To:          Interested Parties

From:    Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director

RE:          Greek Columns?  Remember That?

Date:     February 7, 2012

Remember the 2008 Democratic National Convention? Obama gave his acceptance speech on a stage bigger than even Joe Biden can exaggerate, flanked by gigantic Greek columns, and greeted by an audience reception reminiscent of young high school girls at a 1960’s Beatles concert. Democrats had chosen Denver as their convention site in support of a “Western strategy” to pick off electoral votes in traditional GOP states in the Mountain West and Southwest. To give credit where credit is due, Obama delivered a great speech, and the Democrats were successful at flipping Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico into Barack Obama’s column. But that speech is also a perfect reminder of what typifies the Obama presidency – grandiose promises that sound great when spoken and ultimately ring hollow after providing no results. 

As Obama continues to struggle elsewhere he is once again confronted with the need to follow a Western strategy. He needs states in the West to offset potential losses in Rust Belt states and Southeastern states. But states like Colorado aren’t as friendly as they were four years ago, and it’s hard to find anything that doesn’t foretell a weaker position for President Obama this year.

Let’s first look at jobs. You could fill Sports Authority Field at Mile High (the venue for Obama’s 2008 speech) more than two and a half times with the number of Coloradans that are currently out of work. Over 62,000 Coloradans have lost their job on his watch, and the total number of persons without work (based on preliminary estimates for December) is greater than Obama’s margin of victory in 2008.

Next let’s look at job performance. Opinion of the president’s job performance is far below what it was when he entered office. PPP measured his job approval at 45% in December, far below the 54% of the vote with which Obama was elected. Gallup’s approval average for 2011 was a paltry 40%, which is the lowest of the three Western states that Obama picked up in 2008, and 12 points under the average approval they measured in 2009. Two-thirds (67%) of Colorado’s Hispanic independent voters, said Obama’s leadership has been weaker than expected and 61% said he’s failed to deliver on his promises (Resurgent Republic, Sept 2011).

Most importantly Colorado is still, at the end of the day, a GOP-leaning state. Obama was only the second Democrat to win Colorado in a presidential election in 40 years (Bill Clinton barely won it in 1992, only to lose it in 1996). Republicans had a strong year in 2010, and even after the Democrats strong voter registration push in 2008, Republicans still maintain a partisan registration advantage, and that advantage is growing.  

Colorado saw its share of comebacks last year, but unfortunately Obama isn’t wearing number 15.  

###

To:          Interested Parties

From:     Rick Wiley

RE:          What Happens in Vegas…

Date:      February 3, 2012

The economic statistics from Nevada are staggering. The Silver State has the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 12.6%, nearly 82,000 jobs have been lost there since Obama took office and Nevada has the highest rate of property foreclosure for the fifth consecutive year. Let’s toss in the fact that since the president took office, median household incomes have fallen by more than $5000 and you have a recipe for disaster brewing on the Vegas Strip. It is no wonder Obama insults Nevada every time he heads west to vacuum up campaign cash. There is no way the voters can think highly of a president whose policies have inflicted so much financial hardship on one state. 

To be fair, Nevada’s economic problems didn’t begin the day Obama took office. But it’s also fair to remind voters that Obama put himself on the clock three years ago when he promised relief from the economic downturn, and these statistics make it clear he’s failed miserably at delivering on those promises for Nevadans.

As one of the nine battleground states that he flipped in 2008, holding Nevada is critically important to Obama’s electoral vote math. Holding onto Nevada isn’t going to be easy, though.  

• Nevada is hardly a Democrat fortress. Looking at history, Obama was the first Democrat candidate for president to break 50% in Nevada in 40 years. Bill Clinton was the only other Democrat to carry Nevada in that span, winning against a fractured opposition with only 38% and 44% in 1992 and 1996 respectively. 
• Public opinion toward Obama has taken a nose dive. Gallup’s report this week of presidential approval ratings by state shows a steep and steady decline for the president across the country, with Nevada among the states leading the charge. Among the nine states that switched from George Bush to Obama, only Indiana and New Hampshire have lower approval ratings and steeper declines since 2009 than Nevada.
• Obama’s job approval problems exist across all parties. According to PPP data from last year, Obama is upside-down among critical Independents by 11 points. He gets almost no support from Republicans (at 6% approval). And nearly 1 in 5 (17%) of Democrats disapprove of the job he is doing.
• Amid one of the most rapidly changing electorates (only a quarter of Nevada’s population was born there) Republicans are gaining on Democrats in voter registration, and have narrowed the Democrat’s advantage among active voters by over 50% - from over 100,000 in 2008 to under 50,000 today. And while Democrats enjoyed an 8-point advantage among those who voted in 2008, they had only a 2-point advantage among those who voted in 2010.
• To lead the GOP’s momentum, Republicans have strong new leadership in the state, with Governor Brian Sandoval elected in 2010 as Nevada’s first Hispanic governor, newly appointed US Senator Dean Heller, Congressman Joe Heck elected in 2010 in the previously Democrat-held 3^rd Congressional District, and recent Special Election winner Mark Amodei in the 2^nd Congressional District.

It is in this hole, and against a stronger Republican Party, that President Obama begins his 2012 campaign in Nevada. On Saturday, Republicans in Nevada will take another step towards nominating his opponent. Unfortunately, what happens in Vegas will not stay in Vegas, and Obama will have a fight on his hands all the way to November.

 ###

To:          Interested Parties

From:     Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director

RE:           Obama’s Rainy Day

Date:      January 31, 2012

It’s hard to imagine Florida not being the most contested prize along the path to 270 this year. Their 29 Electoral Vote haul is by far the largest among the states in play. The prototypical battleground state has given their Electoral Votes to the eventual winner of nine of the last ten presidential elections. And with so many other battleground states in the toss-up column this year, President Obama’s chances of winning reelection would amount to a four-cushion bank shot if he comes up short in the Sunshine State.

Unfortunately for Obama, Florida isn’t a walk in the park under any circumstances. Each of the last five presidential elections in Florida has been decided by 5 points or less, and three times by 3 points or less. The 537 vote margin of victory for George W. Bush in 2000 was among the closest in modern presidential history (only New Mexico in 2000 and Hawaii in 1960 have been decided by fewer votes). The president himself garnered only 51% of the vote in his 2008 victory over John McCain. He therefore has precious few votes to lose, and there are more than enough opportunities for him to lose them.

The challenge of winning in Florida is the diversity of its electorate. Florida was among the fastest growing states between the last two censuses, ranking 2^nd in total population growth, and 8^th in rate of growth. Florida ranks 1^st in the nation in the percentage of the electorate over the age of 65. Florida has the 2^nd largest Jewish population in the nation. Florida has the 3^rd largest Hispanic population, and ranks 6^th among states with the highest Hispanic percentage of population. Florida’s Hispanic population itself is diverse, with the largest Cuban and second largest Puerto Rican populations in the country. This diversity presents a mixed-bag of challenges for the president, and any of these challenges can jeopardize his chances.

• While the state population is growing, the Democrat Party’s advantage in partisan registration is shrinking. The Democrat share of overall registration has declined in each of the last 26 months, and since the 2008 election, the Democrat registration advantage has dropped by almost 30% from nearly 700,000 to fewer than 500,000 today.   
• With the highest voter-participation rate among all age groups, Florida’s over-65 population is right now one of the weakest demographic groups for Obama. The most recent Quinnipiac survey shows a 38% job approval rating for the president among voters over 65. 
•  After three years of a bumbling foreign policy toward Israel and several embarrassing statements made about Israel by his administration, Jewish voters are second-guessing their support of the president in the last election. As a “core” Democrat constituency, Jewish voters are important to Obama’s fundraising and activist base, as well as his electoral coalition. 
• Florida’s Hispanic voters have been unimpressed by the president. Resurgent Republic’s recent survey of Florida Hispanics showed the president running 11 points behind his 2008 performance. In addition, 56% of Florida’s Hispanic voters said Obama has been a weaker than expected leader, and 60% said his campaign promises remain unfulfilled. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of Cuban voters said it is time to give someone else a chance.  
•  Adding insult to injury, Independent voters, who represent the fastest growing partisan group in Florida, also aren’t buying what Obama is selling. Only 39% of “no-party” voters said they approve of the job Obama is doing in a January Suffolk University poll.

The most important change in Florida on Obama’s watch, however, has been the disproportionately high toll the nation’s weak economy has taken. Job loss has hit Florida harder than most states, especially among Hispanic voters and younger voters. Foreclosures are up, property values are down, and barely a quarter of Florida voters think the country is headed in the right direction. The president has to explain to Floridians why he’s placed a higher priority on campaigning than on fixing the economy.

Standing in Obama’s way in Florida is a rejuvenated Republican Party. Higher enthusiasm among Republican voters and strong support from Independents resulted in big wins for Republicans in 2010, including sending one of the GOP’s fastest-rising stars, Senator Marco Rubio, to Washington. Higher enthusiasm among Republicans continues to be the norm, with 51% of Republicans surveyed by Quinnipiac this month saying they are more enthusiastic about the upcoming election than they were four years ago (and for their part, only 33% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic). Turnout in this week’s GOP Presidential Preference Primary is expected to be record-setting, and Tampa will host the Republican National Convention later this year.  

Close elections are about momentum, and the momentum in Florida is moving in the direction of the Republican Party right now. In spite of its nickname, the Sunshine State looks awfully cloudy for Obama, and may very well rain on his parade in November.

 ###

To:        Interested Parties

From:    Rick Wiley

RE:       GOP Voter Registration Advantage

Date:     January 17, 2012

The GOP has the momentum. It’s all in the numbers.

The Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary brought out a record number of voters—many voting Republican for the first time in their lives. With over 70 percent of Americans looking for a new direction, voters are turning decidedly to the Republican Party.

An analysis of voter registration numbers demonstrates that the promising trend is not isolated only to Iowa and New Hampshire. In every battleground state for which there is relevant registration data available, the GOP has either narrowed the registration gap or increased our lead since 2008. And that’s bad news for Democrats.

In Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, the GOP enters 2012 from a stronger position. All are states Team Obama has identified as necessary to their pathway to victory. In all of these states, the net change from 2008 to 2011 (or early 2012 in some cases; see chart below) favors the GOP. 

(Note: the other battleground states, Indiana, Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Washington, and Ohio do not report registration in a way that makes such analysis possible.)

Furthermore, there are only a handful of states in which the net change from 2008 to today favors Democrats, and all are reliably blue states. Needless to say none of those is on the GOP path to 270 electoral votes. That means the GOP enters 2012 with a stronger position in all remaining states—all battleground states included—as compared to 2008. As enthusiasm during the nominating process continues to favor us, we expect our registration position to continue to improve.  

This adds up to trouble for Democrats. Their turnout efforts are already complicated by the fact that there is less enthusiasm on the Democratic side. Many Democrats, while not yet prepared to jump ship, are dispirited enough by Obama’s failed promises that they could likely sit out 2012. 

A Gallup poll released this week corroborates the trend observed in the registration data. The number of self-identified Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents is down sharply since 2008, while the number of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents continues to tick upward. 

According to Gallup, in 2008, 52 percent of Americans identified as Democrats or Democrat-leaning independents; 40 percent were Republican or Republican-leaning. By the end of 2011, both groups stood at 45 percent. In three years, the 12-point Democrat advantage evaporated entirely.

So while 2008 represented a record high for Democrats, 2011 marks the lowest point since Gallup began reporting these figures in 1991. (In 1991 the Democratic figure was 44 percent.) In other words, Democrats have gone from a record high in 2008 to a low-water mark in 2011.

As Gallup reports, the 2011 numbers are “similar to 2010, when the Democrats had a 1-point advantage in leaned party identification.” Republicans saw sweeping victories in 2010, and now, as we enter 2012, our numbers look even better. Meanwhile, as the media focus remains on the Republican candidates and their efforts to highlight the failings of President Obama and their respective solutions, Republican appeal should only grow. 

There are many ways to quantify the Republican advantage in 2012. Partisan registration and party self-identification data are just two such ways, but they unambiguously point to the fact that the momentum is indeed on the GOP side.

###

To:         Interested Parties

From:      Rick Wiley

RE:         The Latino Vote

Date:      January 11, 2012

You would have to be living under a rock to not recognize the growing importance of the Latino vote, both today and in elections to come. The facts about demographic change are indisputable. Fifty thousand young Latino adults reach voting age each month. Over one in five people under the age of 18 in America today is Latino. Over 10 million Latino voters will participate in the 2012 election.

While it is no secret Latino voters are a critical coalition for Democrat electoral success, this year Democrats, and especially President Obama, cannot take their support for granted. Like all voters, Latinos aren’t satisfied with the direction of our country, and nor are they enamored with the job the president is doing. In a poll released last month by the Pew Hispanic Center, only 36% of Latinos are “satisfied with the way things are going” in this country, and less than a majority (49%) of Latinos say they approve of the way the president is handling his job.

Supporters of the president like to point out that his job approval numbers are higher among Latinos (46% approval in Gallup's weekly tracking at the end of December) than they are among the rest of the electorate (42% approval in Gallup's weekly tracking at the end of December). While this is true, it is not the entire story. Obama's erosion in job approval among Hispanics - from a high point of 85% in April/May 2009 to 46% - is greater than any other demographic group.

Among the battleground states in this year’s presidential election there are four states where this changing Latino demographic is most evident – Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico. Last fall Resurgent Republic surveyed the Latino communities in three of these states and found some glaring vulnerabilities for the president. 

The survey showed that Obama is getting less support on a generic ballot test than he did three years ago against John McCain in all three states. In addition, the Democrat lock on Latino partisan affiliation in these states is giving way to a growing Independent block – including 40% of Florida Latino voters, over a third (34%) of Colorado Latino voters, and a quarter (24%) of New Mexico Latino voters. Among these Independents, no more than a quarter in each state feel that Obama has delivered on his campaign promises, and more than 60% in each state view Obama’s leadership as weaker than expected.

What’s more telling is this loss of Latino support for Democrats is paired with Republican success. Republicans elected Latinos up and down the ballot in these states a year ago, and three of these states elected Latino Republicans to statewide office – Senator Marco Rubio in Florida, Governor Brian Sandoval of New Mexico, and Governor Suzanna Martinez of New Mexico. In addition, every newly elected Latino in the US House of Representatives following the 2010 election is a Republican. 

The Obama team’s Latino strategy this year will no doubt be one of class warfare and division. They will deceptively attempt to paint Republicans as uncaring and extremist, and will try to divide Republicans on the issue of immigration. But if Team Obama does this, they will be missing the most important point of all – that Latino voters, like all voters, simply want to see leadership and results from this administration on the economy and unemployment. Unemployment is at 11% among the Latino community, and over two points higher than the national average. In the December Pew Hispanic Center study, 95% of Latinos cited the issue of jobs as extremely of very important – higher than any other issue.  

Republicans will compete in every Latino community this year. Republicans may not win a majority of the Latino vote, but again that wouldn’t be the entire story. The harder the president has to fight for the Latino vote means less attention and resources available to campaign elsewhere. It isn’t easy to wage a campaign on so many fronts, especially with the record this president must defend.

 ###

To:          Interested Parties

From:       Rick Wiley

RE:         The Prototypical Swing State

Date:     January 9, 2012

Few states fit the classic definition of a “swing state” in the last decade better than New Hampshire. With fiercely independent and always engaged voters, New Hampshire has assertively swung back and forth several times. In 2002, and on the heels of a narrow win by George W. Bush in 2000, Republicans had a great year. Republicans came out of the election with a sweep of federal offices, a new Republican governor after three terms of Democrat leadership, and the largest gains for Republicans in the state legislature in decades. The state became tougher for Republicans in 2004 and swung violently for the Democrats in 2006. Both incumbent Republican US House members were defeated and Democrats flipped both chambers in the state legislature, giving Democrats control of both the Governor’s office and state legislature for the first time in a century. 

In December 2006 the keynote speaker at the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s victory celebration just happened to be then Junior Senator from Illinois fresh from announcing his consideration to make a run at the White House. This was Barack Obama’s first visit to the Granite State after announcing his White House speculations, and he told 1,500 cheering party activists “I’m here to bask in the glow” of the work they had done in the election a month earlier. That “glow” continued for an additional two years beyond this visit when in 2008 the Democrats retained their control of state government, a Republican US Senator was defeated, and Barack Obama cruised to a 10-point victory on his way to the White House.  

It’s a little ironic President Obama would then preside over the next seismic swing, this time against his party. In the first election on his watch the voters of New Hampshire doused his “glow” with a bucket of cold water. Last November Republicans won back both US House Seats, regained huge majorities in both chambers of the state legislature with well over 100 legislative seats switching hands, and retained a hotly contested open US Senate seat. What the Obama team has to now contemplate is whether the 2010 swing is over and ready to swing back in favor of his party, or whether New Hampshire is still moving against the President. Unfortunately for the President every measurement seems to suggest the latter.

A University of New Hampshire/WMUR Granite State Poll in February 2009 measured Obama’s job approval ratings at 66% - over three times higher than his 21% disapproval. The President’s approval then immediately began to slide, dropping 11 points to 55% by October 2009, and another 9 points to 46% by September 2010. The news hasn’t improved since the 2010 election, with UNH /WMUR showing Obama dropping to 44% in April 2011, and 41% last October. An NBC News/Marist poll last week showed him at an abysmally low 40%. Young voters and Independent voters – both critical to Obama’s 2008 coalition – are lower still, with only 36% and 35% respectively approving of the job he’s doing (from the October UNH/WMUR survey). Obama won young voters and Independents by 20+ points in 2008.

Just as alarming for the President’s campaign team is another UNH study from November revealing  that voter concern in New Hampshire over the economy – both nationally and at home - continues to grow. According to this study, “pessimism about the national economy among Granite Staters is at its highest levels in more than two years”, and 47% of adults surveyed say their household’s financial position is worse off than it was just one year ago. The President’s team now admits he “owns the economy”, forcing him to address these economic concerns with New Hampshire voters before they allow him to own the economy for another four years.  

Although New Hampshire remains an independent state, voter registration statistics also show voters’ moods trending the wrong way for the President. Democrats have lost the advantage in voter registration they enjoyed over Republicans in 2008. Their 2,000 voter advantage has moved to an 8,500 Republican advantage today. Since the 2010 election, new Republican registrations are outnumbering Democrats by 5 points.

Democrats may argue Democratic Governor John Lynch’s reelection in 2010 is proof a Democrat can survive a Republican swing in New Hampshire, and the President may similarly be able to survive in 2012. But John Lynch had one thing Barack Obama does not have, positive job approval. Just over a month before the 2010 election UNH/WMUR measured Lynch’s job approval at 58% to 28%. Lynch’s 30 point advantage is far better than Obama’s current 9 point deficit. Even with the 30 point advantage, Lynch only received 52% of the vote on Election Day.

Republicans go to the polls tomorrow to help decide who will face Obama on the ballot in November. Obama has eleven months to state his case to New Hampshire voters, but the evidence suggests Republicans are strongly on the up-swing, and Obama and the Democrats continue to flounder.

###

To:        Interested Parties

From:    Rick Wiley

RE:        Obama’s Hawkeye Hang-up

Date:     January 2, 2012

Political observers like to say Iowans have a “love affair” with Barack Obama, but four years after Iowa voters launched Obama to the presidency, the spark is gone. Iowa simply isn’t the same state it was for Obama and Chicago is working on overdrive to repair it.

Three years after his 10-point win over John McCain, the President’s promises of hope and change have been replaced with a record of failed leadership and policies that have made the economy worse. Three years after promising to create jobs, over 17,000 Iowans have lost theirs. After three years Obama looks more like a typical politician than a messiah. And as a result, public opinion toward Obama in Iowa has turned decidedly negative.   

• In April 2009, after three months in office the Des Moines Register measured Obama’s job approval at 64% - double the 29% who disapproved. However, an NBC News/Marist poll in late November found only 43% of Iowa voters approved of the job the President is doing – a drop of one third.
• In April 2009, the Des Moines Register also found a minority (49%) of voters believed the country was on the wrong track. In October however, NBC News/Marist found nearly seven in ten (68%) Iowa voters felt the country was on the wrong track – an increase of 20 points since 2009.
• The President’s signature achievement – Obamacare – has proven to be as popular as a colonoscopy, with 60% of Iowa voters disapproving of the President’s handling of healthcare (measured in February by the Des Moines Register), and a majority (51%) of Iowa voters supporting repeal of the Obamacare law (measured in 2010 General Election exit polling).

In the same time frame, the Republican Party has surged. That resurgence was seen at the ballot box in 2010, and is easy to spot in voter registration trends.

• Republican voter enthusiasm soared in 2010 and GOP candidates were successful up and down the ballot. In November 2010 Republicans took the Governor’s office, the State House of Representatives, and several other statewide offices out of Democrat hands.  
• The GOP has reversed the Democrat gains in voter registration that were so important to Obama’s 2008 successes. The Democrat voter registration advantage has been cut by 62% since 2008 - from roughly 111k then to 42k today.   More significantly, new Republican voter registration rates are on the rise while new Democrat registration rates are plummeting.

In 2012, Obama must face this new political reality in Iowa – not the love affair from 2008. The December Iowa Hawkeye poll says it all with Obama trailing his potential opponents who are fighting it out in the Republican Primary.

Given how critical Iowa is to Obama’s reelection chances with Chicago listing the state on a key path to 270 it’s a good thing Obama is putting some effort into Iowa – he has a lot to make up for.

 ###

From:    Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director

RE:          The Jewish Vote in 2012

Date:     12/16/2011

While Independents will cast the deciding vote in next year’s Presidential Election, it will be the support that Barack Obama receives from traditional Democrat constituencies that will determine how many Independents he needs in order to win.   Not only must these constituencies supply him with votes, they must also provide the foot soldiers and financial resources to fuel his campaign.

One such constituency that overwhelmingly supported Obama in 2008 was Jewish Americans.  In 2008, 78% of Jewish voters supported the President, up from the 74% who supported John Kerry in 2004.   Early in his Presidency the President enjoyed job approval ratings from Jewish voters in the low-80’s.

Between January 2009 and September 2011 however his approval in the Jewish community dropped by nearly 30 points.  An annual survey of Jewish opinion by the American Jewish Council, also from September, reported the President’s job approval even lower, at only 45% among Jewish Americans.

The reasons for this decline have been well documented, from the President’s assertions on Israel’s pre-1967 borders; to the President’s on-again, off-again opposition to new sanctions against Iran; to careless comments by the President and members of his administration about Israel and its leaders.   What’s less documented however is how this decline in support could impact the President’s candidacy in critical swing states in the Electoral College.  

Based on turnout estimates for 2012 and historical voting strength of Jewish voters as measured in exit polling, as many as 450,000 Jewish voters will cast a ballot in Florida.   Between 200,000 -250,000 Jewish voters will go to the polls in Pennsylvania, over 100,000 will do so in Ohio and Michigan, over 50,000 in Virginia and North Carolina, and nearly 50,000 in Nevada.   Even if the President does better at the polls next year than his current job approval ratings it is highly unlikely that he will return to his 2008 levels.  No losses among voters in any of these states can be considered trivial.  North Carolina was carried by only 14,000 votes in 2008, and no one can forget how close Florida was in 2000. 

Defenders of the President suggest that the current decline in support among Jewish voters is not significant because the President’s support has declined across the board, and that the Jewish decline is no greater than the decline he has seen among other voter groups.  That logic, however, fails to recognize the simple fact that as his support falls elsewhere, his margins within these traditional Democrat constituencies become even more important to him at the ballot box.  The Democrat loss in the special election in Jewish-heavy New York 9 is a perfect example of what happens when you lose the support of your base. Without a solid base of support he cannot offset his loses within crucial swing-voter groups. 

###

To:          Interested Parties

From:       Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director

RE:          Arizona in play?  Really?

Date:       12/9/2011

The Obama campaign confidently talks of widening the 2012 battleground map into traditionally Republican states they failed to carry in 2008. At the top of their list is Arizona, a state that Obama lost by 8.5 percent in 2008 and has only favored a Democrat once in a Presidential election since 1948 – Bill Clinton won there in 1996 with less than 47% of the vote. The rationale, they say, is demographic changes favor them, and Obama’s chances will be better without an Arizonan like John McCain also on the ballot.

Recent polling from PPP should throw a little cold water on the Obama campaign’s enthusiasm. In a survey conducted last month, Obama only managed a dismal 41% job approval rating. As is the case in many states, Obama’s numbers today represent a significant slide since earlier this year. In May, PPP found voters in Arizona disapproved of Obama’s job performance by a 4 point margin (46% approve, 50% disapprove). Today that margin stands at 13 points (41% approve, 54% disapprove) among all voters, and a whopping 22 points (35% approve, 57% disapprove) among Independent voters. This downward momentum doesn’t suggest Obama is in a position to improve on his 2008 performance there.

There is also little to suggest Arizona itself is becoming more hospitable to other Democrat candidates. Just last year Republicans netted two US House seats, John McCain was easily reelected to the US Senate, and Republicans added to their majorities in the state legislature. Today Republicans hold every statewide partisan office and hold two-to-one majorities in both chambers of the legislature. Nothing here screams “purple state”.

The 2010 elections also dented the conventional wisdom that the growth in the Hispanic population in the Southwest would make it harder for Republican candidates to be successful there. Republican candidates clearly were successful in the Southwest in 2010, and Arizona is now flanked by two states with strong Hispanic Republicans at the helm – Governor Susana Martinez in New Mexico, and Governor Brian Sandoval in Nevada.

Perhaps the most important signal the state is trending positively for Republicans can be seen in voter registration statistics. The GOP registration advantage which had dipped from 160,000 in 2006 to 90,000 in 2009 has surged since 2010. Republicans now outnumber Democrats by over 150,000 among active voters statewide. Taken together with his poor marks among Independent voters it becomes hard to mathematically find enough voters for Obama to win, even if all Democrats eventually hold their noses and vote for him.

If the Obama campaign wants to spend millions in a state he lost in 2008, we welcome that strategy because it means he won’t be spending it in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida where he won in 2008 and is currently under water in the polls. Team Obama may spin they are on offense but some advice for them would be to double-down on defense or the President will have plenty of time to vacation in sunny Arizona after the election.

The swing state with Obama’s widest margin of victory is Michigan - and on Wednesday that’s where our Republican candidates will be.  At 8:00pm (EST) at Oakland University in Rochester they’ll participate in a Michigan Republican Party-sponsored debate where they’ll share their solutions for getting the country’s economy in order and Americans back to work.

It’s no secret Michigan has been hit especially hard during the economic downturn.  Over half a million Michiganders are out of work.  Unemployment in Michigan remains over 11% - the third highest state in the country behind only Nevada and California and like everywhere, jobs and the economy are the top issues. 

Last month, Obama visited Michigan for the 9^th time, this time touting his $80 billion bailout for GM & Chrysler and the recent trade deal with South Korea (a deal Republicans had been pressing him for since he took office).   The frequency of his visits suggests he knows how important Michigan is electorally.  But Obama’s problem is he must convince Michigan voters he not only likes to visit, but his priorities have been correct, and he’s providing the policies and leadership necessary to help states like Michigan recover. 

 Polling suggests Michigan voters aren’t convinced.

An October survey by EPIC/MRA shows only 14% of Michigan voters believe the country is going in the right direction.  Conversely, the vast majority see the country going the wrong way.  Seven in ten voters (71%) say things have “pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track”.  In May of Obama’s first year in office the state was almost evenly split on this same question.  

When asked about Obama himself, only 38% of voters gave the President a positive rating for the job he’s doing.  That’s an embarrassingly low number for someone who carried the state with 57% of the vote just three years ago.

Although Michigan has supported the Democrat in the last five Presidential elections, it is far from a typical liberal blue-state.   Michigan (Macomb County, specifically) has long been referred to as the unofficial home of the ‘Reagan Democrat’.   Michigan has bucked the Democrat establishment before, and last year its voters decided it was time to rid the state of failed Democrat leadership.  Voters gave Republicans a virtual sweep of state office by electing Governor Rick Snyder, Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, Attorney General Bill Schuette, Secretary of State Ruth Johnson, a super-majority in the State Senate and a new majority in the State House.   Equally as impressive as the size of the victory was where it occurred, with Republicans picking off legislative districts and local races across the state, including in traditionally Democrat territory around Detroit.   Governor Snyder carried all but 4 of Michigan’s 83 counties and won with the largest victory margin for a Republican in 12 years. 

It’s against this backdrop our Republican candidates will debate on Wednesday.   One thing beyond debate is Michigan voters will see a stage full of candidates better suited to lead than Barack Obama.  Michigan decided to replace a Democrat chief executive with a Republican in Lansing last year, and given the path it’s on, it seems reasonable to think Michigan will decide to do the same for Washington next year.

I could also mention the USA Today/Gallup swing state survey I mentioned earlier also shows a large enthusiasm advantage for Republicans in swing states, but that would be piling on.

To:           Interested Parties
From:      Rick Wiley
RE:          Obama’s Real Problem
Date:       October 6, 2011

The Obama campaign is running out of ways to win in 2012. As President Obama admitted earlier this week, Americans aren’t better off now than they were four years ago and the voters are blaming Obama. Just yesterday it was revealed that 70% of Americans believe President Obama has hurt the economy. Today, 40% of Americans “strongly” disapprove of how the President his handling his job – the highest disapproval rating of his presidency.

While Team Obama will shrug at national top-line worries, looking deeper doesn’t look any better.

We all know Republicans aren’t buying what he’s selling and Obama’s chronically low approval ratings suggest Independent voters aren’t likely to bail him out next year. The only option left for Obama is to run a campaign to turn out his Democratic base. Forget for a moment that battleground states like Ohio, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia aren’t exactly “dominated” by base-Democrat voters.  The fundamental problem for Obama is simply a base election requires the willing participation of said “base.”  Unfortunately for him, all the evidence today shows he can take none of that for granted. 

It’s been well-reported and backed up with polling that many core constituencies within the Democrat base are less than happy with the job the President is doing.  

• African American and Hispanic voters, like all voters, wonder why Obama hasn’t done more to address the unemployment that has hit them disproportionately hard, and criticism from their leaders is growing louder and angrier. 

• Jewish voters aren’t enamored with Obama’s policies toward Israel, and just recently repaid Obama by helping to elect Republican Bob Turner in a solidly Democratic and Jewish New York City Congressional district. 

• And young voters, who supported the President by historic margins and provided him with most of the foot soldiers for his 2008 campaign, are realizing they’re the biggest losers in today’s economy.  Not only are they unable to find good jobs, they realize their generation will have to pick up most of the tab for Obama’s spending spree.

The Obama campaign will do its best to vilify Republican candidates in an attempt to fire up the Democratic base that isn’t overwhelmingly excited about Obama himself. But happiness and motivation are two different things.  A lack of motivation is contagious, can permeate all parts of a campaign and is much harder to correct. 

In a recent survey, USA Today/Gallup asked the following to voters about the upcoming election: “Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting, or less enthusiastic?”  Nearly 58% of Republicans responded they were more enthusiastic compared to previous elections.  It’s important to point out this follows on the heels of an election in 2010 in which Republican enthusiasm was already at historic levels. 

Democrats on the other hand look very different.  Only 45% of Democrats responded they were more enthusiastic compared to previous elections, and 44% responded they were less so.  The same question in the fall of 2008 showed 73% of Democrats as more enthusiastic versus 15% less enthusiastic.  This means the whopping 58 point “more vs. less enthusiastic” advantage in the Democratic base Obama enjoyed in 2008 has evaporated to just one point today. 

Another ABC News poll shows just 55% of Democrats believe President Obama will be reelected while 83% of Republicans believe they will elect a Republican to the White House next year.

This overall malaise hurts Obama in more ways than one.  First, it’s hard to imagine a turnout dynamic like 2008 repeating itself, especially among the new 2008 voters who are still waiting for Obama’s campaign promises to be fulfilled.  Second, it hurts fundraising and his bottom line; and this week Obama’s team began lowering expectations for their quarterly fundraising haul.  The real body-blow, however, will be felt in his phone banks, in his door-to-door canvasing, in social media and in all other parts of the campaign that are dependent upon the time, sweat, and energy of volunteers.  

Nothing is more important to a campaign than people who are willing to volunteer their time and do more than cast a ballot.   A paid canvasser isn’t as persuasive as a neighbor.  A recorded phone call isn’t as good as a live call from someone who shares your concerns.  And emails or tweets blasted to thousands of people aren’t as genuine as one from a friend.  Right now the enthusiasm continues to be on the Republican side, and Obama is running out of time to “change” that trend.

Text UNITE to 91919 to join the GOP Mobile Army and get the latest information on the 2012 race.

Perhaps the Chairwoman is right.  Perhaps Chuck Schumer saw the handwriting on the wall in 1998 and calculated that it was safer to abandon this “very difficult” district (that he won with 75% of the vote) for the safer bet of a statewide US Senate race.  Perhaps the stress of holding a district that he won by an average of 35 points (when opposed) was what drove Anthony Weiner to stray from the straight-and-narrow.   How could you not have nightmares about the 29% that George W Bush hung on Al Gore there in 2000?

Seriously?   Perhaps she is wrong.

Here are the facts:

• The district represents territory that hasn’t sent a Republican to Congress since the 1920s.
• Since the current district was drawn in 2002 no statewide Republican candidate has carried it except for George Pataki.
• The closest that any Republican had gotten against former Rep. Anthony Weiner was 20 points, and that was Bob Turner during the 2010 GOP landslide that netted six Congressional seats for Republicans across the state.
• The 3.1:1 Democrat registration advantage ranks it among the top 20% of Congressional Districts nationally with the greatest Dem-to-Rep partisan advantage.
• Obama’s 2008 victory margin in the district ranks it among the top 25% of Congressional Districts nationally with the greatest Obama margin.

Or perhaps the Chairwoman was just speaking to Gregory Meeks and Edolphus Towns who represent adjacent Congressional Districts that Obama carried by an average of 80 points.  Perhaps they don’t have to start reserving television time just yet.  But the Chairwoman’s dismissive comments should be a little disheartening to other Democrats who are stuck in districts that Obama didn’t win by 11 points or more the last time around.

TO:                      Interested Parties
FROM:                Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director
DATE:                 9/7/11
RE:                      A Long, Hot Summer

It was a long, hot summer for President Obama, indeed.

Consumer confidence at its lowest point since 2009; a downgrade to the country’s credit rating; volatile markets; zero job growth in August... more than enough reasons to need a vacation, right?.  After the President’s poorly-received, taxpayer-funded, campaign bus tour of the Midwest, the heat on President Obama was so great that Martha’s Vineyard must have been a tempting destination. (According to a recent survey by Rasmussen Reports, Obama was one of only a third of Americans who took a vacation at all this summer.)  Now that the summer is all but over, it might be helpful to point out to the Obama campaign what the damage another few months of failed leadership has inflicted.

Nationally, according to Gallup’s weekly tracking, Obama ended August with only 40% approving of the job he is doing – matching the lowest weekly approval of his Presidency.  His job approval among Hispanics, younger voters (age 18-29), and women also matched their lowest levels of his Presidency, and barely a third (35%) of Independents give him a passing grade.   Obama’s +8 approval margin at the end of May (50% approve, 42% disapprove) has turned into a -13 disapproval rate at the end of August (40% approve, 53% disapprove) resulting in a slide of 21 points.

The picture is just as bleak in critical presidential battleground states where President Obama’s approval ratings were already in dangerous territory before the summer, and have seen similar slides since then.

• In Michigan, between May 11^th and August 16^th, Obama’s approval margin slid 20 points from a -1 margin in May to a -21 margin in August.
• In Florida, the President’s approval margin slid 15 points from +8 in May to -7 in August.
• In North Carolina, the President’s approval margin slid 13 points from +5 in May to -8 in mid-July.
• In Pennsylvania, the President’s approval margin slid 11 points from even in May to -11 at the end of July.
• In Ohio, the President’s approval margin slid 8 points between May and July, falling from +4 to -4.

To make matters worse, yesterday’s Politico reported that only 26% of voters in their most recent Battleground Poll said they would “definitely” vote for Obama next year.  If the Obama campaign isn’t careful, this long hot summer could turn into a long cold winter.   Fortunately, there will be plenty of warm places for the President to take vacations when that time comes.

To:            Interested Parties
From:       Rick Wiley
Date:        August 15, 2011
RE:           Breaking Down The President's Taxpayer-Funded Debt-End Tour

Just two days after Republicans made the case against Barack Obama at the Iowa Straw Poll, it’s an incredible coincidence the President is rolling through Iowa today on his taxpayer-funded bus tour. Considering Obama’s approval has now fallen below 40% nationally and his week of bad headlines including Democrats questioning his leadership on the economy, it’s really no surprise. After all, as one of the critical Midwestern battlegrounds the President must focus on for his re-election campaign, Iowa has become less-than-hospitable turf for the President since he won the state by 9 points three years ago.

On the heels of the drubbing Democrats took in Iowa in 2010, new polling confirms Iowa will continue to be an uphill climb for Obama.  A new poll out last week from The Tarrance Group and commissioned by American Action Network shows only 42% of Iowan’s approve of the job the President is doing.  In contrast, 52% disapprove, with 46% strongly disapproving.  Read that again, 46% of the voters strongly disapprove compared with only 42% of voters who admit any approval whatsoever.  Among Independents his standing is much worse with his disapproval numbers nearly doubling his approval numbers (32% approve, 61% disapprove).  These numbers should worry any politician.

The trip isn’t confined to Iowa though, as it starts in Minnesota and ends in his (and my) home state of Illinois.  Looking ahead to next year, Minnesota won’t exactly be a “gimme,” as evidenced by the gains made by Republicans in 2010 and Illinoisans didn’t send Mark Kirk to the U.S. Senate and a new crop of Republicans to Congress in 2010 because they thought it would help their favorite son.

More importantly, before his Midwest swing can focus on political rehabilitation, the President and his team will have to confront the damage that has been inflicted on working Americans over the last three years.  This trip will bring Obama face-to-face with the nearly 200,000 workers in Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois who have lost their job since he took office.  In Illinois, he may be confronted by one of the families that lost their home in a state that ranks among the top 10 in the country in foreclosures.  In Iowa, one in every eight people he meets will be a recipient of federal food stamps.  And in Minnesota, he may need to answer why he’s allowed every person’s national debt burden to grow by $12,000 since he took office. 

In his words during his last campaign stop in Michigan last week he urged Congress to stay in their districts to hear from their constituents.  Let’s hope he heeds those words and hears from his constituents as he barrels through the Midwest this week.  Maybe he will notice how much it takes to fill up the gas tank on his campaign bus these days. Fortunately for him he has taxpayers footing the bill on that one too.

President Barack Obama, our 44^th President, celebrates his 50^th birthday next week.  As the President opens his cards and unwraps his gifts, his campaign should take note of his unsettling approval numbers.  According to Pollster.com’s national polling average, only 44% of the country approves of his overall job performance, while over 50% disapproves.

SURPRISE!!! (cue the kazoos, party hats, and confetti here)

If that isn’t enough to ruin the party, then perhaps a look at the President’s current standing in important battleground states in the country’s Heartland and Southeast will provide the proverbial floater in the punchbowl.

The Heartland

Indiana, Iowa, and Ohio – three states former President George W. Bush carried in 2004 and President Obama carried in 2008 - represent 35 Electoral Votes in the nation’s heartland that President Obama must defend.

In June the New York Times reported Obama’s advisors had all but written off Indiana, believing the state “is out of reach.”  This is a wise decision given Obama won the state by less than one point in 2008 and no statewide Democrat candidate in 2010 managed to get above 40%.

In Iowa, where Obama defeated John McCain by nearly 10 points, polling in June by Mason Dixon Polling and Research shows Obama trailing one potential GOP opponent by three points, and leading another potential opponent by only one point.   Momentum at the ballot box swung back to Republicans in 2010, and the Democrat voter registration edge that helped Obama in November 2008 has shrunk from 111,000 to roughly 35,000 today.

In Ohio, the biggest electoral prize of the three, a survey released by Quinnipiac last week shows only 46% of Ohio voters approve of Obama’s handling of his job as President, and only 38% of Ohio voters approve of Obama’s handling of the economy.  In the same survey, only 46% of all voters and 40% of Independents said Obama deserved to be reelected.   Just last fall Republicans swept all statewide offices and won 13 of 18 US House races.

The Southeast

In the Southeast Obama must try to defend 57 Electoral Votes in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. 

Obama carried Virginia comfortably by 6 points in 2008 but since then the state has been consistently red.  A June Quinnipiac survey showed Obama struggling to gain any edge, with voters evenly divided 48%-48% on whether they approve of the job Obama is doing, and 47%-47% on whether Obama deserves to be re-elected.    Independent voters – a group Obama won in Virginia in 2008 - were decidedly against the President, with only 41% approving of the way he is handling his job, and only 38% saying he deserves to be reelected.    

In North Carolina - a state Obama won by only 14,177 votes - a pair of recent polls also point to trouble.  A survey released in July by Public Policy Polling (an unapologetically Democrat firm) showed the President’s job approval rating at 45%, with a majority (51%) disapproving of his job performance.  Independent voters disapproved of Obama by a whopping 26 points in the survey, with only 36% approving and 62% disapproving.  Virtually identical findings were reported by a Civitas survey in July, with Obama’s approval ratings upside-down by 8 points among all voters (44% - 52%) and upside-down by 27 points among Independent voters (33% - 60%.)

Lastly, the perennial battleground of Florida provided some of the worst polling news for Obama in July.  A Sunshine State News Poll showed only 38% of likely voters in Florida approve of the job the President has done.  While suffering from the fifth highest state unemployment rate in the country, only 14% of voters surveyed felt the economy had improved in the last year and 56% said it has gotten worse.  The President only won Florida by 3 points in 2008 and therefore has little room for error.

The precarious situation for President Obama in these states mirrors his standing in battleground states elsewhere in the country.  The President should have more than enough to wish for when he blows out his candles next week.