Political

Memorandum

To:        Interested Parties

From:    Rick Wiley

RE:        Obama’s Hawkeye Hang-up

Date:     January 2, 2012

Political observers like to say Iowans have a “love affair” with Barack Obama, but four years after Iowa voters launched Obama to the presidency, the spark is gone. Iowa simply isn’t the same state it was for Obama and Chicago is working on overdrive to repair it.

Three years after his 10-point win over John McCain, the President’s promises of hope and change have been replaced with a record of failed leadership and policies that have made the economy worse. Three years after promising to create jobs, over 17,000 Iowans have lost theirs. After three years Obama looks more like a typical politician than a messiah. And as a result, public opinion toward Obama in Iowa has turned decidedly negative.   

• In April 2009, after three months in office the Des Moines Register measured Obama’s job approval at 64% - double the 29% who disapproved. However, an NBC News/Marist poll in late November found only 43% of Iowa voters approved of the job the President is doing – a drop of one third.
• In April 2009, the Des Moines Register also found a minority (49%) of voters believed the country was on the wrong track. In October however, NBC News/Marist found nearly seven in ten (68%) Iowa voters felt the country was on the wrong track – an increase of 20 points since 2009.
• The President’s signature achievement – Obamacare – has proven to be as popular as a colonoscopy, with 60% of Iowa voters disapproving of the President’s handling of healthcare (measured in February by the Des Moines Register), and a majority (51%) of Iowa voters supporting repeal of the Obamacare law (measured in 2010 General Election exit polling).

In the same time frame, the Republican Party has surged. That resurgence was seen at the ballot box in 2010, and is easy to spot in voter registration trends.

• Republican voter enthusiasm soared in 2010 and GOP candidates were successful up and down the ballot. In November 2010 Republicans took the Governor’s office, the State House of Representatives, and several other statewide offices out of Democrat hands.  
• The GOP has reversed the Democrat gains in voter registration that were so important to Obama’s 2008 successes. The Democrat voter registration advantage has been cut by 62% since 2008 - from roughly 111k then to 42k today.   More significantly, new Republican voter registration rates are on the rise while new Democrat registration rates are plummeting.

In 2012, Obama must face this new political reality in Iowa – not the love affair from 2008. The December Iowa Hawkeye poll says it all with Obama trailing his potential opponents who are fighting it out in the Republican Primary.

Given how critical Iowa is to Obama’s reelection chances with Chicago listing the state on a key path to 270 it’s a good thing Obama is putting some effort into Iowa – he has a lot to make up for.

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