Research Briefing

Ohio Dems Are All Verklempt Thanks To  Obama’s Meshugeh Health Care Experiment

PRESIDENT OBAMA: “I Know It's An Election Year.  …[I]t's Clear That Campaign Fever Has Come Even Earlier Than Usual.  But We Still Need To Govern.” (President Barack Obama, State Of The Union Address, Washington, DC, 1/27/10)

OBAMA’S CAMPAIGN FEVER HITS OHIO TODAY ON HEALTH CARE TOUR, WHILE BIDEN HITS THE STATE ON FUNDRAISING TOUR

On Monday, Obama Holds His Third “Campaign-Style” Event To Push Health Care Since Vowing “To Do Everything In His Power” To Pass It. “At the same time, the White House announced Obama would travel to Ohio on Monday — the third in a string of campaign-style appearances since he vowed several days ago to do everything in his power to assure enactment of his top domestic priority.” (The Associated Press, 3/12/10)

• With Obama Will Be Gov. Ted Strickland, But Will Senate Candidates Lee Fisher Or Jennifer Brunner Join Them? “But in Ohio, Gov. Ted Strickland is making sure his schedule is cleared for next week's visit by the president. Strickland, who is facing a tough challenge in his re-election bid from Republican John Kasich, will join Obama in northeast Ohio on Monday to promote his health care plan, a Strickland aide said.” (Peter Hamby, “Strickland Will Join Obama During Ohio Visit,” CNN’s Political Ticker Blog, 3/11/10)

And While Obama Talks Health Care, Vice President Biden Will Headline Fundraisers For Strickland And Rep. Steve Driehaus. “Vice President Joe Biden will headline a fundraiser for Gov. Ted Strickland on March 15 in Cleveland.  … The Cleveland law firm Climaco, Lefkowitz, Peca, Wilcox & Garofoli is hosting the 5 p.m. event for Strickland. Biden's trip is not all about Strickland, however. Biden is also the top guest the same day at a luncheon fundraiser for U.S. Rep. Steve Driehaus, a southwest Ohio Democrat.” (Mark Naymik, “Vice President Joe Biden To Raise Money For Gov. Ted Strickland,” The Plain Dealer, 3/4/10)

BUT AS OBAMA TALKS HEALTH CARE, OHIOANS ASKING ‘WHAT ABOUT JOBS?’

Ohioans Overwhelmingly Disapprove Of President Obama’s Health Care Plan 56 Percent To 33 Percent. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1,662 RV, MoE +/- 2.4, 2/16-21/10)

On His Last Visit In January, Obama Said He Would “Never Stop Fighting To Bring Jobs Back” To Ohio. “Obama's appearance in Elyria, a half-hour west of Cleveland, is part of a White House effort to have the president make a visceral connection with voters suffering in the aftermath of the worst economic downturn since the Depression. He used much of his appearance here to frame his policies around the economic anxiety gripping many Americans, an approach that critics say is often lacking in the cool and pragmatic president. ‘So long as I have the privilege of serving as your president, I'll never stop fighting for you. I'll take my lumps, too,’ he said. ‘I'll never stop fighting to bring jobs back to Elyria.’” (Michael A. Fletcher, “In Ohio, Obama Says He Won't 'Walk Away' From Health-Care Fight,” The Washington Post, 1/23/10)

But Since The Health Care Debate Began Back In March, Ohio Has Lost Over 162,000 Jobs.  (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov, Accessed 3/12/10)

• And Ohio’s Unemployment Rate Is Currently 10.8%. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov, Accessed 3/12/10)

That’s Why Voters Disapprove Of The Way Obama Is Handling The Economy, 57 Percent To 39 Percent. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1,662 RV, MoE +/- 2.4, 2/16-21/10)

They Also Disapprove Of Strickland’s Handling Of The Economy, 53 Percent To 35 Percent. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1,662 RV, MoE +/- 2.4, 2/16-21/10)

MAYBE THAT’S WHY STATE DEMS’ POLL NUMBERS ARE IN A TAILSPIN

Strickland’s Overall Disapproval Rating In The State Has Climbed To 53 Percent, With Just 43 Percent Approving.  (Rasmussen Reports Poll, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%, 3/4/10)

• That Is A 23 Point Spike Since Last May When Health Care Debate Began (56%-30%). (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1,299 RV, MoE +/- 2.7, 3/10-15/09)

Strickland Now Trails Potential Republican Opponent John Kasich By 11 Points, 49 Percent To 38 Percent. (Rasmussen Reports Poll, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%, 3/4/10)

• Back In March, Strickland Led Kasich By 20 Percent, 51 Percent To 31 Percent. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1,299 RV, MoE +/- 2.7, 3/10-15/09)

And Both Dem Senate Candidates, Lt. Gov Lee Fisher And OH Secretary Of State Jennifer Brunner Now Trail Potential Republican Opponent Rob Portman By At Least 5 Points. (Rasmussen Reports Poll, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%, 3/4/10)

AND OHIO’S CONGRESSIONAL DEMS MUST DECIDE WHETHER TO SIDE WITH CONSTITUENTS, OR FOLLOW OBAMA TO “UNMITIGATED DISASTER” AT POLLS

Eight Of The Nine Democratic Members Of Ohio’s Congressional Delegation Remain Undecided On Health Care Bill According To Latest Hill Whip Count. Rep. Zack Space (OH-18), Rep. Steve Driehaus (OH-1), Rep. John Boccieri (OH-16), Marcy Kaptur (OH-9), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Rep. Betty Sutton (OH-13), Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-17), Rep. Charlie Wilson (OH-6) (“WHIP COUNT: House Democrats' positions on the healthcare reform bill,” The Hill, Updated: 3/12/10)

By A Margin Of 39%-33%, Ohioans Don’t Believe That Their Own Member Of Congress Deserves To Be Re-Elected. (Rasmussen Reports Poll, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%, 3/4/10)

• 59% Believe The Country Would Be Better Off If Most Incumbents Were Not Re-Elected. (Rasmussen Reports Poll, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%, 3/4/10)
  
  
• 68 Percent Of Voters Are Dissatisfied With The Way Things Are Going In Ohio. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1,662 RV, MoE +/- 2.4, 2/16-21/10)

“Unless The Democrats Fundamentally Change Their Approach, They Will Produce Not Just A March Of Folly But Also Run The Risk Of Unmitigated Disaster In November.” (Patrick H. Caddell & Douglas E. Schoen, Op-Ed, “If Democrats Ignore Health-Care Polls, Midterms Will Be Costly,” The Washington Post, 3/12/10)

• “Democrats Are Pursuing Policies That Are Out Of Step With The Way Ordinary Americans Think And Feel About Politics And Government. Barring Some Change Of Approach, They Will Be Punished Severely At The Polls.” (Patrick H. Caddell & Douglas E. Schoen, Op-Ed, “If Democrats Ignore Health-Care Polls, Midterms Will Be Costly,” The Washington Post, 3/12/10)
  
  
• “Democrats’ Efforts To Manipulate Passage Of A Health-Care Bill … In The Face Of Constant Majority Opposition Invites A Backlash Against The Party At Every Level -- And At A Time When We Already Face The Prospect Of Losing 30 Or More House Seats And Eight Or More Senate Seats.” (Patrick H. Caddell & Douglas E. Schoen, Op-Ed, “If Democrats Ignore Health-Care Polls, Midterms Will Be Costly,” The Washington Post, 3/12/10)