August. The survey of 625 registered Nevada voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research suggests the promotional bombardment that Reid launched more than six weeks ago has yet to hit its target.” (Benjamin Spillman, “Senate Race: Reid In A Battle, Poll Reveals,” Las Vegas Review Journal, 12/4/09)

• One Of Harry Reid’s Ads Declared That “He’s The Most Powerful Senator Nevada Has Ever Had” And “America’s Most Powerful Senator.” (Friends Of Harry Reid, “Determination,” TV Ad, 11/12/10)
  
  
• “‘I'd be worried,’ said Michael Franz, an assistant professor at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine, who studies political advertising. ‘I'd stop if I had aired ads for two or three weeks and it wasn't moving the needle.’” (Benjamin Spillman, “Senate Race: Reid In A Battle, Poll Reveals,” Las Vegas Review Journal, 12/4/09)

According To Public Policy Polling, Reid’s Job Approval Rating In Nevada Is Stuck At 36 Percent. (Public Policy Polling, 763 LV, MoE +/- 3.6%, 1/11-12/10)

• According To A Daily Kos / Research 2000 Poll, Reid’s Personal Favorability Rating Among Nevadans Is Just 34 Percent While His Unfavorable Rating Is 55 Percent. (Daily Kos / Research 2000 Poll, 600 LVs, MoE +/- 4%, 1/18-20/10)

THAT’S WHY OBAMA’S CAMPAIGN FEVER HAS ROLLED INTO VEGAS IN ATTEMPT TO SAVE REID

While In Nevada, Obama Headlining DNC Fundraiser, Holding Town Hall With Reid. “In Nevada, which has the second-highest jobless rate in the nation and the highest level of home-mortgage foreclosures, the president will headline a Democratic National Committee fund raiser Thursday evening. On Friday, flanked by Mr. Reid, he will hold a town-hall meeting and speak to business leaders.” (Elizabeth Williamson & Naftali Bendavid, “Obama Goes West to Aid Tight Races,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/18/10)

Obama’s Trip “Highlights The Predicament” Reid Is In As One Of The “Most Endangered” Senators. “Still, it highlights the predicament facing Mr. Reid, one of the most powerful Democrats in Washington and also one of its most endangered. Most recently he has come under fire for scotching a bipartisan deal on an $85 billion jobs bill—which he nixed for including a number of non-employment spending measures—in favor of a slimmed-down $15 billion bill.” (Elizabeth Williamson & Naftali Bendavid, “Obama Goes West to Aid Tight Races,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/18/10)

BUT REID IN TROUBLE BECAUSE HE PUSHED OBAMA’S LIBERAL AGENDA BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY, USING TACTICS THAT MADE FELLOW DEM GIVE UP RE-ELECTION

Reid “Crafting Bills One Favor At A Time” To Push Through Obama Policies. “Democrats' concerns will be addressed in individual amendments, but many others will be crowded into an omnibus ‘manager's amendment,’ a package Reid is expected to offer at the end of the process that will include many of the perks and fixes that members of his caucus are requesting. As a longtime member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, where crafting bills is done one favor at a time, Reid is hardly a stranger to deal-making.” (Shailagh Murray, “Reid's Recipe For Getting Health-Care Deal Done,” The Washington Post, 12/4/09)

• Health Care Bill Was Loaded With “Special Goodies” For Senators To Claim Credit For. “The term ‘Christmas tree’ has its own special meaning on Capitol Hill. It usually refers to a bill that has been decorated with ‘ornaments,’ loaded up with special goodies for the folks back home. But the term is particularly apt this week, as Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader, works to have a vote on a heavily festooned health care bill by Christmas Eve.” (Katherine Q. Seeyle, “Senators Add The Ornaments And Trimmings,” The New York Times’s “Prescriptions” Blog, 12/19/09)

Reid Even Killed Bipartisan Jobs Bill “Just Hours After The Deal Was Announced.” “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said Thursday that he was scrapping a draft of a bipartisan jobs bill proposed by Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) and ranking member Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), just hours after the deal was announced. Reid told reporters that when the Senate returns from the Presidents Day on Feb. 22, ‘we will move to a smaller package than has been talked about in the press,’ and that package would only include a one-year extension of the highway act, a Build America Bonds provision, a small-business tax program and a small-business tax credit bill …” (John Stanton, “Reid Torpedoes Baucus-Grassley Jobs Deal,” Roll Call, 2/11/10)

In Announcing Retirement, Bayh Said Reid’s Killing Of Bipartisan Jobs Bill Latest Of Many Reasons For Leaving Congress. “After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so by serving in Congress has waned … There is too much partisanship and not enough progress … Just last week, a major piece of legislation to create jobs -- the public’s top priority – fell apart … I love working for the people of Indiana, I love helping our citizens make the most of their lives, but I do not love Congress. I will not, therefore, be a candidate for election to the Senate this November.” (Sen. Evan Bayh, “Bayh Announces He Will Not Seek A Third Term,” Press Release, 2/15/10)

• “One Democratic Source Said Reid’s Decision Last Week To Shelve A Bipartisan Jobs Package … Played A Role In Bayh’s Decision … ‘It Was Yet An Additional Thing That Made Him Realize He Hates The Senate,’ Said The Source.” (David M. Drucker, “Leaders Knew Bayh Was Mulling Retirement,” Roll Call, 2/15/10)
  
  
• That Why Bayh Said This Morning: “[I]f I Could Create One Job In The Private Sector By Helping To Grow A Business, That Would Be One More Than Congress Has Created In The Last Six Months.” (CBS’ “The Early Show,” 2/16/10)