Political

To:          Interested Parties

From:    Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director

RE:          The Jewish Vote in 2012

Date:     12/16/2011

While Independents will cast the deciding vote in next year’s Presidential Election, it will be the support that Barack Obama receives from traditional Democrat constituencies that will determine how many Independents he needs in order to win.   Not only must these constituencies supply him with votes, they must also provide the foot soldiers and financial resources to fuel his campaign.

One such constituency that overwhelmingly supported Obama in 2008 was Jewish Americans.  In 2008, 78% of Jewish voters supported the President, up from the 74% who supported John Kerry in 2004.   Early in his Presidency the President enjoyed job approval ratings from Jewish voters in the low-80’s.

Between January 2009 and September 2011 however his approval in the Jewish community dropped by nearly 30 points.  An annual survey of Jewish opinion by the American Jewish Council, also from September, reported the President’s job approval even lower, at only 45% among Jewish Americans.

The reasons for this decline have been well documented, from the President’s assertions on Israel’s pre-1967 borders; to the President’s on-again, off-again opposition to new sanctions against Iran; to careless comments by the President and members of his administration about Israel and its leaders.   What’s less documented however is how this decline in support could impact the President’s candidacy in critical swing states in the Electoral College.  

Based on turnout estimates for 2012 and historical voting strength of Jewish voters as measured in exit polling, as many as 450,000 Jewish voters will cast a ballot in Florida.   Between 200,000 -250,000 Jewish voters will go to the polls in Pennsylvania, over 100,000 will do so in Ohio and Michigan, over 50,000 in Virginia and North Carolina, and nearly 50,000 in Nevada.   Even if the President does better at the polls next year than his current job approval ratings it is highly unlikely that he will return to his 2008 levels.  No losses among voters in any of these states can be considered trivial.  North Carolina was carried by only 14,000 votes in 2008, and no one can forget how close Florida was in 2000. 

Defenders of the President suggest that the current decline in support among Jewish voters is not significant because the President’s support has declined across the board, and that the Jewish decline is no greater than the decline he has seen among other voter groups.  That logic, however, fails to recognize the simple fact that as his support falls elsewhere, his margins within these traditional Democrat constituencies become even more important to him at the ballot box.  The Democrat loss in the special election in Jewish-heavy New York 9 is a perfect example of what happens when you lose the support of your base. Without a solid base of support he cannot offset his loses within crucial swing-voter groups. 

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