Political

Memorandum

To:          Interested Parties

From:       Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director

RE:          Arizona in play?  Really?

Date:       12/9/2011

The Obama campaign confidently talks of widening the 2012 battleground map into traditionally Republican states they failed to carry in 2008. At the top of their list is Arizona, a state that Obama lost by 8.5 percent in 2008 and has only favored a Democrat once in a Presidential election since 1948 – Bill Clinton won there in 1996 with less than 47% of the vote. The rationale, they say, is demographic changes favor them, and Obama’s chances will be better without an Arizonan like John McCain also on the ballot.

Recent polling from PPP should throw a little cold water on the Obama campaign’s enthusiasm. In a survey conducted last month, Obama only managed a dismal 41% job approval rating. As is the case in many states, Obama’s numbers today represent a significant slide since earlier this year. In May, PPP found voters in Arizona disapproved of Obama’s job performance by a 4 point margin (46% approve, 50% disapprove). Today that margin stands at 13 points (41% approve, 54% disapprove) among all voters, and a whopping 22 points (35% approve, 57% disapprove) among Independent voters. This downward momentum doesn’t suggest Obama is in a position to improve on his 2008 performance there.

There is also little to suggest Arizona itself is becoming more hospitable to other Democrat candidates. Just last year Republicans netted two US House seats, John McCain was easily reelected to the US Senate, and Republicans added to their majorities in the state legislature. Today Republicans hold every statewide partisan office and hold two-to-one majorities in both chambers of the legislature. Nothing here screams “purple state”.

The 2010 elections also dented the conventional wisdom that the growth in the Hispanic population in the Southwest would make it harder for Republican candidates to be successful there. Republican candidates clearly were successful in the Southwest in 2010, and Arizona is now flanked by two states with strong Hispanic Republicans at the helm – Governor Susana Martinez in New Mexico, and Governor Brian Sandoval in Nevada.

Perhaps the most important signal the state is trending positively for Republicans can be seen in voter registration statistics. The GOP registration advantage which had dipped from 160,000 in 2006 to 90,000 in 2009 has surged since 2010. Republicans now outnumber Democrats by over 150,000 among active voters statewide. Taken together with his poor marks among Independent voters it becomes hard to mathematically find enough voters for Obama to win, even if all Democrats eventually hold their noses and vote for him.

If the Obama campaign wants to spend millions in a state he lost in 2008, we welcome that strategy because it means he won’t be spending it in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida where he won in 2008 and is currently under water in the polls. Team Obama may spin they are on offense but some advice for them would be to double-down on defense or the President will have plenty of time to vacation in sunny Arizona after the election.