Research Briefing

Six Months After The Passage Of ObamaCare, The Bill Has Already Broken Several Promises Causing Dems To Run For Their Political Lives

“On Wednesday, President Obama Will Deliver A Speech Defending The Health-Care Bill And Touting Its Early Achievements …” (Ezra Klein, “The White House Vs. The Insurers,” The Washington Post’s “Ezra Klein” Blog, 9/20/10)

IT WILL BE AN UNHAPPY ANNIVERSARY FOR DEMS AND OBAMACARE

Democrats Structure The Law So That New Requirements Would Go Into Effect Right Before The Election Helping Dems, But ObamaCare Continues To Be Unpopular.  “Democrats structured the provisions so they would kick in right before the elections, thinking incumbents would have a tangible achievement to promote on the campaign trail.  But public support for the law continues to lag, with Americans split roughly in half over whether they support it, and the debate over jobs and taxes is squeezing the health law out of Democrats' election narrative.” (Janet Adamy and Laura Meckler, “Obama To Tout Health-Care Law In Election Push,” The Wall Street Journal, 9/19/10)

White House Is Picking A Fight With Insurers Because They Can’t Win In A Fight Against Republicans. “But this is also a sign of its weakness. The administration is picking a fight with insurers because it's not been able to win the fight against Republicans. The health-care bill is unpopular. There's some evidence that it's hurting conservative Democrats in tight races. The GOP is increasingly coalescing around a strategy to choke off its funding if they take over the Congress.” (Ezra Klein, “The White House Vs. The Insurers,” The Washington Post’s “Ezra Klein” Blog, 9/20/10)

• The Only Way The White House Can Possibly Win On ObamaCare Is To Pick The Right Villain, Which Is Why They Are Going After Insurers.  “But that's because they're not able to run on the bill alone. The White House's greatest achievement is not, at this point, a political winner, and that's contributing to a very tough campaign season for the Democrats. A speech isn't going to fix it. They're hoping that the right villain will.” (Ezra Klein, “The White House Vs. The Insurers,” The Washington Post’s “Ezra Klein” Blog, 9/20/10)

IN SIX MONTHS, OBAMACARE HAS BROKEN SEVERAL PROMISES

YOU CAN’T KEEP YOUR PLAN

OBAMA CLAIMED: “If You Like Your Health Care Plan, You Will Be Able To Keep Your Health Care Plan. Period.” “For patients, he made a sweeping pledge that ‘no matter how we reform health care, we will keep this promise: If you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor. Period. If you like your health care plan, you will be able to keep your health care plan. Period. No one will take it away. No matter what.’” (Mary Lu Carnevale, “Obama: ‘If You Like Your Doctor, You Can Keep Your Doctor’,” The Wall Street Journal’s Washington Wire Blog, 6/15/09)

As Much as 69 Percent of Employees and 80 Percent of  Small Businesses Could Be Forced To Change Health Care Plans Under ObamaCare’s New Regulations. “The administration estimated that by 2013, health plans covering as few as 39 percent and as many as 69 percent of employees could lose protected status. For small employers, the total could be as high as 80 percent; for large ones, it could reach 64 percent.” (David S. Hilzenrath and N.C. Aizenman, “New health-care rules could add costs, and benefits, to some insurance plans,” The Washington Post, 6/15/10)

Time Magazine: “It's Already Apparent, However, That Protecting The Current System Of Private Job-Based Insurance Was Not A Mission Of The Patient Protection And Affordable Care Act, Promises About Keeping Your Plan Notwithstanding.” (Kate Pickert, “How Health Reform Will Impact Existing Plans,” Time, 6/24/10)

OBAMACARE WON’T CONTROL COSTS

OBAMA CLAIMED: “The Plan I'm Announcing Tonight … Will Slow The Growth Of Health Care Costs For Our Families, Our Businesses, And Our Government.” (President Obama, Remarks To Joint Session Of Congress, Washington, D.C., 9/9/09)

CMS Says Health Care Spending Will Increase More Than Before ObamaCare Was Passed. “In February, the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services projected that overall national health spending would increase an average of 6.1% a year over the next decade. The center's economists recalculated the numbers in light of the health bill and now project that the increase will average 6.3% a year, according to a report in the journal Health Affairs. Total U.S. health spending will reach $4.6 trillion by 2019, accounting for nearly one of every five U.S. dollars spent, the report says.” (Janet Adamy, “Health Outlays Still Seen Rising,” The Wall Street Journal, 9/9/10)

“U.S. Health Spending Is Projected To Rise 9.2% In 2014, Up From The 6.6% Projected Before The Law Took Effect.” (Janet Adamy, “Health Outlays Still Seen Rising,” The Wall Street Journal, 9/9/10)

Nearly Half Of Smaller Employers Expect “Significant Increases In Health Care Costs In The Short Term.” “The study found that while the majority of employers expect health care reform to lead to cost increases, both in the short and long term, smaller employers expressed greater fear about near-term cost increases. Nearly half (49%) of smaller employers (500 employees or less) anticipate significant increases in health care costs in the short term, while just 25 percent of larger employers (500 employees or more) indicated the same concern.” (Fidelity Investments Survey Finds Majority Of Employers Rethinking Helath Care Strategy Post Health Care Reform,” Insurancenewsnet.com, 7/29/10)

IT WON’T STOP PREMIUMS FROM INCREASING

OBAMA CLAIMED:  “We Agree On Reforms That Will Finally Reduce The Costs Of Health Care. Families Will Save On Their Premiums...” (President Barack Obama, Remarks By The President After Meeting With Senate Democrats, Washington, D.C., 12/15/09)

Insurance Companies Raising Rates Because Of New Requirements In ObamaCare, “Muddying The Democrats’ Contention That The Law Will Rein In Sharply Rising Premiums.” “In recent weeks, insurance companies have started mailing consumers letters informing them of double-digit rate increases starting this month, partially attributing them to the mandates that begin Thursday. That is sowing confusion among consumers, and muddying the Democrats' contention that the law will rein in sharply rising premiums.”  (Janet Adamy and Laura Meckler, “Obama To Tout Health-Care Law In Election Push,” The Wall Street Journal, 9/19/10)

Health Insurers Will Need To Increase Premiums Between 1% And 9% As A Result Of ObamaCare. “Health insurers say they plan to raise premiums for some Americans as a direct result of the health overhaul in coming weeks, complicating Democrats' efforts to trumpet their signature achievement before the midterm elections. Aetna Inc., some BlueCross BlueShield plans and other smaller carriers have asked for premium increases of between 1% and 9% to pay for extra benefits required under the law, according to filings with state regulators.”  (Janet Adamy, "Health Insurers Plan Hikes," The Wall Street Journal, 9/8/10)

OBAMACARE HAS PROVEN HARMFUL TO SMALL BUSINESSES

CLAIM: OBAMA: “So This Health Care Tax Credit Is Pro-Jobs, It's Pro-Business, And It Starts This Year.” (President Barack Obama, Remarks On Health Insurance Reform In Portland, Maine, 4/1/10)

ObamaCare's Small Business Tax Credit's Much-Touted “Broad Eligibility” Falls Short As It "Drops Off Sharply Once A Company Gets Above 10 Workers And $25,000 Average Annual Wages.” “When the administration unveiled the small business tax credit earlier this week, officials touted its 'broad eligibility' for companies with fewer than 25 workers and average annual wages under $50,000 that provide health coverage. ... Lost in the fine print: The credit drops off sharply once a company gets above 10 workers and $25,000 average annual wages.” (Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar, "FACT CHECK: Tax Cut Math Doesn't Add Up For Some," The Associated Press, 5/20/10)

New Burdensome Tax Reporting Requirements In ObamaCare Affects Ten Times More Small Businesses Than The Tax Credit. “BIG NUMBER - 40 million. That's the number of small businesses that will be subject to the new health reform requirement to file 1099 forms to any vendor where they spend more than $600 in a given year. To put that in perspective, the IRS expects new tax filing requirement to effect 10 times more small businesses than the small business tax credit (earlier IRS estimates placed that number around 4 million).” (Jennifer Haberkorn and Sarah Kliff, "Politico Pulse," Politico, 7/8/10)

NO SURPRISE THAT DEMS SEE IT AS BENEFICIAL TO RUN AGAINST OBAMACARE

A USA Today / Gallup Poll Found That 56% Disapprove Of The Health Care Overhaul And Only 39% Approve. (Lydia Saad, “Among Recent Bills, Financial Reform a Lone Plus for Congress,” Gallup, 9/13/10)

At Least Five Dems Are Running Ads Touting Their No Vote On ObamaCare. “A handful of House Democrats are making health care reform an election year issue — by running against it. At least five of the 34 House Democrats who voted against their party’s health care reform bill are highlighting their ‘no’ votes in ads back home. By contrast, party officials in Washington can’t identify a single House member who’s running an ad boasting of a “yes” vote — despite the fact that 219 House Democrats voted in favor of final passage in March.” (Jennifer Haberkorn, “Democrats Run Away From Health Care,” Politico, 9/7/10)

No House Or Senate Dem Is Running Ads In Support Of ObamaCare. “Democrats have taken that advice to heart; it appears that no Democratic incumbent — in the House or in the Senate — has run a pro-reform TV ad since April, when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) ran one.” (Jennifer Haberkorn, “Democrats Run Away From Health Care,” Politico, 9/7/10)

• “One Democratic Strategist Said It Would Be ‘Political Malfeasance’ To Run Such An Ad Now.” (Jennifer Haberkorn, “Democrats Run Away From Health Care,” Politico, 9/7/10)