Research Briefing

“Biden Conceded That The Economic Recovery Was Not Proceeding As Fast As The Administration Had Hoped, But Claimed There Was ‘No Doubt We're Moving In The Right Direction.’" (Mike Mermoli, “Biden: 'We've Seen This Movie Before',” The Chicago Tribune, 8/24/10)

TROUBLE SIGNS ACROSS BROAD ECONOMIC INDICATORS

CONTRADICT BIDEN’S ROSY ASSESSMENT

MSNBC’s Chuck Todd: “I Have To Say These Housing Numbers, This Entire Summer, Remember It Began – The Administration Called It ‘Recovery Summer.’ Every Economic Indicator Has Collapsed In The Last Two Months.” (Msnbc, “The Daily Rundown,” 8/25/10)

Dow Jones Newswire: “The 27.2 Percent Plunge In July Sales Of Us Existing Homes -- Almost Twice The Drop Expected -- Was A Head-Turner.” (Kathleen Madigan, “Dangerous Fall In Us House Sales,” Dow Jones Newswires, 8/24/10)

Marketwatch: “U.S. New Home Sales Plunged To A New All-Time Low In July, The Commerce Department Estimated Wednesday.  The Decrease In New-Home Sales To A Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Of 276,000 Was Well Below The 339,000 Pace Expected By Economists Surveyed By Marketwatch.” (Greg Robb, “July New Home Sales Plunge To Record Low Pace,” Marketwatch, 8/25/10)

• “New Home Sales Fell 12.4 Percent In July, The Commerce Department Reported Wednesday, Confirming That The U.S. Housing Market Continues To Falter.” (“Sales Of New Homes Fell 12.4 Percent In July,” MSNBC, 8/25/10)

CNN Money: “With Home Sales Plunging To Their Lowest Level In 15 Years, Economists Warn That A Double-Dip In Housing Prices Is Just Around The Corner, Threatening To Further Slow The Overall Recovery.” (Hibah Yousuf, “Plunging Home Sales Could Sink Recovery,” CNNmoney.Com, 8/24/10)

• CNN Money: “Home Sales Were Eye-Wateringly Weak In July. . .” (Hibah Yousuf, “Plunging Home Sales Could Sink Recovery,” CNNmoney.Com, 8/24/10)

The New York Times: “Americans’ Long Infatuation With Owning A Home, Which Even The Economic Collapse Of 2008 Could Not Kill, Shuddered And Stalled Last Month.” (David Streitfeld, “Housing Market Plunged In July, Fueling Anxiety,” The New York Times, 8/24/10)

• NY Times: “The Steep Descent Surprised Nearly Every Analyst And Put The Volume Of Single-Family Home Sales At The Lowest Level Since 1995.” (David Streitfeld, “Housing Market Plunged In July, Fueling Anxiety,” The New York Times, 8/24/10)
• NY Times: “The Financial Markets Took The News Badly, With The Dow Jones Industrial Average Closing Down 134 Points To A Six-Month Low.” (David Streitfeld, “Housing Market Plunged In July, Fueling Anxiety,” The New York Times, 8/24/10)

The New York Times’ “Economix” Blog: “Existing Home Sales Swan Dive” (Catherine Rampall, “Existing Home Sales Swan Dive,” The New York Times “Economix” Blog, 8/24/10)

• Economix: “Fewer Housing Purchases Mean Fewer Purchases Of Housing-Related Consumer Products. A Weak Housing Market Also Means That Consumers Might Feel Poorer And Therefore Be Less Likely To Spend In General Even If Their Incomes Rise.” (Catherine Rampall, “Existing Home Sales Swan Dive,” The New York Times “Economix” Blog, 8/24/10)

The Wall Street Journal: “Day After Day, Investors Have Been Hit With More Evidence That The Economy Is Stalling.” (Jonathan Cheng, “Dow Industrials Fall To 7-Week Low,” The Wall Street Journal, 8/25/10)

The Atlantic’s David Indiviglio: “At No Point, Even When The Recession And Crisis Were At Full Strength, Were Existing Sales Nearly So Low -- They Never Even Dipped Below 4.5 Million.” (David Indiviglio, “How Bad Was July's Plummet In Home Sales?,” The Atlantic, 8/24/10)

Time: “No More Need To Wait For The Double Dip In Housing. It Appears To Be Here.” (Stephen Gandel, “The Not-So-Bright Spot In The Gloomy Housing Report,” Time “Curious Capitalist” Blog, 8/24/10)

The Los Angeles Times: “The Big Drop, Which Was Worse Than What Many Analysts Had Expected, Sent Stock Markets Tumbling Tuesday Morning As Investors Feared A Double Dip In Housing.” (Alejandro Lazo, “Sales Of Existing U.S. Homes Fall 27%,” The Los Angeles Times, 8/24/10)

The Christian Science Monitor: “At The Very Least, It Now Looks Likely To Many That The Economy Will Be Growing Too Slowly To Generate Substantial Job Gains In Coming Months.” (Mark Trumball, “Record Plunge For Home Sales Could Weigh Heavily On Economic Recovery,” The Christian Science Monitor, 8/24/10)

Reuters: “Many Economists Worry That, Without Housing As An Engine Of Growth, The Economy Could Take Much Longer Than Usual To Recover.” (“Risk Of Double-Dip Recession Has Risen: Fed's Evans” Reuters, 8/24/10)

Michelle Meyer, Senior U.S. Economist At Bank Of America: “For The Overall Economy, The Dangerous Link To Housing Is Home Prices And This Report Signifies That Home Prices Should Fall Considerably Faster, Which Could Tip The Economy Back Into A Recession.” (“Instant View: Existing Home Sales Plunge To 15-Year Low,” Reuters, 8/24/10)

Jim Cramer: “The Charts Show No Faith. Doesn't Matter The Industry, Health Care, Tech, Banks Or Defense Companies. They All Look Terrible. Just Horrible.” (Jim Cramer, “Cramer: It’s Really Really Ugly Out There,” The Street, 8/23/10)

• Cramer: “Not Saying, Therefore, That Everything Must Go Down. Am Saying That It Is Really, Really Ugly Almost Everywhere You Look.” (Jim Cramer, “Cramer: It’s Really Really Ugly Out There,” The Street, 8/23/10)

Barclays Capital’s Theresa Chen: “‘Overall, The July Report Was Notably Worse Than Expectations And Shows The Housing Market Has Not Yet Found A Bottom Following The End Of The Stimulus Measures,’ Says Theresa Chen Of Barclays Capital.” (Carl Gutierrez, “July Slump Paints Ugly Picture For Home Sales,” Forbes, 8/24/10)

Keith Springer, President Of Capital Financial Services: "The Wheels Are Coming Off The Recovery. You're Seeing No Aggregate Demand At All. You Have $12 Trillion In Stimulus And The Best You Can Do 2 To 2.5 Percent Gross Domestic Product ... You Should Be At 7 Or 8 Percent.” (“Instant View: Existing Home Sales Plunge To 15-Year Low,” Reuters, 8/24/10)

The Hill: “Since Coming Into Office, President Obama Has Undertaken A Series Of Policy Initiatives Intended To Stabilize Home Prices, Boost Demand And Reduce Foreclosures. But A Series Of Recent Reports Indicate Those Policies Have Not Stopped The Precipitous Decline In Housing…” (Silla Brush, “Ugly Report On Existing Home Sales Is Latest Setback For Democrats,” The Hill, 8/24/10)

• The Hill: “The Continued Problems In The Housing Market Are Bad News For Democrats, Who Are Already Struggling To Convince The Public Their Policies Are Moving The Economy In The Right Direction.” (Silla Brush, “Ugly Report On Existing Home Sales Is Latest Setback For Democrats,” The Hill, 8/24/10)

ABC’s Jake Tapper: “And While 18 Months Ago President Obama Announced A $75 Billion Housing Program That Would Help 3-4 Million Americans Keep Their Homes, The Value Of The Program Is Debatable.” (Jake Tapper, “Horrible Housing News,” ABC News, 8/25/10)

• Tapper: “Slightly More Than 400,000 Americans Have Received Permanent Mortgage Modifications, With Some Liberals Now Openly Complaining That The Program Was Actually More Of A Backdoor Way To Help Banks, Not Homeowners.” (Jake Tapper, “Horrible Housing News,” ABC News, 8/25/10)

The Washington Post: “A Rapidly Weakening Economy Threatens To Undermine President Obama's Assertion That He Has Set The Nation On A Path To Prosperity And, With Barely Two Months Until Congressional Midterm Elections, Democrats Find Themselves With Few Options For Reviving The Faltering Recovery.”  (Lori Montgomery, “As Midterms Loom, Democrats Work To Shore Up Faltering Recovery,” The Washington Post, 8/25/10)