Research Briefing

Pelosi’s Bill Violates Several Of Obama’s Pledges On Health Care Reform. Will Obama Veto It?

OBAMA MADE SEVERAL PLEDGES ABOUT WHAT MUST BE INCLUDED IN HEALTH REFORM

Obama Pledged To Make Health Care Cheaper For American Families. “The plan I’m announcing tonight … will slow the growth of health care costs for our families ...” (President Barack Obama, Remarks To A Joint Session Of Congress On Health Care, Washington, DC, 9/9/09)

Obama Pledged Not To Raise Taxes On Middle Class Americans. “I can make a firm pledge. Under my plan, no family making less than $250,000 a year will see any form of tax increase. Not your income tax, not your payroll tax, not your capital gains taxes, not any of your taxes.” (Sen. Barack Obama, Remarks In Dover, NH, 9/12/08)

Obama Pledged Americans Could Keep Their Plan And Their Doctor. “[N]othing in this plan will require you or your employer to change the coverage or the doctor you have. Let me repeat this:  Nothing in our plan requires you to change what you have.” (President Barack Obama, Remarks To A Joint Session Of Congress On Health Care, Washington, DC, 9/9/09)

Obama Pledged His Plan Wouldn’t Add To The Deficit. “I will not sign it if it adds one dime to the deficit, now or in the future, period.” (President Barack Obama, Remarks To A Joint Session Of Congress On Health Care, Washington, DC, 9/9/09)

SO WILL HE VETO PELOSI’S HEALTH CARE EXPERIMENT FOR BREAKING THOSE PROMISES?

New Mandates In Pelosi’s Bill “Could Have The Unintended Consequence Of Raising Health Insurance Premiums.” “Obamacare could have the unintended consequence of raising health insurance premiums and causing a decline in the number of people with insurance …  A key feature of the House and Senate health bills would prevent insurance companies from denying coverage to anyone with preexisting conditions … This well-intentioned feature would provide a strong incentive for someone who is healthy to drop his or her health insurance, saving the substantial premium costs … As healthy individuals decline coverage in this way, insurance companies would come to have a sicker population. The higher cost of insuring that group would force insurers to raise their premiums.” (Martin Feldstein, Op-Ed, “Obamacare’s Nasty Surprise,” The Washington Post, 11/6/09)

Tax Hike In Pelosi’s Bill On Individuals Who Can’t Afford Insurance Would Hit Many Americans Earning Less Than $200,000. “You asked about the proposal for the tax on individuals without acceptable health care coverage.  And, it’s a tax on the individual’s wages over an AGI threshold.  And, the AGI threshold says, I pointed out this morning, in 2009, would be $18,700 on a joint return, $9,350 on an individual return.  So, yes, one would have to say that there would be taxes on individuals with adjusted gross income less than $200,000 in that circumstance.” (Thomas Barthold, Deputy Chief Of Staff Of The Joint Committee On Taxation, House Ways And Means Committee, Testimony, 7/16/09)

“Public Option” In Pelosi’s Bill Could Mean Over 88 Million Americans Losing Current Coverage. "Under current law, there will be about 158.1 million people who are covered under an employer plan as workers, dependents or early retirees in 2011. If the act were fully implemented in that year, about 88.1 million workers would shift from private employer insurance to the public plan." (John Shelis, Vice President, Lewin Group, "Analysis Of The July 15 Draft Of The American Affordable Health Choices Act Of 2009," 7/17/09)

Medicare Cuts In Pelosi’s Bill Would Force Doctors To Decline Seniors. “Rep. Eric Massa said tightening provider payments could lead to access problems for patients. ‘We will force doctors to decline Medicare patients,’ he said after a raucous town-hall meeting in Upstate New York. ‘If we believe these savings are there, let’s test the concept. But we can’t hinge the entire funding of this bill on these not-yet-seen savings.’” (Ceci Connolly, “Seniors Remain Wary Of Health-Care Reform,” The Washington Post, 8/9/09)

Pelosi’s Bill Hides “Doc Fix” Provision That Would Add Over $200 Billion To Deficit. “The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the House plan to prevent cuts to doctors' Medicare reimbursement rates would cost $210 billion over 10 years, according to a just released analysis. The big price tag is no surprise and was the main reason House Democrats introduced the so-called ‘doc fix’ legislation separately from their $1.2 trillion reform bill -- Dems were trying to keep the cost of the reform bill as close to President Obama's target of $900 billion as possible.” (Chris Frates, “BREAKING-CBO Releases Cost Estimate On House Doc Fix,” Politico’s “Live Pulse” Blog, 11/4/09)

HERE’S ONE HEALTH REFORM BILL OBAMA CAN SIGN WITHOUT BREAKING ANY PLEDGES

CBO Confirms Republican Bill Would Lower Premiums For Americans By Up To 10 Percent. “CBO estimates that the combination of provisions included in the amendment would reduce average private health insurance premiums per enrollee in the United States relative to what they would be under current law. The average reductions would be larger in the markets for small group and individually purchased policies, which are the focus of many of the legislation’s provisions. In the small group market, which represents about 15 percent of total private premiums, the amendment would lower average insurance premiums in 2016 by an estimated 7 percent to 10 percent compared with amounts under current law.” (Congressional Budget Office, Letter To Honorable John A. Boehner, 11/4/09)

Republican Bill Would Expand Coverage Without Taxing Middle Class. “The legislation would also direct federal funds to states that establish pools to defray the costs of covering the most high-risk individuals, encouraging the 16 states that don’t to establish them. Republicans think lowering the costs to insure these high-risk individuals is the key to reducing premiums across the entire health care system. In contrast, Democrats seek to expand coverage and lower costs by requiring all Americans to purchase insurance ...” (Patrick O’Connor, “GOP Health Bill Focuses On Lower Costs,” Politico, 11/2/09)

Republican Bill Would Expand Health Savings Accounts For Americans To Pay For Their Own Plans And Visits To Their Own Doctors. “The amendment contains several provisions that are intended to increase rates of insurance coverage by reducing its costs or subsidizing its purchase, including: … Changes to health savings accounts (HSAs) to allow funds in them to be used to pay premiums under certain circumstances, to make net contributions to HSAs eligible for the saver’s credit, and to provide a 60-day grace period for medical expenses incurred prior to the establishment of an HSA.” (Congressional Budget Office, Letter To Honorable John A. Boehner, 11/4/09)

Republican Bill Will Reduce Deficit By $68 Billion Over Next Decade. “According to CBO and JCT’s assessment, enacting the amendment would result in a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $68 billion over the 2010–2019 period.” (Congressional Budget Office, Letter To Honorable John A. Boehner, 11/4/09)