Research Briefing

What Resulted After Obama Spent 2009 Pushing His Job-Killing, Binge Spending, Government Takeover Agenda

‘09 LESSON FOR DEMS RUNNING IN ‘10: “YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN.” “But if there is one thing that Democratic candidates in next year’s midterm congressional elections might want to take from the party’s bad night on Tuesday, it is this: You are on your own.” (Karen Tumulty, “Republican Wins Show Dems They Are on Their Own,” Time, 11/4/09)

FIRST, OBAMA THOUGHT HE COULD SAVE CREIGH DEEDS AND JON CORZINE …

Deeds Put “All His Eggs In Obama’s Basket.” “Creigh Deeds … puts all his eggs in Obama’s basket … We’ve posted the Virginia gubernatorial candidate’s final mail and door-knocking material, and it looks like Obama’s reelect … Here’s the Democratic Party of Virginia’s final message: -- ‘Stand With President Obama’ … ‘President Obama is fighting for change, but he needs us to elect leaders like Creigh Deeds to help him’ … ‘Stand with President Obama to elect Creigh Deeds governor …’” (Mike Allen, Politico’s “Playbook,” 11/02/09)

• Obama Campaigned For Creigh Deeds To Salvage Win In Virginia, “Because A Loss Could Be Blamed On The Administration.” “But the White House is doing what it can to help him win, because a loss could be blamed on the administration. The Oval Office has appealed to the nation’s first elected black governor, Virginia’s L. Douglas Wilder, to back Deeds.” (“Obama Heads To Va. For Rally, Fundraiser,” The Associated Press, 8/6/09)

Obama “Put His Prestige On The Line” For Corzine. “The president has put his prestige on the line, trying to regenerate the old magic from 2008. Speaking at Fairleigh Dickinson University in Hackensack, N.J., last week, Obama said, ‘I know folks are hurting.’ But he argued that Corzine is supporting his policies and that he works hard, is honest, and puts the success of working families over ‘special interests.’” (Kenneth T. Walsh, “Obama Puts Himself On The Line In Virginia, New Jersey,” US News, 10/30/09)

• “Obama Says NJ Governor Is Key To His Own Agenda” (Philip Elliott, The Associated Press, 11/2/09)

… YET THEY BOTH LOST AS VOTERS SENT “REBUKE OF MR. OBAMA”

Virginia Was “Laboratory” For Obama Campaign Strategy, “Test Of This President And His Policies.” “Governor’s races tend to be determined by the quality of the candidates and local issues rather than national politics; overcrowded highways are the biggest topic this year in Virginia. Nevertheless, Virginia has been a laboratory for many of the ways Mr. Obama tried to change the ideological appeal and tactics of his party, and it is looming as an early if imprecise test of this president and his policies.” (Adam Nagourney, “2 State Races May Put Lens On President,” The New York Times, 10/11/09)

• DNC Chairman Tim Kaine Says Virginia “The Perfect Bellwether State.” “‘Chuck Todd [chief political analyst for NBC News] has said Virginia is the perfect bellwether state, and I really believe that,’ Kaine said.”  (Ray Reed, “Kaine Sees Tougher Fight, More Negative Tone In Governor’s Race,” The News & Advance, 9/30/09)

Virginia Outcome Could Be Sign “The President’s Star Is Fading.” “Democrats have claimed the past two governorships, both Senate seats and the first presidential win since 1964, but Republicans are close to turning the tide. For Obama critics, it is a chance to make the case — in one of only two states holding governor races this year — that the president’s star is fading.” (Faye Fiore, “GOP Seeing Va. Governor’s Race As Chance To Nick Obama,” The Los Angeles Times, 11/1/09)

• Creigh Deeds Said Obama And Washington Democrats “Made It Very Tough” For Him In Race. Creigh Deeds: "Frankly, a lot of what’s going on in Washington has made it very tough ... We had a very tough August because people were just uncomfortable with the spending; they were uncomfortable with a lot of what was going on, a lot of the noise that was coming out of Washington, D.C." (Jonathan Martin, "Deeds Points Finger At Washington," Politico, 10/6/09)

Gov. Corzine Loss “Embarrassment” For White House. “A Democratic loss there would be an embarrassment for this White House and provide a jolt of energy to a Republican Party at a crucial time as it recruits candidates and raises money for the elections next year. Republicans won the governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia in 1993 and went on to capture Congress in 1994.” (Adam Nagourney, “2 State Races May Put Lens On President,” The New York Times, 10/11/09)

• Because Obama’s Aides Said Corzine Loss Would Be Seen “As A Rebuke Of Mr. Obama.” “The state is one of only two nationwide holding governor’s contests this year. And Mr. Obama’s aides acknowledge that a loss in this deep-blue state would be interpreted as a rebuke of Mr. Obama, affecting his ability to pass major legislation and the public’s perceptions of his party’s power.” (David M. Halbfinger & David Kocieniewski, “Meanwhile, Next Door, It’s Team Obama For Corzine Sign In To Recommend,” The New York Times, 9/24/09)

Because Obama’s Aides Said Corzine Loss Would Be Seen “As A Rebuke Of Mr. Obama.” “The state is one of only two nationwide holding governor’s contests this year. And Mr. Obama’s aides acknowledge that a loss in this deep-blue state would be interpreted as a rebuke of Mr. Obama, affecting his ability to pass major legislation and the public’s perceptions of his party’s power.” (David M. Halbfinger & David Kocieniewski, “Meanwhile, Next Door, It’s Team Obama For Corzine Sign In To Recommend,” The New York Times, 9/24/09)

THEN, MANY DEMS SAW WRITING ON THE WALL, RAN FOR THE EXITS …

Just Last Week, Four Top Democrats Retired In A 24-Hour Period. “The grim outlook for Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections just got a little worse. Four top Democrats — including veteran Sens. Chris Dodd and Byron Dorgan — all prepared to pull the plug on their campaigns in a 24-hour period that began Tuesday, and in the process, offered an unnerving glimpse at the perilous election year ahead.”  (Manu Raju & Josh Kraushaar, “Top Democrats Head For The Exits,” Politico, 1/6/10)

• Sens. Byron Dorgan (D-SD) And Chris Dodd (D-CT), Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO), And Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D-MI) Announced They Were No Longer Running For Office. “Dorgan’s announcement was accompanied Tuesday by Michigan Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry’s decision to end his floundering bid for governor, and by the revelation that both Dodd and Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter would announce Wednesday that they would not seek reelection.” (Manu Raju & Josh Kraushaar, “Top Democrats Head For The Exits,” Politico, 1/6/10)

Four House Democrats’ Retirements In December Showed Public “Appear To Have Soured On” Democratic Agenda. “The national political environment has shifted significantly since President Obama was elected 13 months ago. Republican are now unified in opposition to the administration’s policies and more energized than at any time since Bush’s reelection in 2004. At the same time, many of the independent voters who backed the Democrats in their victories of 2006 and 2008 appear to have soured on the party, if this year’s gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia are any guide.” (Chris Cillizza & Dan Balz, “Democrats lose fourth congressman to retirement,” The Washington Post, 12/15/09)

… AND OBAMA’S AGENDA SENT ONE HOUSE DEM RUNNING FOR THE GOP

Rep. Parker Griffith Switched Parties Because He Said He Wants To “Speak Out Clearly” Against Agenda “Focused On Massive New Spending, Tax Increases, Bailouts And A Health Care Bill That Is Bad For Our Health Care System.” “Unfortunately there are those in the Democratic leadership that continue to push an agenda focused on massive new spending, tax increases, bailouts and a health care bill that is bad for our health care system. I have always considered myself to be an independent voice and I have tried to be that voice in Congress - but after watching this agenda firsthand I now believe that the differences in the two parties could not be more clear and that for me to be true to my core beliefs and values I must align myself with the Republican party and speak out clearly on these issues.” (Rep. Parker Griffith, Remarks On Switching Parties, Huntsville, AL, 12/22/09)

Rep. Griffith: “Policies Pushed By The Current Democratic Leadership Are Not Good For North Alabama Or America.” "However, as the 111th Congress has progressed I have become increasingly concerned that the bills and policies pushed by the current Democratic Leadership are not good for North Alabama or America - and more importantly they do not represent my values and convictions. While I voted against health care, Cap and Trade and two huge spending stimulus bills I now believe that I have to go further and stand with a party that is more in tune with my beliefs and convictions." (Rep. Parker Griffith, Remarks On Switching Parties, Huntsville, AL, 12/22/09)

OBAMA AND HIS AGENDA HAVE TURNED OFF INDEPENDENT VOTERS IN A BIG WAY …

Over Past Six Months, Independent Voters’ Support Of Obama Has Dropped Dramatically. “Before the health care debate stormed the national stage, President Obama’s job approval rating among Independents was a respectable 56 percent, according to the Pew Research Center, having stabilized between March and June.  Today only 39 percent approve of President Obama’s job performance while 49 percent disapprove.” (Luke Frans, “How Low Will Independents Go?” Resurgent Republic, 1/14/10)

46 Percent Of Independents Disapprove Of Obama’s Handling Of The Economy, While 38 Percent Approve. (“CBS News Poll: The President, Health Care And Terrorism,” CBS News, 1/11/10)

53 Percent Of Independents Disapprove Of Obama’s Handling Of Health Care, While 35 Percent Approve. (“CBS News Poll: The President, Health Care And Terrorism,” CBS News, 1/11/10)

55 Percent Of Independents Against Obama’s Plan To Close Gitmo Detention Facility, While 30 Percent Support Plan. (“CBS News Poll: The President, Health Care And Terrorism,” CBS News, 1/11/10)

Independents Disapprove Of Obama’s Handing Of Federal Deficit By 2 To 1 Margin. “Independents give President Obama his lowest approval rating on the federal deficit, disapproving 66 to 23.  President Obama’s fiscal policies are flat out toxic to Independents, and it appears that the White House and Congressional Democrats might be one year too late in focusing on the deficit.” (Luke Frans, “How Low Will Independents Go?” Resurgent Republic, 1/14/10)

… DRAGGING DEMOCRATS DOWN WITH HIM AS VOTERS LEAVE HIS PARTY, SUPPORTING GOP

GALLUP: Voters Leaving Democratic Party For GOP As Democrats Party Identification Lead Over GOP Only 5 Points (48-43), Compared To One Year Ago When Democrats Led GOP By 15 Percent (53-38). (“Party Affiliation,” Gallup, 1/8-10/10; “Party Affiliation,” Gallup, 1/30-2/1/09)

• RASMUSSEN: “Number Of Americans Identifying Themselves As Democrats Fell To The Lowest Level Recorded In More Than Seven Years Of Monthly Tracking.” (“Partisan Trends,” Rasmussen Reports, 1/3/10)

As Obama Goes, So Go Democrats, Who Now Trail Republicans By 9 Percent In Generic Ballot Polling; A 16 Percent Swing Since Obama Took Office. (3,500 LVs, MoE +/- 2, 1/4-1/10/10; “Generic Congressional Ballot,” Rasmussen Reports, 1/12/10)

SHOULD DEMS EXPECT ANY HELP FROM OBAMA, INC.? NO!

Despite Controlling White House And Obama’s Fundraising Network, DNC “Only Running Neck And Neck” With RNC In Fundraising. “But, in a criticism that also dogged Howard Dean, some Democrats have questioned Kaine’s fundraising. Although, on average, the DNC is outpacing what it raised during the last off-year election, the committee is still only running neck and neck with the RNC, in spite of having access to Obama’s fundraising list.” (Holly Bailey, “Missing In Action,” Newsweek, 10/21/09)

Through First Three Quarters Of 2009, RNC Raised More Money And Has More Cash On Hand Than DNC. “According to the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks party fundraising, the DNC has raised $62 million through Sept. 30, compared to the RNC’s $69 million. But while the RNC has $19 million in cash and zero debt, the DNC reports $15 million in the bank and more than $5 million in debt.” (Holly Bailey, “Missing In Action,” Newsweek, 10/21/09)

• “‘I am not going to tell you it’s OK,’ another DNC member tells NEWSWEEK. ‘Everybody is concerned about it.’” ” (Holly Bailey, “Missing In Action,” Newsweek, 10/21/09)

Recent Study Finds Organizing For America “Not Targeting Congress Effectively” And Not Effecting Outcome Of Legislative Debates. “Congressional staff in both parties say OFA has mobilized constituent lobbying, but do not say OFA was a major or powerful force on Capitol Hill in its first year. Congressional aides do not think OFA is changing Members’ votes.  ... While noting that OFA faces a large challenge in converting a campaign network into lobbying activities, some former Obama campaign staffers say OFA’s programs are  not targeting Congress effectively, or providing sufficiently diverse engagement opportunities for OFA members.” (Ari Melber, “Year One Of Organizing For America,” techPresident, 1/10)