Research Briefing

Look, Up In The Sky, It's Obama's “Full Support” Flying Right Past Arlen Specter

Robert Gibbs: “[L]et me just repeat what the President told Senator Specter this morning:  that he has the President's full support; that he's thrilled that he's switched parties and is a Democrat …” (Robert Gibbs, Press, Briefing, Washington, DC, 4/28/09)

PA Gov. Ed Rendell: “Well, [the President is] not coming to Pennsylvania…” (MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” 5/13/10)

ON DAY OF TOUGH PRIMARY FOR SEN. ARLEN SPECTER, OBAMA WILL FLY RIGHT PAST PENNSYLVANIA

Chuck Todd: “He’s got a schedule on Tuesday, the President does. He is gonna be traveling to Youngstown, Ohio. To get to Youngstown, Ohio, you have to actually fly over Pennsylvania.” (MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” 5/14/10)

• Obama Will Visit Steel Pipe Production Facility In Youngstown, Ohio Tomorrow. “President Barack Obama will visit V&M Star in the Youngstown area on Tuesday, an opportunity to talk about economic recovery fueled at least partly by the economic stimulus bill passed last year. The trip was announced yesterday but the specific loation was not known until now. … News of the V&M expansion was cheered by Gov. Ted Strickland in February, who credited Ohio's use of $20 million in stimulus money that helped pay for road improvements and the relocation of rail lines near the current V&M Star Steel Pipe Production Facility.” (Stephen Kohh, “President Obama's Destination: A Youngstown-Area Steel Plant Expanding With Stimulus Help,” Cleveland.Com, 5/14/10)

BECAUSE PREVIOUS CAMPAIGN STOPS HAVE BACKFIRED

In Massachusetts Special Election, President Obama Was Unable “To Motivate Enough Dems To Push Coakley Over The Top.” “In the last week, Dems sent reinforcements to MA, including top communications and political strategists, as well as surrogates like ex-Pres. Bill Clinton. On Sunday, Pres. Obama himself made an appearance, though it failed to motivate enough Dems to push Coakley over the top.” (Reid Wilson, “Brown Wins, Robs Dems Of Filibuster-Proof Majority,” National Journal, 1/19/10)

• “‘My Message To My Clients? Jump Ship Now,’ Said One Democratic Operative Who Advises A Number Of Targeted Members Of Congress. ‘Obama Can't Help You.’” (Chris Cillizza, “Scott Brown Wins Massachusetts Senate Special Election Race,” The Washington Post, 1/19/10)

Obama Campaigned For Creigh Deeds To Salvage Win In Virginia, "Because A Loss Could Be Blamed On The Administration." "But the White House is doing what it can to help him win, because a loss could be blamed on the administration. The Oval Office has appealed to the nation's first elected black governor, Virginia's L. Douglas Wilder, to back Deeds." ("Obama Heads To Va. For Rally, Fundraiser," The Associated Press, 8/6/09)

• But Creigh Deeds Said Obama And Washington Democrats “Made It Very Tough” For Him In Race. Creigh Deeds: "Frankly, a lot of what’s going on in Washington has made it very tough ... We had a very tough August because people were just uncomfortable with the spending; they were uncomfortable with a lot of what was going on, a lot of the noise that was coming out of Washington, D.C." (Jonathan Martin, "Deeds Points Finger At Washington," Politico, 10/6/09)

“[I]n New Jersey, the White House took a firm hand in guiding Mr. Corzine’s re-election campaign, culminating in rallies featuring the president campaigning with the governor in Newark and Camden on Sunday [before the election].” (David M. Halbfinger And Ian Urbina, “Republicans Bask In Glow Of Victories In N.J. And Va.,” The New York Times, 11/4/09)

• But The “All-Out Obama Administration Push To Salvage” Corzine’s Campaign “Fell On Deaf Ears.” “Republican Chris Christie’s victory over Gov. Jon Corzine Tuesday came despite an all-out Obama administration push to salvage the one race that seemed winnable in an uphill year for Democrats… the plea by Obama to Democrats to come out in strong numbers appeared to fall on deaf ears. Corzine underperformed in some of the state’s heavily Democratic counties compared to his election four years ago.” (Jonathan Martin, “Christie tops Corzine in New Jersey,” Politico, 11/3/09)

AND OBAMA’S PLUMMETING POPULARITY IN PA SHOWS THIS RACE WOULD BE NO DIFFERENT

Dem Campaign Chief Says Obama Knows There Are Places “Where He Is Not As Strong.” “‘I think the president realizes there are some districts where he is strong and some districts where he is not as strong, so he will take the lead from members of Congress,’ Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said on MSNBC. Many Democrats from traditionally Republican districts are considered vulnerable to losing their reelection bids, and Van Hollen's comments suggested they would be better served by eschewing an appearance with Obama.” (Jordan Fabian, “Van Hollen: Obama Picks His Spots When Campaigning,” The Hill, 5/14/10)

Less Than Two Months Ago, Specter Led Democratic Primary Rival Rep. Joe Sestak By 21 Points: 53 Percent To 32 Percent. (Quinnipiac University, 921 LV, MoE 3.2% 3/31/10 – 4/5/10)

• And Now It’s A Dead Heat, With One Poll Showing Specter Down By As Much As 9 Points (Suffolk University, 400 LV, MoE 4.9%, 5/11-13/10)

Last Year, When Obama’s Approval Rating In Pennsylvania Was At 66 Percent, Sen. Specter’s Approval Rating Was At 56 Percent. (Quinnipiac Poll, 1120 RV, MoE +/- 2.9%, 4/29-5/3/09)

Now Obama’s Approval Has Dropped 20 Points To Just 46 Percent In The State, And Specter Has Dropped Off Right With Him By 18 Points To 38 Percent. (Quinnipiac Poll, 1161 LV, MoE +/- 2.9%, 5/5-10/10)