Research Briefing

Obama Brand Taking Hits While Anger Brewing Among Senate Dems, Boiling Over Between House Dems

OBAMA’S PRIMARY CARE PHYSICIAN FOR 18 YEARS WEIGHS IN: “‘I do oppose the legislation,’ [Chicago physician David] Scheiner said. ‘I think it will make things more complicated than ever.’” (Janet Adamy, “Obama’s Former Doctor Criticizes Health Care Overhaul,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/30/09)

BY THE NUMBERS: GROWING DOUBTS ABOUT OBAMA’S HEALTH CARE EXPERIMENT

Gallup Poll: 63 Percent Say Obama’s Plan Will Worsen Or Not Change Medical Care For Them Personally, 26 Percent Say Plan Will Improve It. (Frank Newport, “Benefits of Healthcare Reform a Tough Sell for Americans,” Gallup, 7/29/09)

National Public Radio Poll: 47 Percent Oppose Obama’s Plan, 42 Percent Support It. “When asked about the plan now moving through Congress, a plurality of 47 percent was opposed and 42 percent said they were in favor, based on what they had heard about the plan so far.” (Mara Liasson, “NPR Poll Finds Tough Sledding For Obama,” NPR, 7/29/09)

Similar Results From Pew Research Center: 44 Percent Oppose Obama’s Plan, 38 Percent Support It. “By a 44% to 38% margin, more Americans generally oppose than favor the health care proposals now before Congress. Opposition rises to 56% among people who say they have heard a lot about legislation to overhaul the health care system.” (“Obama’s Rating Slide Across The Board,” Pew Research Center, 7/30/09)

New York Times/CBS News Poll: 66 Percent Fear Losing Their Insurance. “The poll found 66 percent of respondents were concerned that they might eventually lose their insurance if the government did not create a new health care system, and 80 percent said they were concerned that the percentage of Americans without health care would continue to rise if Congress did not act.” (Adam Nagourney and Megan Thee-Brenan, “New Poll Finds Growing Unease On Health Plan,” The New York Times, 7/29/09)

• 77 Percent Say Costs Will Increase. “But in another finding, 77 percent said they were concerned that the cost of health care would go up if the government did create such a system.” (Adam Nagourney and Megan Thee-Brenan, “New Poll Finds Growing Unease On Health Plan,” The New York Times, 7/29/09)

Time Poll: 56 Percent Fear Losing Freedom To Choose Their Own Doctor, Plan Under Government-Run Health Care. “By significant margins, survey respondents said they believe the final health-reform legislation is likely to raise health-care costs in the long run (62%), make everything about health care more complicated (65%) and offer less freedom to choose doctors and coverage (56%).” (Michael Scherer, “TIME Health-Care Poll: Americans Back Reform But Worry About Details,” Time, 7/29/09)

Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll: 42 Percent Say Obama’s Plan Is “Bad Idea,” 36 Percent Say It’s “Good Idea.” “In mid-June, respondents were evenly divided when asked whether they thought Mr. Obama's health plan was a good or bad idea. In the new poll, conducted July 24-27, 42% called it a bad idea while 36% said it was a good idea.” (Laura Meckler, “Support Slips For Health Plan,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/30/09)

SENATE DEMS PLAN TO IGNORE COLLEAGUES IN FINANCE COMMITTEE

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) Predicts Liberals Will Be Angry. “‘There will be flash points in any bipartisan bill out of the Finance Committee that I’m sure more liberal members of our Caucus will be upset with,’ said Durbin. ‘But I’ve said to all of them: Stay with us; this is the first inning. This is a long ballgame.’” (Emily Pierce, “Durbin: Finance Bill Critical Before Recess,” Roll Call, 7/29/09)

Sen. Sherrod Brown Has No Interest In Bipartisan Deal. “Because we want three Republicans to come along on this, we betray what the American people want? … I don't think so.” (Charles Babington, “Analysis: Tough Decision Time For Obama On Health,” The Associated Press, 7/28/09)

Liberal Senators Plan To Use Amendment Process To Push For Their Priorities. “However, a significant number of Democratic Senators remain skeptical and are worried that their treasured reform priorities could be junked in order to win the support of Republicans and some centrist Democrats. … Sen. Benjamin Cardin (D-Md.), who doesn’t sit on HELP or Finance, expressed a similar sentiment. ‘We’re going to push for what we believe in. There are going to be amendment opportunities to deal with that,’ he said.” (David Drucker, “Health Battles Turn Into War,” Roll Call, 7/29/09)

• “Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) … Preparing ‘Probably Quite A Few’ Amendments For The Committee’s Markup.” (Alexander Bolton and Jeffrey Young, “Dem Healthcare Infighting Intensifies,” The Hill, 7/29/09)

DESPITE SO-CALLED “DEAL,” HOUSE DEMS STILL FIGHTING EACH OTHER OVER HEALTH CARE EXPERIMENT

Some House Dems Want Primary Challenges Against Blue Dog Colleagues. “A House fight among Democrats on overhauling the nation’s healthcare system has spread to the Senate, where centrists and liberals are clashing over the direction the legislation should take … Infighting among House Democrats has led to an impasse at the Energy and Commerce Committee that is expected to prevent House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) from meeting her deadline of completing work before the August recess. And on Tuesday it prompted Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) to hint that more liberal members of the party should consider challenging centrist Blue Dogs in next year’s primaries.” (Alexander Bolton and Jeffrey Young, “Dem Healthcare Infighting Intensifies,” The Hill, 7/29/09)

Liberal Lawmakers Threaten To Vote Against Anything But A Strong Government Takeover Of Health Insurance. “Leaders of the Progressive Caucus indicated they would rally their ranks to bring down any package that hewed too closely to the moderate Blue Dog compromise. ‘We have not only concerns but outright opposition’ to some of the provisions in that deal, said Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), a co-chairman of the Progressive Caucus… ‘It has to be much stronger to get our support,’ Woolsey said after a meeting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who tried in a meeting Wednesday to sell them on the deal.” (Steven Dennis and David Drucker, “Democratic Health Care Deals Far From Sealed,” Roll Call, 7/30/09)

House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC) Has Doubts That So-Called “Deal” With Blue Dogs Will Hold Up. “‘We have absolutely no idea,’ Clyburn, D-S.C., told me and ABC’s Jonathan Karl… As the chief vote-counter in the House, Clyburn has to balance a wide range of viewpoints inside the Democratic caucus -- including Blue Dogs who have worked to hold down the cost and minimize the impact on businesses, and liberals who are insisting on a robust ‘public option’ to compete with private insurers … ‘So this whole thing about the one group getting all of what it wants to the expense of the other group –- that’s not the way things work,’ Clyburn said … ‘So if you think any kind of deal will be exactly like you wanted it when it gets lined up with the other two committees -– that just ain’t the way the world works.’” (Rick Klein, “Clyburn ‘Absolutely No Idea’ If Concessions To Blue Dogs Will Survive; ‘That Just Ain’t The Way The World Works,’” ABC News’ “The Note” Blog, 7/30/09)

Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL) Thinks “Bulk” Of Blue Dogs Could Oppose The House Bill. “In addition, Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), a Blue Dog leader, said he thought that ‘the bulk’ of his caucus might oppose the House bill despite the latest compromise.” (Noam N. Levey and Janet Hook, “House Democrats Make A Healthcare Deal,” The Los Angeles Times, 7/30/09)

• Boyd Considers No Floor Votes Before Recess A “Win.” “Even Blue Dogs who probably won't support the final bill lauded their colleagues for putting off a House vote until the fall. ‘The win is no bill on the House floor - or the Senate …’” (Patrick O’Connor and Carrie Budoff Brown, “Henry Waxman Wins Breakthrough On Health Bill,” Politico, 7/30/09) 

Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D-SD) Says Blue Dogs As Group Won’t Formally Support Government-Run Health Care. “Likewise, Blue Dogs emerging from a morning meeting at which Ross and the others explained their position gave clear signals that they would go their own way. ‘The coalition does not have a position on the bill,’ said South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin ….” (Patrick O’Connor and Carrie Budoff Brown, “Henry Waxman Wins Breakthrough On Health Bill,” Politico, 7/30/09)

Even Non-Blue Dog Dems Worried About Cost Of Health Care. REPRESENTATIVE ERIC MASSA (D-NY): “You are right, I am not a member of the Blue Dog contest, but I am concerned about the spending …” FOX NEWS’ BILL HEMMER: “Are you concerned about the cost? We just showed the numbers and Americans are backing away from the idea because they are scared about the deficit.” REP. MASSA: “We are already spending that money. We are spending in the most inefficient, least effective manner possible. I want to make sure we knew this in the most fiscally responsible manner possible.” (FOX News’ “America’s Newsroom,” 7/30/09)