Political

MEMO

FROM: Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director

TO: Interested Parties

RE: The Youth Vote

Obama’s relationship with young voters has gotten complicated.

In 2008, young voters carried Obama to victory, but his campaign shouldn’t expect a repeat performance in 2012. Young Americans have become understandably disenchanted with the president and his policies. As a result, his reelection campaign will suffer. Polling predicts lower turnout and weaker support, and that in turn means fewer votes and volunteers.

ECONOMIC TOLL

Young voters have borne the brunt of the economic downturn. In the difficult Obama economy, jobs are hard to find for those entering the market. The unemployment rate for 20 to 24 year olds is 13.3 percent, a full five percentage points higher than the national average.

In addition, college costs have increased 25 percent since Obama took office, and student debt is at an all time high. And forget about the president’s much-touted loan refinancing program. It saves the average student less than $10/month. That paltry amount won't pay for a pizza for the dorm room in Columbus.

In short, Obama doesn’t have much to offer young voters.

FROM ACTIVE TO APATHETIC

The voters that Obama energized in 2008 are surely looking at his record with disappointment. As they realize he is just a typical politician, their enthusiasm is disappearing.

Rewind to 2007 and those numbers were much higher – 28 percent and 24 percent, respectively.

Disengaged, uninterested voters are unlikely to turn out in November. Since young voters broke decisively for Obama in 2008 (66 percent), Democrats have the most to lose as a result of young voter apathy.

CLOSING THE GAP

In 2008, Democrats enjoyed a 28-point party identification advantage among 18 to 29 year old voters. By last year, that advantage had shrunk to 13 points.

Young voters have been reliably Democratic for nearly two decades, so it’s no surprise Democrats have an advantage. But the shift between 2008 and 2011 is dramatic, and the advantage isn’t what it once was.

Partisan self-identification among 18-29 year olds.
Source: Pew Research

Obama’s approval rating among the same demographic has also fallen sharply. According to Gallup, his job approval among young voters has dropped from 75 percent when he was elected to 51 percent today. This should have Campaign Manager Jim Messina ingesting Red Bull like he's cramming for a final as he spends sleepless nights trying to halt this skid. 

All this suggests Democrats cannot count on the same level of support they received in 2008.

FEWER VOTERS, FEWER VOLUNTEERS

Lower turnout and lower support levels will obviously translate into fewer votes for the president. As a result, Obama is likely to lose states like North Carolina where he won last time by a narrow margin with the help of energized college voters.

More alarming though for Chicago, Obama will lose more than just votes. In 2008, Democrats successfully mobilized droves of student volunteers to staff get-out-the-vote operations. Dissatisfied young voters are much less likely to be eager foot soldiers for the Obama campaign. This year, volunteer recruitment is likely to be a more daunting task. And a loss of volunteers ultimately translates into a loss of even more votes.

The Obama campaign will hit the road in the coming weeks to host “summits” at swing state colleges and universities because Jim Messina insists, “Young Americans are at the foundation of this campaign.” 

From the looks of it, that’s going to be a foundation built upon shifting sands.

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