Research Briefing

Dems’ Latest Attempt At “Strategy” Is Just Another Failed Ploy To Distract From Economic Woes

On Wednesday, DNC Chairman Tim Kaine Will Unveil “Major Speech” As Part Of Media Blitz. “As workers re-engage after Labor Day, Kaine will go on morning shows Wednesday to preview a major speech he plans to deliver at lunchtime in the Hall of Flags at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia.” (Mike Allen, “Democrats Plan Fall Media Blitz,” Politico, 9/1/10)

FAILED STRATEGY #1: BLAME BUSH

JANUARY 2010: Dems’ Campaign Strategy Centered On Attacking Former President Bush. “After three consecutive losses in statewide races, some top Democrats are questioning a tactic aimed at boosting the party’s candidates in each of those contests: Bush-bashing.  Running as much against the Bush White House as he was running against Sen. John McCain, Barack Obama easily carried Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts in 2008.  Yet when Democratic nominees for governor in Virginia and New Jersey and for Senate in Massachusetts sought to tie their GOP opponents to the still-unpopular former president, the strategy didn’t resonate. Voters were more focused on the current administration or local political issues — and the onetime Democratic magic formula seemed yesterday’s news.” (Jonathan Martin, “Dems' Bush-Bashing Goes Bust,” Politico, 1/25/10)

• But Even A Dem Polling Memo Shows That The “Message Isn’t Sinking In.” “When I pointed to evidence this message [Bush-bashing] isn't sinking in -- a recent polling memo circulated by Dems found only 25 percent believe the GOP wants a return to Bush policies -- Van Hollen didn't respond directly. ‘Boehner's speech opened up greater opportunities to have that conversation,’ he said.” (Greg Sargent, “Van Hollen: We’ll Use Boehner As Weapon Against Republicans,” The Washington Post’s Plum Line Blog, 8/25/10)
• Dems’ “Controversial Agenda” And Economic Failures Are Causing Voters To Reject Democrats. “This is about the time when Democrats thought—or perhaps hoped—the political clouds that have hung over them all year would begin to lift. .Instead, those clouds may actually be getting darker. Mounting economic gloom and a controversial agenda are exacting a heavy toll on their prospects for keeping control of Congress in the Nov. 2 elections, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.”  (Gerald Seib, “Get Ready For An Anti-Incumbent Wave,” The Wall Street Journal, 9/7/10)

FAILED STRATEGY #2: FIRING UP THE LIBERAL BASE

APRIL 2010: DNC Chairman Tim Kaine Unveiled A New Strategy Focused On Targeting Minority And Target Voters. “Increasingly concerned about a demoralized base, Democratic Party leaders are accusing opponents of trying to delegitimize President Barack Obama and of preparing to suppress the votes of minority and poor voters in the November election.  Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine is expected to lay out in a speech Wednesday the party's latest plan to energize its base and appeal to such distinct groups as African-Americans, Latinos and younger voters, among others.” (“Democrats Take New Tack To Rally Base,” The Wall Street Journal, 4/28/10)

• But According To Gallup, There Is A 25 Point Enthusiasm Gap Favoring Republicans.  “For months, polls have shown motivated voters favoring Republicans by margins of 20 points or more, and the new Gallup survey registered this gap at 25 points. In primaries all year, Republicans have been turning out to vote in far greater numbers than Democrats have in their own primary elections.” (A.B. Stoddard, “The Enthusiasm Gap,” The Hill’s Pundits Blog, 9/2/10)
• Dem Voters Are Turning Away From The Party Because Of The Poor Economy. “Michelle Rena Jones cheered when candidates Barack Obama and Joe Biden visited south-central Michigan in 2008. She supported Mr. Obama that November along with a slate of Democrats, including Mark Schauer in the 7th congressional district.  Now, the 40-year-old is rethinking her lifelong support for the party. She has been without steady work for two years, lost her home and car and began receiving cash assistance from the state for the first time. This year, she says, ‘I'm willing to take a chance on something different.’ Another possibility, she says, is that she won't vote at all.”  (Gary Fields, “Democratic Seats Vulnerable On Jobs,” The Wall Street Journal, 8/12/10)

FAILED STRATEGY #3: “UNPRECEDENTED” VOTER OUTREACH

MAY 2010: At National Press Club Luncheon, DNC Chairman Tim Kaine Announced “Unprecedented Midterm Effort” To Reach Out To Voters. “To that end, the Democratic National Committee that I chair is gearing up for an unprecedented midterm effort. We'll be reaching out to Americans from all walks of life, to the people who powered this movement from the very beginning… Our message to Americans is pretty simple in the face of near- united Republican opposition, the president and Democrats have taken bold action to turn the economy around, lay a foundation for long-term prosperity and provide greater choices and opportunities for the American people, but there's still a lot to be done and the president can't do it alone.” (Tim Kaine, Remarks At National Press Club Luncheon, Washington, D.C., 5/19/10)

• But The Democrats Are At A 13 Point Disadvantage To The Republicans With Independent Voters. “Also, in August to date, the vote among independent registered voters has averaged 47% Republican to 34% Democratic, a 13-point GOP advantage. That compares with an average 10-point Republican advantage prior to this month.” (“GOP Shows Strongest Positioning Yet In 2010 Vote Test,” Gallup Polling, 8/17/10)

FAILED STRATEGY #4: TRY TO TIE THE GOP TO THE TEA PARTY

JULY 2010: Kaine Unveiled Yet Another Initiative: Tie Republicans To Tea Party. “Democrats on Wednesday rolled out what they said was a major initiative to link Republicans to the Tea Party movement… The Democratic National Committee (DNC) will unveil a new campaign called the ‘Republican-Tea Party Contract With America,’ a play on the Contract with America, the 1994 platform on which GOP candidates campaigned.” (Michael O’Brien, “Dems Seek To Tie GOP To Tea Party Movement,” The Hill, 7/28/10)

• But  It’s Not Just The Tea Party That Disapproves Of Obama; Independents View Obama Negatively On 10 Out Of 11 Important Issues. “Looking at independents who considered an issue extremely or very important, more strongly disapproved than strongly approved of Obama's handling of 12 of the 15 issues. This included mostly negative views of Obama from independents on 10 of the 11 issues most frequently cited by people as important, including the economy, unemployment and health care.” (Alan Fram, “AP-Gfk Poll: Most Attuned Voters Tilt Toward GOP,” The Associated Press, 8/31/10)

FAILED STRATEGY #5: SCARE SENIOR CITIZENS

AUGUST 2010: Kaine Tried Social Security Scare Tactics. “Democrats pledged Friday to not only keep Social Security in place, but use the historic program against Republicans ahead of the midterm election. ‘We will continue to highlight the Democratic Party's role in strengthening it and the Republican Party's role in opposing it,’ said Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine.’So that is one of the themes for the fall: It's critical to elect Democrats who will stand with the president to protect Social Security.’" (Ed Hornick, “Democrats To Use Social Security Against GOP This Fall,” CNN, 8/13/10)

• In A “Predictable” Move, Dems Are Using Social Security As A Scare Tactic And Obama Is “Leading The Charge.” “In a move as predictable as Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown, Democrats are using Social Security scare tactics to gain ground before the November election. President Barack Obama is not only tolerating this classic old politics maneuver by his party — he is leading the charge.”(Mark Halperin, “Obama On Social Security: Ending Bipartisanship Hopes,” Time, 8/23/10)
• Democrats Are Using Social Security And Medicare “To Scare Seniors” Into Voting For Democrats. “But in a sign they know how difficult a sell they have on the economy, Democrats also have been trying to shift the debate by warning voters that Republicans will privatize Social Security and decimate Medicare — perhaps an effort to scare seniors and get them to vote Democratic.”  (Liz Sidoti, “Analysis: Dems Out Of Jobs Options Before Election,” The Associated Press, 9/3/10)

FAILED STRATEGY #6: VOTERS WILL TURN TO DEMS

SEPTEMBER 2010: Kaine Will Argue That “Americans Have Turned To Democrats For Heavy Lifting In Tough Times” And Try To Compare Obama To FDR. “‘He’ll make a strong case for what Democrats and President [Barack] Obama have done and make an analogy to how often Americans have turned to Democrats for heavy lifting in tough times,’ the aide said. Kaine will invoke President Franklin D. Roosevelt following President Herbert Hoover, President Bill Clinton taking office following a recession and 12 years of Republican rule, and President Harry Truman running against a Republican Congress.” (Mike Allen, “Democrats Plan Fall Media Blitz,” Politico, 9/1/10)

• Republicans Lead By 10 Points In Gallup’s General Congressional Ballot, The Largest Lead In Gallup’s History.  “The latest Gallup tracking poll finds Republicans lead by 10 points in the general Congressional ballot among registered voters, 51% to 41%.  It’s the GOP lead is the largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.”  (“GOP Takes Unprecedented Lead In Generic Ballot,” Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire,” 8/30/10)
  
• “Little By Little, We're Starting To See More House Dems Running Ads Distancing Them From President Obama And Nancy Pelosi -- And Even Directly Taking Them On.” (Greg Sargent, “More House Dems Fleeing (And Bashing) Obama And Pelosi,” The Washington Post “Plum Line” Blog, 8/25/10)

DEMS ARE DESPERATE TO SPIN THEIR FAILED ECONOMIC POLICIES

ABC/Washington Post Poll Found 57 Percent Of Voters Disapprove Of Obama’s Handling Of The Economy. “A majority, 52 percent, now disapproves of the way Obama is handling his job overall, another first in ABC/Post polls. Intensity increasingly is against him, with those who disapprove ‘strongly’ outnumbering strong approvers by 14 points. A record 57 percent rate him negatively on handling the economy, ‘strongly’ so by an even wider margin, 2-1.” (Gary Langer, “Poll: Revolt Against Status Quo Gives Republicans Record Lead in 2010 Midterms,” ABC News, 9/7/10)

• NBC/The Wall Street Journal Poll: “[A]mericans Are Deeply Pessimistic About The State Of The Economy. Only 26 Percent Think The Economy Will Improve In The Next 12 Months (Which Is Down 14 Points From The Poll), And Just 26 Percent Believe Their Wages Will Increase In The Next Year.” (Mark Murray, “Poll: Clear GOP Advantage Ahead Of Midterms,” NBC News, 9/7/10)
• NBC/The Wall Street Journal Poll: “Perhaps More Ominous For Democrats, The Number Of Americans Who Approve Of Obama's Handling Of The Economy — The Top Issue In The Country — Has Declined Below 40 Percent For The First Time.” (Mark Murray, “Poll: Clear GOP Advantage Ahead Of Midterms,” NBC News, 9/7/10)

“According To The Poll, 58 Percent Believe That Republicans — If They Take Back Control Of Congress — Will Have Ideas That Differ From The Bush Administration's.” (Mark Murray, “Poll: Clear GOP Advantage Ahead Of Midterms,” NBC News, 9/7/10)

“61 Percent Say The United States Is Headed In The Wrong Direction; 65 Percent Believe The Nation Is In A State Of Decline; And 66 Percent Say They’re Not Confident That Life For Their Children’s Generation Will Be Better Than It Is Now.” (Mark Murray, “Poll: Clear GOP Advantage Ahead Of Midterms,” NBC News, 9/7/10)