Research Briefing

Obama Returns To The Badger State This Labor Day But Many Wisconsinites Are Still Out Of Work And Uncertain About The Economy

“President Barack Obama Will Be In Milwaukee On Labor Day - His Third Visit To The Area In A Little Over Two Months…” (Craig Gilbert, “Obama To Return For Labor Day Event,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 8/30/10)

OBAMA’S BACK BUT THE JOBS AREN’T, AND NEITHER IS ANY CERTAINTY ABOUT THE ECONOMY

Wisconsin Has Lost 75,500 Jobs Since The Stimulus. (U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov, Accessed 8/20/10)

• And The State’s Unemployment Rate Is 7.8%. (U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov, Accessed 8/20/10)

Wisconsin Business Owners Have Been “Operating For The Last Year And A Half In Conditions Of Perfect Uncertainty.” “Economists and business owners say they've never seen anything like it: The Bush tax cuts are expiring, health care reform is confusing, deficits are exploding, cap-and-trade is looming - and political leaders are too busy fighting among themselves to offer any reliable vision of the future. Little wonder, then, that businesses are frozen, afraid to hire or make any other long-term plans. ‘We've been operating for the last year and a half in conditions of perfect uncertainty,’ said David J. Ward, president of Madison-based consulting firm NorthStar Economics Inc., adding that he has never before seen such economic doubt in his 45 years as an economist.” (Joe Taschler, “As Politicians Fight, Businesses Wait For A 'Go' Sign,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal, 8/29/10)

• “‘They're Not Going To Hire A Lot Of New People Until They Have A Better Sense Of The Direction The Economy Is Going,’ Ward Said. That's Certainly The Sentiment At Many Companies Around Southeast Wisconsin.” (Joe Taschler, “As Politicians Fight, Businesses Wait For A 'Go' Sign,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal, 8/29/10)

Wisconsin Machine Tool Corp. Owner Patrick Cherone: “[W]e’re Looking Down The Barrel of A Gun, Saying To Ourselves, ‘I Don’t Know If It’s Loaded Or Not.’” “Patrick Cherone, owner of Wisconsin Machine Tool Corp. in Brookfield, says he won't try to grow his business as long as the uncertainty persists. His focus, for now, is survival. ‘Myself and my customers, we're looking down the barrel of a gun, saying to ourselves, ‘I don't know if it's loaded or not.’ So, I'm not going to really do anything. It's the safest move I can make,’ Cherone said.” (Joe Taschler, “As Politicians Fight, Businesses Wait For A 'Go' Sign,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal, 8/29/10)

• “‘It's Just Stagnant. It Is Not Moving,’ He Said. ‘(Politicians) Can Get On TV All They Want And Tell Me It's Looking Brighter. Well, I Might Not Be Here In A Month.’” (Joe Taschler, “As Politicians Fight, Businesses Wait For A 'Go' Sign,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal, 8/29/10)

AND BECAUSE OF THE POOR JOB MARKET, MANY FALLING BEHIND ON MORTGAGE PAYMENTS

Wisconsin’s Mortgage Delinquency Rate Rose To 6.65% In Second Quarter. “More Wisconsin homeowners had trouble staying current on their mortgage payments in the second quarter than earlier this year, a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows. The delinquency rate on Wisconsin homes was 6.65% in the period that ended June 30, compared with 6.46% in the first quarter, the mortgage bankers said in the report released Thursday.” (Paul Gores, “More State Homeowners Behind In Payments,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, 8/27/10)

• Delinquencies Are Another Part Of The Housing Story, Which Is Directly Connected To The Rise In Unemployment. “‘Ultimately the housing story, whether it is delinquencies, home sales or housing starts, is an employment story,’ Brinkmann said in a statement. ‘Only when we see a consistent increase in employment will we see an increase in sales and starts and a sustained improvement in the delinquency numbers. Until we see the increase in the number of households that comes with an increase in the number of paychecks, all measures of the health of the housing industry will continue to be weak.’” (Paul Gores, “More State Homeowners Behind In Payments,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, 8/27/10)
• And The Uptick In Overdue Loans Is Tied To The Job Market. “‘Those are a leading indicator because eventually if those don't get cleared up they become the mortgage delinquencies of 30-to-60 days, and then they migrate into the 60-to-90 and eventually foreclosure,’ said Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds and an associate professor of business administration at Wisconsin Lutheran College. ‘That uptick is a little disturbing, which I think is directly tied to the job market.’ (Paul Gores, “More State Homeowners Behind In Payments,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, 8/27/10)

NOW EVEN RUSS FEINGOLD IS DISTANCING HIMSELF FROM’S OBAMA FAILED JOBS AGENDA

The Hill Now Rates The Wisconsin Senate Race As A “Toss-Up.” “In all, eight Democratic-held Senate seats are now considered toss-ups, while the ranks of Democratic-held House seats in the toss-up category swells to 29. … Sen. Russ Feingold (Wis.) — from "LIKELY DEMOCRATIC" to ‘TOSS-UP.’ Even though Republicans in the state have yet to emerge from their primary fight, this race has been in a dead heat since June.” (Shane D'Aprile And Sean J. Miller, “Race Ratings: Ranks Of Democratic Toss-Up Seats Grow,” The Hill’s Ballot Box Blog, 8/30/10)

• And Republican Challenger Ron Johnson Raised More Money In July And August, Pulling In “Nearly $300,000 More” Than Feingold. “Republican challenger Ron Johnson brought in more money in July and August than Sen. Russ Feingold (D) in Wisconsin, according to pre-primary figures released by the two campaigns Thursday. Johnson announced Thursday that he collected $1.2 million from donors from July 1 to Aug. 25, nearly $300,000 more than Feingold’s $920,000 haul. Johnson loaned his campaign an additional $2.9 million out of his own pocket, bringing his total raised in the pre-primary period to $4.1 million.” (Kyle Trygstad, “Johnson Outraises Feingold In Wisconsin Pre-Primary Period,” Roll Call, 9/2/10)

“Obama Visit Won't Include Feingold.” (Don Walker, “Obama Visit Won't Include Feingold,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s “All Politics” Blog, 9/2/10)

• Feingold “Will Not Be In Town When Obama Is Expected To Arrive.” “When President Barack Obama visits Milwaukee on Labor Day to talk to working families and members of dozens of labor unions, one prominent politician won't be there. A Labor Day schedule put out by the staff of U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) indicates that, while Feingold will be in Milwaukee earlier in the day for a Milwaukee Laborfest Pre-Parade on Monday morning, he will not be in town when Obama is expected to arrive.” (Don Walker, “Obama Visit Won't Include Feingold,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s “All Politics” Blog, 9/2/10)

Even Though Sen. Feingold Said He Would Stand With Obama “Anywhere, Anytime, No Hesitation.” “‘I will stand with the president of the United States anywhere, anytime, no hesitation. I'm proud of what this president has tried to do,’ Feingold told the Journal Sentinel in an interview last month prior to Obama's visit.” (Don Walker, “Obama Visit Won't Include Feingold,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s “All Politics” Blog, 9/2/10)