Research Briefing

Americans Strongly Oppose The Substance Of Obama’s Government-Run Health Care Experiment

OBAMA CLAIMS: “The Public Has Soured On The Process That They Saw Over The Past Year.  I Think That Actually Contaminates How They View The Substance Of The Bills.”  (Carrie Budoff Brown, Obama: No ‘Political Theater,’” Politico’s “Live Pulse” Blog, 2/9/10)

BUT AMERICANS KNOW COSTS WILL GO UP, AND THEY DON’T LIKE IT

Robert Wood Johnson Foundation: “30.5 Percent Said Their Personal Finances Would Be Worse Under A Health Care Overhaul, Compared To 24.5 Percent Last Month.” (Erica Werner, “Poll Shows Growing Fears On Health Care Overhaul,” The Associated Press, 1/25/10)

CBO Says Premiums Would Be Higher Under Reform Than Without Under The Senate Dems’ Plan For Those Who Don’t Get Employer-Based Health Care. “CBO and JCT estimate that the average premium per person covered (including dependents) for new nongroup policies would be about 10 percent to 13 percent higher in 2016 than the average premium for nongroup coverage in that same year under current law.” (Douglas W. Elmendorf, Letter To Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), 11/30/09)

AND AMERICANS KNOW THEY’LL LOSE WHAT THEY HAVE

“33 Percent Of Respondents Said They Believed Their Access To Care Would Be Worse If A Health Care Overhaul Occurred, A Jump From 25 Percent In The [Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] Poll Released Last Month.” (Erica Werner, “Poll Shows Growing Fears On Health Care Overhaul,” The Associated Press, 1/25/10)

• Businesses To Drop Benefits Or Raise Out-Of-Pocket Costs For Their Plans. "Two-thirds of employers would raise deductibles, change insurers or scale back coverage to avoid the so-called Cadillac tax on high-cost benefits proposed in the Senate Democrats' health care bill, according to a survey released today by consulting firm Mercer." (Julie Appleby, "New Survey: 'Cadillac Tax' Would Force Employers To Trim Health Insurance Costs," Kaiser Health News, 12/3/09)

“However, 52% Of Voters Fear That They Could Be Forced To Change Insurance If The Health Care Legislation Passes.” (“Health Care Reform,” Rasmussen Reports, 1/22/10)

• Mayo Clinic Says Government-Run Health Care Will Force Doctors To Drop Patients. “[L]awmakers are on track to approve across-the-board federal payment reductions of $155 billion over 10 years for hospitals ... Mayo and similar health systems object to the sweeping cuts. ‘Across-the-board cuts will be harmful to everyone and we think it is particularly bad to penalize the high-value organizations,’ said Jeff Korsmo, executive director of the Mayo Clinic Health Policy Center. ‘We will have to violate our values in order to stay in business and reduce our access to government patients.’” (Phil Galewitz, “’Model’ Health Systems Press Case For Medicare Fix In Reform,” Kaiser Health News, 7/20/09)

• Obama’s Promise That You Can Keep Your Doctor And Your Plan Is “Not Literally True Or Enforceable.” “Mr. Obama has said repeatedly, as he told the American Medical Association in June: ‘If you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor, period. If you like your health care plan, you’ll be able to keep your health care plan, period. No one will take it away, no matter what.’ These assurances reflect an aspiration, but may not be literally true or enforceable.” (Robert Pear & David Herszenhorn, “A Primer On The Details Of Health Care Reform,” The New York Times, 8/10/09)

AND AMERICAN SENIORS KNOW THEIR MEDICARE BENEFITS WILL BE CUT

“[J]ust 35% Of Seniors Favor The Plan While 62% Oppose It.” (“Health Care Reform,” Rasmussen Reports, 1/22/10)

• Dems Admit Cuts Could Force Doctors To Decline Seniors On Medicare. “Rep. Eric Massa [D-NY] said tightening provider payments could lead to access problems for patients. ‘We will force doctors to decline Medicare patients,’ he said after a raucous town-hall meeting in Upstate New York. ‘If we believe these savings are there, let’s test the concept. But we can’t hinge the entire funding of this bill on these not-yet-seen savings.’” (Ceci Connolly, “Seniors Remain Wary Of Health-Care Reform,” The Washington Post, 8/9/09)

• CBO Director Says Obama’s Cuts To Medicare Advantage Means Many Seniors Seeing Benefits Cut In Half. SEN. MIKE CRAPO (R-ID): “So approximately half of the additional benefit would be lost to those current Medicare Advantage policy holders.” ELMENDORF: “Those who would be enrolled otherwise under current law, yes…” (Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) And CBO Director Douglas W. Elmendorf, Senate Finance Committee Markup Hearing, 9/22/09)

• 20 States Would See More Than 50,000 Seniors Being Dropped From Medicare Advantage. “If Congress sets MA rates at the level of county FFS spending, 11 states are predicted to lose more than 100,000 MA enrollees each, including: California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Massachusetts, Wisconsin and Illinois. An additional 13 states would lose between 50,000 and 100,000 MA enrollees, including: Missouri, North Carolina, New Jersey, Alabama, Georgia, Minnesota, Florida, New York, Louisiana, Kentucky, Virginia, Indiana and Tennessee.” (Adam Atherly, Ph.D. and Kenneth E. Thorpe, Ph.D., Emory School Of Public Health, “The Impact Of Reductions In Medicare Advantage Funding On Beneficiaries,” 4/07)

AND AMERICANS KNOW THAT IT’LL BREAK THE BUDGET

“Adding To Concerns About Paying For The Plan Is The Fact That 78% Of Voters Expect It To Cost More Than Projected.” (“Health Care Reform,” Rasmussen Reports, 1/22/10)

• David Broder, Dean Of The Washington Press Corps, Said Reid And Pelosi’s Bills “Are Budget-Busters.” “While the CBO said that both the House-passed bill and the one Reid has drafted meet Obama’s test by being budget-neutral, every expert I have talked to says that the public has it right. These bills, as they stand, are budget-busters.” (David S. Broder, Op-Ed, “A Budget-Buster In The Making,” The Washington Post, 11/22/09)

• Washington Post Editorial Board Says Reform Bills Pretend To Be Budget Neutral Because Of “A Fiscal Sleight Of Hand.” “First off, $247 billion -- the 10-year cost of the fix -- is one whopper of a ‘discrepancy.’ … President Obama has vowed that health reform will not add a single dime to the deficit -- but he is seemingly unfazed about adding more than a quarter-trillion dollars to the deficit by changing the Medicare reimbursement formula without finding a way to pay for it. … This latest maneuver only heightens the fiscal irresponsibility of what already was a fiscal sleight of hand.” (Editorial, “2.47 Trillion Dimes,” The Washington Post, 10/19/09)

• The “Doc Fix” Provision That Would Add $250 Billion To The Deficit Is Not Included In The Democrats’ List Price For Their Health Care Experiment. (Page 17, Douglas W. Elmendorf, Letter To Senator Harry Reid, 11/18/09)