Research Briefing

Obama Heads To Pennsylvania Today To Pitch The Health Care Bill That Is Sinking Specter’s Re-election Hopes

PRESIDENT OBAMA: “I Know It's An Election Year.  …[I]t's Clear That Campaign Fever Has Come Even Earlier Than Usual.  But We Still Need To Govern.” (President Barack Obama, State Of The Union Address, Washington, DC, 1/27/10)

OBAMA’S CAMPAIGN FEVER SWINGS THROUGH PA TODAY, TO PITCH HEALTH CARE EXPERIMENT IN SPECTER’S BACKYARD

Obama Traveling To Philadelphia To Sell Struggling Health Care Bill. “President Barack Obama is coming to the Philadelphia area as part of his pitch for health care reform. The White House announced Friday that Obama will speak at Arcadia University in Glenside on Monday morning.” (“Obama To Visit Pa. With Insurance Reform Pitch,” The Associated Press, 3/5/10)

• White House Says Obama Will “Use All Tactics At His Disposal At His Disposal” To Push Bill Through. “The final push by Mr. Obama amounts to a critical test of his powers of persuasion. Democrats could face a tough decision, balancing the risk of passing potentially unpopular legislation against the risk of inaction and the stigma of having labored for more than a year to produce nothing… White House aides vowed the president would use all tactics at his disposal to rally support. That includes speeches around the country, starting with a trip to Philadelphia on Monday, media interviews, and direct communication with supporters.” (Laura Meckler & Janet Adamy, “President Launches Last Push on Health-Care Overhaul,” The Wall Street Journal, 3/3/10)

OBAMA PICKED PENN FOR PITCH BECAUSE SPECTER’S CAMPAIGN IS IN PERIL …

According to February Franklin And Marshall Poll, Only 30 Percent Of Pennsylvanians Approve Of The Job Specter Is Doing In The Senate, While 62 Percent Disapprove. (Franklin and Marshall College Poll, 954 RV, MoE 3.2% 2/15-21/10)

• Last March When Health Care Debate Began, Specter’s Approval Rating Was 52 Percent, With Only 37 Percent Disapproving. (Franklin and Marshall College Poll, 586 RV, MoE 4% 3/17-22/09)

Among Likely Voters, Specter Trails Potential Republican Opponent Former Rep. Pat Toomey By 10 Points. (Franklin and Marshall College Poll, 954 RV, MoE 3.2% 2/15-21/10)

Residents Think “Pennsylvania Needs A New Senator.” “Ten months after the longtime Republican switched parties, a lot of people also think Pennsylvania needs a new senator, view Specter unfavorably and like him far less than former Rep. Pat Toomey, the favorite for the Republican Senate nomination. Together, the results signal Specter is very vulnerable.” (Borys Krawczeniuk, “Specter faces tough road to re-election,” [Pottsville, PA] Republican Herald, 2/7/10)

… BUT WASHINGTON’S FOCUS ON HEALTH CARE EXPERIMENT IS REASON SPECTER IS STRUGGLING

When Specter Switched Parties Last April, He Said He Would “Not Be An Automatic 60th Vote” For Democrats “One item that I want to emphasize, that I will not be changing my own personal independence or my own approach to individual issues. I will not be an automatic 60th vote. I note that some of the news stories since my statement was released this morning are taking a look at the 60th vote, and I will not be an automatic 60th vote.” (Sen. Arlen Specter, Press Conference, 4/28/09)

But Sure Enough, Specter Was The 60^th Vote That Allowed The Senate To Ram Their Health Care Bill Through In December. (Motion to Invoke Cloture on H.R. 3590, Roll Call Vote #395, Agreed To R: 0-39 R; D: 58-0; I: 2-0, 12/23/09)

Now Only 37 Percent Of Pennsylvanians Approve Of Obama’s Health Care Reform Plan, While 52 Percent Disapprove. (Quinnipiac Poll, 1,452 RV, MoE 3.9% 2/22-28/10)

Meanwhile Pennsylvania Has Lost Over 122,000 Jobs Since The Health Care Debate Started. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov, Accessed 3/5/10)

And The Economy And Jobs Will Be Pennsylvanians’ “Single Most Important Issue” In Their Senate Vote. (Franklin and Marshall College Poll, 954 RV, MoE 3.2% 2/15-21/10)