Political

Memorandum

To:          Interested Parties

From:    Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director

RE:          Greek Columns?  Remember That?

Date:     February 7, 2012

Remember the 2008 Democratic National Convention? Obama gave his acceptance speech on a stage bigger than even Joe Biden can exaggerate, flanked by gigantic Greek columns, and greeted by an audience reception reminiscent of young high school girls at a 1960’s Beatles concert. Democrats had chosen Denver as their convention site in support of a “Western strategy” to pick off electoral votes in traditional GOP states in the Mountain West and Southwest. To give credit where credit is due, Obama delivered a great speech, and the Democrats were successful at flipping Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico into Barack Obama’s column. But that speech is also a perfect reminder of what typifies the Obama presidency – grandiose promises that sound great when spoken and ultimately ring hollow after providing no results. 

As Obama continues to struggle elsewhere he is once again confronted with the need to follow a Western strategy. He needs states in the West to offset potential losses in Rust Belt states and Southeastern states. But states like Colorado aren’t as friendly as they were four years ago, and it’s hard to find anything that doesn’t foretell a weaker position for President Obama this year.

Let’s first look at jobs. You could fill Sports Authority Field at Mile High (the venue for Obama’s 2008 speech) more than two and a half times with the number of Coloradans that are currently out of work. Over 62,000 Coloradans have lost their job on his watch, and the total number of persons without work (based on preliminary estimates for December) is greater than Obama’s margin of victory in 2008.

Next let’s look at job performance. Opinion of the president’s job performance is far below what it was when he entered office. PPP measured his job approval at 45% in December, far below the 54% of the vote with which Obama was elected. Gallup’s approval average for 2011 was a paltry 40%, which is the lowest of the three Western states that Obama picked up in 2008, and 12 points under the average approval they measured in 2009. Two-thirds (67%) of Colorado’s Hispanic independent voters, said Obama’s leadership has been weaker than expected and 61% said he’s failed to deliver on his promises (Resurgent Republic, Sept 2011).

Most importantly Colorado is still, at the end of the day, a GOP-leaning state. Obama was only the second Democrat to win Colorado in a presidential election in 40 years (Bill Clinton barely won it in 1992, only to lose it in 1996). Republicans had a strong year in 2010, and even after the Democrats strong voter registration push in 2008, Republicans still maintain a partisan registration advantage, and that advantage is growing.  

Colorado saw its share of comebacks last year, but unfortunately Obama isn’t wearing number 15.  

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