Research Briefing

As Chris Van Hollen Tries To Spin Gloomy Election Outlook, Dems’ Real Campaign Strategy Based On Desperate Tactics

“Democratic Congressional Campaign Chair Congressman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) … Will Discuss Why He Believes Democrats Deserve To Win The Off-Year Elections And How They Plan To Do It.” (“DCCC Chair Congressman Chris Van Hollen To Update 2010 Elections Issues,” Press Release, The National Press Club, Accessed 8/26/10)

DEMOCRATS ARE SCARED ABOUT THEIR PROSPECTS IN NOVEMBER

Dems Are Becoming “Markedly More Pessimistic” About Keeping Control Of The House. “Top Democrats are growing markedly more pessimistic about holding the House, privately conceding the summertime economic and political recovery they were banking on will not likely materialize by Election Day.“ (Jim VandeHei, Alex Isenstadt & Mike Allen, “Democrats Privately Fear House Prospects Worsening,” Politico, 8/25/10)

• Because They Don’t Believe That Obama’s “Recovery Summer” Has Materialized. “They no longer believe the jobs and housing markets will recover – or that anything resembling the White House’s promise of a ‘recovery summer’ is under way.” (Jim VandeHei, Alex Isenstadt & Mike Allen, “Democrats Privately Fear House Prospects Worsening,” Politico, 8/25/10)

Dem Pollster: “The Reality Is That [The House Majority] Is Probably Gone.” “A Democratic pollster working on several of the key races said ‘the reality is that [the House majority] is probably gone.’ His data shows the Democrats’ problems are only getting worse. ‘It’s spreading.’” (Jim VandeHei, Alex Isenstadt & Mike Allen, “Democrats Privately Fear House Prospects Worsening,” Politico, 8/25/10)

• And Dems Now Think That “The Senate Is Going To Be A Lot Closer” Than They First Thought. “’Democrats kept thinking: “We’re going to get better. We’re going to get well before the election,”’ said one of Washington’s best-connected Democrats. ‘But as of this week, you now have people saying that Republicans are going to win the House. And now it’s starting to look like the Senate is going to be a lot closer than people thought.’” (Jim VandeHei, Alex Isenstadt & Mike Allen, “Democrats Privately Fear House Prospects Worsening,” Politico, 8/25/10)

SO THEY ARE FOCUSED ON “WINNING UGLY,” BY ATTACKING THEIR OPPONENTS …

“Harry Reid's Strategy: Winning Ugly.” (Manu Raju, “Harry Reid's Strategy: Winning Ugly,” Politico, 8/21/10)

• Is Reid Lashing Out At Sharron Angle Because Of Polling Numbers? “In what appears to be a change in style, Sen. Harry Reid today lashed out in person at his GOP opponent, Sharron Angle.  Could be just a change in gears at the Reid camp. But you gotta wonder whether the change is precipitated by polling that shows their horse slipping behind Angle.” (Sherman Frederick, “Are Reid Attacks A Sign Of Slipping Polls?,” The Las Vegas Review Journal, 8/25/10)

“[E]very Incumbent Senate Dem Facing A Tough Challenge Has Started Airing Negative Ads.” (“Go Negative, Young Man,” National Journal’s “The Hotline,” 8/25/10)

Instead Of Focusing On Issues, Dems Focused On Digging Up Dirt On Opponents. “The Democratic Party is moving faster and more aggressively than in previous election years to dig up unflattering details about Republican challengers. In House races from New Jersey to Ohio to California, Democratic operatives are seizing on evidence of GOP candidates' unpaid income taxes, property tax breaks and ties to financial firms that received taxpayer bailout money.”  (Philip Rucker, “Democrats Digging Harder Than Ever For Dirt On Republicans,” The Washington Post, 7/7/10)

Dem Leaders Are Urging Campaigns To Hire Trackers. “Democratic officials are advising campaigns to hire trackers to follow their Republican opponents to public events with video cameras, ready to catch any gaffe or misstatement. And the Democratic National Committee last week issued a call to the public to submit any embarrassing audio or video of Republicans, as well as copies of their direct-mail advertisements.” (Philip Rucker, “Democrats Digging Harder Than Ever For Dirt On Republicans,” The Washington Post, 7/7/10)

• The DNC Even Put Out A Call For ‘Gotcha’ Videos And Calls It “Accountability.” “The Democratic National Committee put out a call last week for volunteers from the public to begin following Republican candidates and submitting embarrassing audio and video to a website, www.accountabilityproject.com.  ‘The Accountability Project allows you to submit videos, recordings, and other items for publication online, so that candidates see that there's a cost to their dishonesty -- and so that everyday citizens can see what their Republican candidates for office are saying,’ the DNC said in announcing the project.” (Laura Myers, “Parties Playing ‘Gotcha’ Games,” Las Vegas Review-Journal, 7/5/10)

… WHILE RUNNING AWAY FROM DEMOCRAT LEADERS AND THEIR AGENDA

“Dozens Of Endangered Dems” Are Keeping The Democrats’ “Agenda At Arm’s Length.” “Kagen and Hill are just two examples of dozens of endangered House Democrats who are holding their party's agenda at arm’s length, declining to highlight their votes on some of the biggest accomplishments of the Democratic Congress as they campaign for reelection.” (Jake Sherman, “Endangered Dems Quiet On Key Votes,” Politico, 8/21/10)

• The White House Is Urging Dems To Not Talk About What They Did This Session, Including ObamaCare. “In an effort coordinated with the White House, congressional leaders are urging Democrats to focus less on bragging about what they have done — a landmark healthcare law, a sweeping overhaul of Wall Street regulation and other far-reaching policy changes — and more on efforts to fix the economy and on the perils of Republican control of Congress.” (Janet Hook, “Democratic Candidates Ignore Legislative Successes,” The Los Angeles Times, 8/9/10)
• And “The Plan” Is To Avoid Mentioning The Stimulus. "The plan, as laid out by Democratic strategists, includes two big elements: renewed attention by candidates on hometown construction projects--often without mentioning the unpopular economic stimulus bill that provided the funding--and a ramped-up effort at national Democratic headquarters to find negative information about GOP candidates."  (Peter Wallsten and Jim Carlton, "For Democrats, Politics Is Local Again," The Wall Street Journal, 7/8/10)

Dems Are Even Running Ads Distancing Themselves Or Bashing Obama And Pelosi. “Little by little, we're starting to see more House Dems running ads distancing them from President Obama and Nancy Pelosi -- and even directly taking them on. Some of the spots bash the Obama/Dem agenda in ways that echo GOP talking points.” (Greg Sargent, “More House Dems Fleeing (And Bashing) Obama And Pelosi,” The Washington Post’s “The Plum Line” Blog, 8/25/10)

• “[A] New Spot From Blue Dog Dem Jason Altmire Of Pennsylvania, Which Not Only Trumpets His Vote Against Health Reform, But Also Proclaims His Willingness To ‘Stand Up’ To Obama And Pelosi.” (Greg Sargent, “More House Dems Fleeing (And Bashing) Obama And Pelosi,” The Washington Post’s “The Plum Line” Blog, 8/25/10)
• “And Here Is A New Spot From Blue Dog Dem Bobby Bright Of Alabama, Which Trumpets His Vote Against The ‘Massive Government Healthcare’ Bill, And Proclaims That He's An ‘Independent Conservative.’” (Greg Sargent, “More House Dems Fleeing (And Bashing) Obama And Pelosi,” The Washington Post’s “The Plum Line” Blog, 8/25/10)
• “[A] New Ad That Blue Dog Dem Glenn Nye Of Virginia Is Running, Proclaiming His Vote Against The Health Care Bill And His Willingness To Go ‘Against His Own Party.’” (Greg Sargent, “More House Dems Fleeing (And Bashing) Obama And Pelosi,” The Washington Post’s “The Plum Line” Blog, 8/25/10)