Research Briefing

Failed Promise: Exactly Wrong

9

January 2012

Posted by: Research

Obama Released This Graph So Americans Could See “Exactly” What The Stimulus Would Do – He Was Exactly Wrong

Obama: “Today, I Am Releasing A Report Of Their Findings So That The American People Can See Exactly What This Plan Will Mean For Their Families, Their Communities, And Our Economy.” (President-Elect Barack Obama, The President Elect’s Radio Address, 1/10/09)

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OBAMA’S STIMULUS FAILED TO KEEP UNEMPLOYMENT BELOW 8 PERCENT

Obama’s $825 Billion Stimulus Failed To Keep The Unemployment Rate Below The 8 Percent And Is No Where Close To The 6 Percent They Predicted It Would Be At By Now. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 1/6/12; Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,”1/9/09; Congressional Budget Office, 5/25/11)

  • Instead, Since The Stimulus Was Passed, The Unemployment Rate Has Increased From 8.2 Percent To 8.5 Percent And Has Remained Above 8 Percent For A Post-WWII Record 35 Straight Months. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 1/6/12) 
  • The Unemployment Rate Peaked At 10.1 Percent In October 2009. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 1/6/12) 

OBAMA’S STIMULUS FAILED TO CREATE THE OVER 3.5 MILLION JOBS THAT HIS ADVISORS PREDICTED IT WOULD CREATE

Obama’s Advisors Predicted That The Stimulus Would Create Over 3.5 Million Jobs And Raise Payroll Employment To Over 137.5 Million By The Fourth Quarter Of 2010.  (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,”1/9/09)

Obama’s Advisors Included Projections For How Many Jobs Would Be Created In Each Sector Of The Economy

Obama Said His Advisors Conducted “A Rigorous Analysis” With Projections Of “How Many Jobs It Will Create – And What Kind Of Jobs They Will Be.” “I asked my nominee for Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Dr. Christina Romer, and the Vice President-Elect’s Chief Economic Adviser, Dr. Jared Bernstein, to conduct a rigorous analysis of this plan and come up with projections of how many jobs it will create – and what kind of jobs they will be.” (President-Elect Barack Obama, The President Elect’s Radio Address, 1/10/09)

Obama’s Advisors Predicted The Stimulus Would Create 26,000 Jobs In The Mining Industry By The End Of 2010. (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,” 1/9/09)

Obama’s Advisors Predicted The Stimulus Would Create 678,000 Jobs In The Construction Industry By The End Of 2010. (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,” 1/9/09)

Obama’s Advisors Predicted The Stimulus Would Create 408,000 Jobs In The Manufacturing Industry By The End Of 2010. (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,” 1/9/09)

Obama’s Advisors Predicted The Stimulus Would Create 158,000 Jobs In The Wholesale Trade Industry By The End Of 2010. (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,” 1/9/09)

Obama’s Advisors Predicted The Stimulus Would Create 604,000 Jobs In The Retail Trade Industry By The End Of 2010. (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,” 1/9/09)

Obama’s Advisors Predicted The Stimulus Would Create 50,000 Jobs In The Information Industry By The End Of 2010. (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,” 1/9/09)

Obama’s Advisors Predicted The Stimulus Would Create 214,000 Jobs In The Financial Activities Industry By The End Of 2010. (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,” 1/9/09)

Obama’s Advisors Predicted The Stimulus Would Create 499,000 Jobs In The Leisure And Hospitality Industry By The End Of 2010. (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,” 1/9/09)

Obama’s Advisors Predicted The Stimulus Would Create 11,000 Jobs In The Utilities Industry By The End Of 2010.. (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,” 1/9/09)

Obama’s Advisors Predicted The Stimulus Would Create 98,000 Jobs In The Transportation And Warehousing Industry By The End Of 2010.. (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,” 1/9/09)

  • By The End Of 2010, The Transportation And Warehousing Industry Had Lost 72,000 Jobs. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 1/6/12)

Obama’s Advisors Predicted The Stimulus Would Create 244,000 Government Jobs By The End Of 2010. (Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, “The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan,” 1/9/09)

OBAMA IS ATTEMPTING TO EXPLAIN AWAY HIS FAILURES BY CLAIMING NO ONE KNEW HOW BAD THEY ECONOMY WAS BUT HIS OWN WORDS BETRAY HIM

President Obama Claims “We Understood That It Was Bad, But We Didn’t Know How Bad It Was.” “President Barack Obama said Tuesday he wishes he knew the full extent of the economic crisis when he took office, if only so he could have let Americans know just how tough the coming years would be. ‘I think we understood that it was bad, but we didn’t know how bad it was,” Obama said in an interview with KIRO in Seattle. ‘I think I could have prepared the American people for how bad this was going to be, had we had a sense of that.’” (Jennifer Epstein, “Barack Obama On Economic Crisis: ‘We Didn’t Know How Bad It Was,” Politico’s "44", 12/13/11)

  • Obama Chief Of Staff Bill Daley Said No One “Had Any Idea Of The Depth Of The Economic Crisis We Would Stumble Into.” DALEY: “No one at that time of that interview [Obama in 2009] had any idea of the depth of the economic crisis we would stumble into. We had already lost 4 million jobs before he even became president of the United States. It has been much worse than anyone thought.” (NBC’s “The Today Show,” 9/8/11)
  • White House Press Secretary Jay Carney Claimed No One Realized How Bad The Economic Situation Was In 2009. “Carney's implication seemed to be that no one realized the severity of the situation in early 2009, and that the White House acted as best it could with the information it had. ‘We were in an economic free-fall, and we know now that the hole that was dug by the recession was much deeper than we understood at the time,’ Carney told Scarborough and Brzezinski.” (Alexander Eichler, “Jay Carney, Despite Evidence, Says Economists Didn’t Know How Bad The Recession Would Get,” The Huffington Post, 12/8/11)

But Obama Clearly Understood The Crisis He Faced When He Said In 2008: “We Are Going Through The Worst Financial Crisis Since The Great Depression”

September 2008: Obama: “We Are Going Through The Worst Financial Crisis Since The Great Depression.” (Sen. Barack Obama, Remarks During First Presidential Debate, Oxford, MS, 9/26/08)

October 2008: Obama: “We Meet Here At A Time Of Great Uncertainty. Our Economy Is In Crisis.” (Sen. Barack Obama, Remarks, La Crosse, WI, 10/1/08)

November 2008: Obama: “We Are Facing An Economic Crisis Of Historic Proportions.” (President-Elect Barack Obama, Remarks Announcing Members Of The Economic Team, Chicago, IL, 11/24/08)

The Consensus Among Economists At The Time Was Clear

The Evidence Doesn’t Support The White House’s Claim That No One Knew How Bad The Economy Was In 2009. “White House Press Secretary Jay Carney made a surprising assertion on MSNBC Wednesday, saying that in early 2009, as Barack Obama was taking office, there weren't any major economists who understood just how bad the recession was. The problem is that the evidence doesn't support his claim.” (Alexander Eichler, “Jay Carney, Despite Evidence, Says Economists Didn’t Know How Bad The Recession Would Get,” The Huffington Post, 12/8/11)

  • “In Reality, Though, Well-Respected Analysts And Economists From All Corners Were Sounding Alarms About The State Of The Economy -- In Early 2009, And Even Before.” (Alexander Eichler, “Jay Carney, Despite Evidence, Says Economists Didn’t Know How Bad The Recession Would Get,” The Huffington Post, 12/8/11)

In January 2009, 78 Percent Of Economists Expected GDP To Continue Its Decline. “And a January 2009 survey of more than 100 economists, conducted by the National Association for Business Economics, found that that business conditions overall were the worst in the survey's 27-year history. At the time, 78 percent of the economists said they expected GDP to keep falling.” (Alexander Eichler, “Jay Carney, Despite Evidence, Says Economists Didn’t Know How Bad The Recession Would Get,” The Huffington Post, 12/8/11)

CBO Director Doug Elmendorf Predicted Unemployment Above 9 Percent. “For example, Douglas Elmendorf, director of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, testified before the House Budget Committee on January 27, 2009, that without immediate action, the economy would sag below its potential by nearly 7 percent for the next two years, and that unemployment would exceed 9 percent by early 2010 -- something that actually happened four months later, in May 2009.” (Alexander Eichler, “Jay Carney, Despite Evidence, Says Economists Didn’t Know How Bad The Recession Would Get,” The Huffington Post, 12/8/11)

  • “Describing This Projected Gap Between Potential And Actual Economic Output, Elmendorf Called It The Largest Shortfall ‘In Terms Of Both Length And Depth ... Since The Depression Of The 1930s.’” (Alexander Eichler, “Jay Carney, Despite Evidence, Says Economists Didn’t Know How Bad The Recession Would Get,” The Huffington Post, 12/8/11)

Martin Feldstein: “This Recession Is Likely To Last Longer And Be More Damaging” Than Anytime Since The Great Depression.  “Martin Feldstein, Harvard professor and former economic adviser to Ronald Reagan, wrote in January 2009 that ‘this recession is likely to last longer and be more damaging than any since the depression of the 1930's.’” (Alexander Eichler, “Jay Carney, Despite Evidence, Says Economists Didn’t Know How Bad The Recession Would Get,” The Huffington Post, 12/8/11)

James Galbraith Compared America’s Condition To “A True Financial Crisis Of The Type In The 1930s.” “And James Galbraith, a left-leaning economist and former executive director of the Joint Economic Committee said, ‘there are many good reasons to think’ that America is in ‘a true financial crisis of the type in the 1930s.’” (Alexander Eichler, “Jay Carney, Despite Evidence, Says Economists Didn’t Know How Bad The Recession Would Get,” The Huffington Post, 12/8/11)

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