Political

MEMO

FROM: Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director

TO: Interested Parties

RE: Republicans’ Wisconsin Momentum

President Obama lands in Wisconsin today, putting the political spotlight back on the presidential race. It’s no surprise that the president’s campaign team has sent him there. Wisconsinites are known for being less-than-hospitable to people from across the border in Illinois, and Obama hasn’t exactly endeared himself over the past three years.

In Wisconsin, as in every state, the November election will be a referendum on the policies of Barack Obama. And Wisconsinites are well aware of the failure of those policies. Obama has failed to deliver the kind of job creation and economic recovery he promised, and those broken promises have irreparably tarnished the ‘hope and change’ brand. Now, he just looks like a typical politician.

The president has made America’s economic recovery slower and more difficult. Now, his plans for regulations and mandates could come at significant cost to Wisconsin. New rules from the EPA will cost Wisconsin jobs and money, while threatening the state’s paper mills. Obamacare will cost Wisconsin an additional $225.9 million from 2014 to 2020, according to the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Studies, and individual insurance premiums will increase on average by 30 percent in the state.

The president’s new budget unveiled Monday does nothing to cut the deficit or slow the growth of debt. In fact, the 2012 budget deficit will exceed the 2011 deficit. He’s broken his promise to cut the deficit in half by the end of his term. Instead of fighting for hardworking taxpayers, he plans to spend more money on reckless programs and more stimulus pet projects. 

All this has taken a toll on his approval rating. In Wisconsin, his job approval averaged 58 percent in his first year, according to Gallup. In 2011, the average was 47 percent. Wisconsin voters are pessimistic about the direction of our country, an indication of the president’s failed leadership. According to a January poll from Marquette Law School, 70 percent of Wisconsinites feels the country has “gotten off on the wrong track.”

While the president has driven down his own numbers, Republicans in Wisconsin have been building momentum. Our share of the electorate has been rising. In 2006, Democrats enjoyed a 5-point voter self-identification advantage, according to Election Day exit polling. In 2008, their advantage was 6 points. By 2010, that advantage was down to 1 point.

As a result, Republicans picked up a U.S. Senate seat, the governorship, both chambers of the state legislature, and two U.S. House seats. When Big Labor and special interests attempted to steal back control of the state senate in a recall election last year, Republicans won. The GOP withstood the recalls and maintained control of the state legislature. The foundation Republicans built in 2010 withstood a major political test in 2011.

That gives us significant momentum heading toward November 2012. With nine months till Election Day, the focus will be on Barack Obama’s failed record. Governor Walker, like the Republican state senators, will be challenged by entrenched special interests. But he and our state senators will be victorious, standing on their record of balancing the budget, empowering schools, saving teachers from layoffs, creating a pro-growth economic environment, and not raising taxes.

Barack Obama, on the other hand, will attempt to run away from his record of higher deficits, more debt, high unemployment, higher healthcare costs, and bigger government. He’ll have to answer to Wisconsin voters about why he burdened them with more regulations, more mandates, and more interference in their lives. He’ll have to explain why he blocked energy development, job growth, and didn’t keep his promises to voters.

Wisconsin is losing faith in Barack Obama. The President should enjoy his cheese curds and Miller High Life on this trip because he isn’t likely to remain the “big cheese” after November.

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