Political

Memorandum

To:          Interested Parties

From:     Rick Wiley

RE:          What Happens in Vegas…

Date:      February 3, 2012

The economic statistics from Nevada are staggering. The Silver State has the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 12.6%, nearly 82,000 jobs have been lost there since Obama took office and Nevada has the highest rate of property foreclosure for the fifth consecutive year. Let’s toss in the fact that since the president took office, median household incomes have fallen by more than $5000 and you have a recipe for disaster brewing on the Vegas Strip. It is no wonder Obama insults Nevada every time he heads west to vacuum up campaign cash. There is no way the voters can think highly of a president whose policies have inflicted so much financial hardship on one state. 

To be fair, Nevada’s economic problems didn’t begin the day Obama took office. But it’s also fair to remind voters that Obama put himself on the clock three years ago when he promised relief from the economic downturn, and these statistics make it clear he’s failed miserably at delivering on those promises for Nevadans.

As one of the nine battleground states that he flipped in 2008, holding Nevada is critically important to Obama’s electoral vote math. Holding onto Nevada isn’t going to be easy, though.  

• Nevada is hardly a Democrat fortress. Looking at history, Obama was the first Democrat candidate for president to break 50% in Nevada in 40 years. Bill Clinton was the only other Democrat to carry Nevada in that span, winning against a fractured opposition with only 38% and 44% in 1992 and 1996 respectively. 
• Public opinion toward Obama has taken a nose dive. Gallup’s report this week of presidential approval ratings by state shows a steep and steady decline for the president across the country, with Nevada among the states leading the charge. Among the nine states that switched from George Bush to Obama, only Indiana and New Hampshire have lower approval ratings and steeper declines since 2009 than Nevada.
• Obama’s job approval problems exist across all parties. According to PPP data from last year, Obama is upside-down among critical Independents by 11 points. He gets almost no support from Republicans (at 6% approval). And nearly 1 in 5 (17%) of Democrats disapprove of the job he is doing.
• Amid one of the most rapidly changing electorates (only a quarter of Nevada’s population was born there) Republicans are gaining on Democrats in voter registration, and have narrowed the Democrat’s advantage among active voters by over 50% - from over 100,000 in 2008 to under 50,000 today. And while Democrats enjoyed an 8-point advantage among those who voted in 2008, they had only a 2-point advantage among those who voted in 2010.
• To lead the GOP’s momentum, Republicans have strong new leadership in the state, with Governor Brian Sandoval elected in 2010 as Nevada’s first Hispanic governor, newly appointed US Senator Dean Heller, Congressman Joe Heck elected in 2010 in the previously Democrat-held 3^rd Congressional District, and recent Special Election winner Mark Amodei in the 2^nd Congressional District.

It is in this hole, and against a stronger Republican Party, that President Obama begins his 2012 campaign in Nevada. On Saturday, Republicans in Nevada will take another step towards nominating his opponent. Unfortunately, what happens in Vegas will not stay in Vegas, and Obama will have a fight on his hands all the way to November.

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