Research Briefing

Trust In Obama Slips, Skepticism About Government-Run Health Care In Polling And Town Halls

POLLS SHOW DECREASING TRUST, RISING DISAPPROVAL IN OBAMA, DEMS ON HEALTH CARE

Trust In Obama, Democrats Has Fallen Dramatically. “[T]he number of Americans who say they trust the president has fallen from 66 percent to 54 percent … the percentage of those who say they do not trust the president has jumped from 31 to 42. The president’s party has taken a similar hit since the last Public Trust Monitor poll, with only 42 percent of respondents saying that they trust the Democratic Party, compared with 52 percent who do not. The party’s numbers are nearly the inverse of March’s survey, in which 52 percent said they trusted Democrats and 42 percent did not.” (Andy Barr, “Poll: Public Losing Trust In Obama,” Politico, 7/21/09)

More Americans Disapprove Of Obama’s Handling Of Health Care Than Those Who Approve. “Qualms about President Obama's stewardship of the economy are growing, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, as Americans become more pessimistic about when they predict the recession will end… Lower ratings could make it more difficult for him to prevail on his top legislative priority… By 50%-44%, they disapprove of how he is handling health care policy.” (Susan Page, “Poll: Less Faith In Obama's Economic Abilities,” USA Today, 7/20/09)

Americans Say Government-Run Health Care Would Make System Worse, Decrease Quality And Increase Costs. “Asked what effect a government-managed health care coverage option would have on access to health services, 40 percent said it would make the situation worse, 38 percent said it would make it better and 22 percent said it would remain the same. Asked what its effect would be on the quality of health care, 42 percent said it would make health care worse, 33 percent said it would make it better and 25 percent said it would not have an effect. Nearly half of respondents — 44 percent — believe government-managed coverage will increase the price of health care. Only 27 percent think a government-managed health care system would lower costs, while 29 percent said prices would remain the same.” (Andy Barr, “Poll: Public Losing Trust In Obama,” Politico, 7/21/09)

DISAPPROVAL SHOWING AT TOWN HALL MEETINGS AS DEMS FACE HOSTILE CITIZENS

Obama’s Health Secretary Faced Tough Audience In Louisiana. “Skeptical audience members at Monday's forum in Reserve peppered the cabinet members with questions and critical remarks about health care legislation working its way through Congress… Some of the audience members in Reserve wore T-shirts that read, ‘Hands Off My Health Care,’ and the loudest cheers were reserved for people who criticized the Obama administration's health care plans.” (Michael Kunzelman, “Cabinet Members Tout Obama’s Health Care Plans,” The Associated Press, 7/20/09)

• Alton Landry Of LaPlace: “Our government, to be quite candid, has not done a very superb job of operating Medicare, Social Security, and other similar type programs. So what reason do we have to believe that they’ll do a better job operating a government operated health care plan?” (WVUE’s “Fox 8 News at 5,” 7/20/09)

• Emile Hotard, Retired Navy Veteran: “I see people from Canada every year when I go to Florida, and they're not too sure that the health care they have is good. So why will ours in the United States be better?” (Michael Kunzelman, “Cabinet Members Tout Obama’s Health Care Plans,” The Associated Press, 7/20/09)

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) Faced Angry Citizens As Well. “Maryland Senator Ben Cardin … faced an audience here of about 300 Monday evening for what he called a town hall meeting on the topic that is the number one item on President Obama's domestic agenda … Perhaps the most controversial, came from Robert Broadus of Clinton, Maryland, an audience member who had lost his job and replaced it with one that paid him far less money. (“Cardin Town Hall Meeting On Health Care Gets Angry,” WUSA-TV, 7/21/09)

• Robert Broadus Of Clinton, MD: “‘I decided not to get the health insurance. That's working out for me because I'm able to save that extra money and give it to my family members and use it on myself. Senator Cardin, I want to know are you going to tell me an individual ... that I have to buy health care or else you're going to fine me 25 hundred dollars every year if I don't get it?’ … Broadus said in an increasingly emotional voice and to scattered applause.” (“Cardin Town Hall Meeting On Health Care Gets Angry,” WUSA-TV, 7/21/09)

RISING DISAPPROVAL MIGHT BE WHY MEETING AUGUST DEADLINE BECOMING LESS LIKELY

House Committee Cancels Mark-Up Because They Can’t Guarantee Blue Dog Cooperation. “The House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee has canceled its Tuesday debate and vote on healthcare legislation but has kept a Wednesday meeting on its schedule. The Democratic-led committee has been struggling to keep a group of fiscally conservative Democrats on board with the nearly $1 trillion, 10-year healthcare overhaul. The group, known as the Blue Dog Democrats, has said they cannot support legislation that would increase the massive federal budget deficit.” (“House Panel Cancels Tuesday Healthcare Meeting,” Reuters, 7/21/09)

House Majority Leader Hoyer (D-MD) Says Divisions Among Democrats Might Delay Bill Past August. “House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer says House Democrats are struggling to reach consensus on overhauling health care, a divide that could delay House approval of a plan beyond lawmakers' scheduled vacation in August … Hoyer, D-Md., said Tuesday there is still disagreement on proposed tax increases on the wealthy, and whether to establish a government-run insurance program to compete with private plans. Hoyer said House Democrats will continue to negotiate in private, with the goal of passing a plan next week. He downplayed the idea of keeping lawmakers in session while negotiations continue, but wouldn't rule it out.” (“Senior Democrat Says No Consensus On Health Bill,” The Associated Press, 7/21/09)

Congressional Aides Suggest Tax Increases Will Prevent Floor Votes Before Recess. “House and Senate leaders had been pressing for floor votes in each chamber before lawmakers depart for the August summer recess. But Congressional aides said that it was increasingly clear the Senate would not be ready to vote on its bill before its recess begins on Aug. 8, and that House Democrats seemed unwilling to vote to raise taxes without knowing where the Senate stood.” (David Herszenhorn And Robert Pear, “Democrats May Limit Tax Increases for Health Care Plan,” The New York Times, 7/20/09)

MEANWHILE, NEW REPORTS SHOW HIGHER COSTS, LITTLE TO NO SAVINGS

Analysis Shows Government-Run Health Care Costs $1.6 Trillion (Not $1 Trillion), Includes $800 Billion In Tax Increases, $239 Billion Deficit. “Democrats argue the number should be $1 trillion, a number provided by the Congressional Budget Office for the net cost of the portion of the bill affecting health insurance, and they boasted in press releases that the bill actually creates a $6 billion surplus over the coming decade. But the gross cost of the bill is much higher, more than $1.6 trillion, according to a Roll Call analysis of the CBO data. And despite more than $800 billion in tax and fee hikes, it actually adds $239 billion to the deficit ...” (Steven Dennis, “Analysis: House Health Care Bill’s Price Tag Tops $1.6 Trillion,” Roll Call, 7/20/09)

• Democrats’ Claim Of $1 Trillion Price Tag Doesn’t Include Major Pieces Of Plan. “The $1 trillion figure Democrats want reporters to use leaves out major pieces of the bill — notably a $245 billion provision intended to prevent a scheduled cut to doctors’ pay under Medicare. Democrats have conveniently decided to exempt that provision from their pay-as-you-go budget rule.” (Steven Dennis, “Analysis: House Health Care Bill’s Price Tag Tops $1.6 Trillion,” Roll Call, 7/20/09)

CBO Finds House Dems’ Bill Contains No Savings From Elimination Or Reduction Of Waste, Fraud, And Abuse. (Page 15, 17, Douglas Elmendorf, CBO Director, Letter to Rep. Charles Rangel, 7/17/09)

Dems Should Listen To Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) Who’s More Concerned With Cost Than Deadlines. “All the stars would have to be in alignment to get it done in the next three weeks. But what's critically important here is that we do get bending the cost curve right and virtually every economist that's come before us has said, reducing the tax subsidy for health care, which is $2.4 trillion over the next ten years should be part of it.” (MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” 7/20/09)