Research Briefing

Collapsing Deadlines, Collapsing Support From Congressional Democrats For Obama’s Government-Run Health Care Proposal

WHY IS OBAMA MOVING AWAY FROM HIS AUGUST “MAKE-OR-BREAK” DEADLINE?

LAST MONTH: Obama Sets August “Make-Or-Break” Deadline For Government-Run Health Care. “So we can't afford to put this off, and the dedicated public servants who are gathered here today understand that and they are ready to get going, and this window between now and the August recess I think is going to be the make-or-break period.  This is the time where we've got to get this running.” (President Barack Obama, Remarks Before Meeting With Senate Democrats To Discuss Health Care, The White House, 6/2/09)

WEDNESDAY, JULY 15: Obama Expresses Urgency To Get Government-Run Health Care Done By August. “Now, this progress should make us hopeful, but it can't make us complacent. It should instead provide the urgency for both the House and the Senate to finish their critical work on health reform before the August recess.” (President Barack Obama, Remarks By The President On Health Care Reform, White House, 7/15/09)

FRIDAY, JULY 17: Mention Of August Deadline Disappears From Obama’s Remarks. “In his most recent remarks, President Obama has stopped mentioning what had been his mantra — that the House and Senate finish their health-care bills by the August recess — and switched to a less specific call to fast action… In remarks Friday in the White House Diplomatic Room, Obama said ‘now is not the time to slow down’ but only promised health care reform would ‘happen this year.’” (Jonathan Martin, “Obama Not Stressing Aug. Deadline,” Politico, 7/18/09)

TODAY: Obama’s Health Secretary Only “Hopeful” For Legislation To Be Done By August. NBC’s DAVID GREGORY: “But it looks like that deadline could flip.” HHS SECRETARY KATHLEEN SEBELIUS: “Well, hopefully they'll get it done before the August recess.” (NBC’s “Meet The Press,” 7/19/09)

IS IT BECAUSE CBO SAYS OBAMA’S $1 TRILLION PLAN WILL LEAD TO RISING COSTS, DEFICITS?

THURSDAY, JULY 16: CBO Director Blasts Government-Run Health Care Plan For Not Making “Fundamental Changes” To Reduce Costs. “Under questioning by members of the Senate Budget Committee, CBO director Douglas Elmendorf said bills crafted by House leaders and the Senate health committee do not propose ‘the sort of fundamental changes that would be necessary to reduce the trajectory of federal health spending by a significant amount.’ ‘On the contrary,’ Elmendorf said, ‘the legislation significantly expands the federal responsibility for health care costs.’” (Lori Montgomery, “CBO Chief Criticizes Democrats’ Health Reform Measures,” The Washington Post, 7/16/09)

FRIDAY, JULY 17: CBO Says Government-Run Health Care Hundreds Of Billions To The Deficit. “According to CBO’s and JCT’s assessment, enacting H.R. 3200 would result in a net increase in the federal budget deficit of $239 billion over the 2010-2019 period. That estimate reflects a projected 10-year cost of the bill’s insurance coverage provisions of $1,042 billion, partly offset by net spending changes that CBO estimates would save $219 billion over the same period, and by revenue provisions that JCT estimates would increase federal revenues by about $583 billion over those 10 years.” (Douglas W. Elmendorf, CBO Director, Letter to Charles B. Rangel, 7/17/09)

TODAY: Obama’s Health Secretary Admits Democrats’ Plan “Won’t Do Enough Over Time” To Contain Costs. NBC’s DAVID GREGORY: “Wait, this is a huge blow it seems like on the face of it, if the priority is lowering costs, you've got the person who is in charge with a nonpartisan lens saying it's not going to contain costs. That was goal number one. It doesn't appear to be getting achieved through this.” HHS SECRETARY KATHLEEN SEBELIUS: ” I think, first of all, it's clear that this will bring costs down to a degree. It won't do enough over time ….” (NBC’s “Meet The Press,” 7/19/09)

OR IS IT BECAUSE CONGRESSIONAL DEMS REALIZE THEY’RE HEADED IN “WRONG DIRECTION?”

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) Says Government-Run Health Care Proposal Going In “Wrong Direction.” “‘The legislative process right now is going in the wrong direction,’ said Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, … ‘[J]ust to try to get it passed in the Senate before we leave for the August recess seems just about impossible. It’s just too big a bill.’”  (Robert Pear And David Herszenhorn, “Democrats Grow Wary As Health Bill Advances,” The New York Times, 7/17/09)

Rep. Mike Ross (D-AR) Leading Democrat Opposition To Rising Costs, Tax Increases In Democrats’ Plan. C-SPAN’s STEVE SCULLY: “Just to be clear. Are you saying the bill in its current form would not pass the Democratic-controlled house?” REP. MIKE ROSS: “Correct … It increases the debt in not just the short term, which some could understand it might short term, but he's indicated it will increase the cost long term. You've got new Democratic members, freshmen, who are indicating that they think it's a bad idea to propose the kind of tax increase there's been proposed at this time … This bill doesn't go nearly far enough toward containing the costs.” (C-SPAN’s “Newsmakers,” 7/19/09)

• Ross Says Democrats’ Plan Won’t Pass In Committee Or On House Floor. REP. MIKE ROSS: “So to answer your question, there are seven of us on the Energy and Commerce Committee that are blue dog members. We're joined at the hip on this … And then in terms of the Democratic caucus as a whole, there are a number of people, I think they would be a significant number of votes short in passing it on the house floor right now. They certainly don't have the seven votes required, there are seven of us on the committee.” (C-SPAN’s “Newsmakers,” 7/19/09)

Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO) Says Tax Increases To Pay For Government-Run Health Care Will Lead To More Job Loss. “Representative Jared Polis, a freshman Democrat from Colorado who voted against the bill approved Friday in the Education and Labor Committee, said he worried that the new taxes ‘could cost jobs in a recession.’” (Robert Pear And David Herszenhorn, “Democrats Grow Wary As Health Bill Advances,” The New York Times, 7/17/09)

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) Voices Opposition To Government Takeover Of Health Insurance. “Others worry that a government-run health plan, to be created under the House bill, would underpay doctors and hospitals by using Medicare reimbursement rates. ‘I have a serious problem with the public plan in this bill because it’s based on Medicare rates,’ Representative Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota said. ‘North Dakota is underpaid by Medicare.’” (Robert Pear And David Herszenhorn, “Democrats Grow Wary As Health Bill Advances,” The New York Times, 7/17/09)