http://www.gop.com/index.php/chairman_steele/ en Copyright 2012 2012-02-06T23:49:51+00:00 http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/greek_columns_remember_that/ http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/greek_columns_remember_that/#When:23:49:51Z Memorandum To:          Interested Parties From:    Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director RE:          Greek Columns?  Remember That? Date:     February 7, 2012   Remember the 2008 Democratic National Convention? Obama gave his acceptance speech on a stage bigger than even Joe Biden can exaggerate, flanked by gigantic Greek columns, and greeted by an audience reception reminiscent of young high school girls at a 1960’s Beatles concert. Democrats had chosen Denver as their convention site in support of a “Western strategy” to pick off electoral votes in traditional GOP states in the Mountain West and Southwest. To give credit where credit is due, Obama delivered a great speech, and the Democrats were successful at flipping Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico into Barack Obama’s column. But that speech is also a perfect reminder of what typifies the Obama presidency – grandiose promises that sound great when spoken and ultimately ring hollow after providing no results.  As Obama continues to struggle elsewhere he is once again confronted with the need to follow a Western strategy. He needs states in the West to offset potential losses in Rust Belt states and Southeastern states. But states like Colorado aren’t as friendly as they were four years ago, and it’s hard to find anything that doesn’t foretell a weaker position for President Obama this year. Let’s first look at jobs. You could fill Sports Authority Field at Mile High (the venue for Obama’s 2008 speech) more than two and a half times with the number of Coloradans that are currently out of work. Over 62,000 Coloradans have lost their job on his watch, and the total number of persons without work (based on preliminary estimates for December) is greater than Obama’s margin of victory in 2008. Next let’s look at job performance. Opinion of the president’s job performance is far below what it was when he entered office. PPP measured his job approval at 45% in December, far below the 54% of the vote with which Obama was elected. Gallup’s approval average for 2011 was a paltry 40%, which is the lowest of the three Western states that Obama picked up in 2008, and 12 points under the average approval they measured in 2009. Two-thirds (67%) of Colorado’s Hispanic independent voters, said Obama’s leadership has been weaker than expected and 61% said he’s failed to deliver on his promises (Resurgent Republic, Sept 2011). Most importantly Colorado is still, at the end of the day, a GOP-leaning state. Obama was only the second Democrat to win Colorado in a presidential election in 40 years (Bill Clinton barely won it in 1992, only to lose it in 1996). Republicans had a strong year in 2010, and even after the Democrats strong voter registration push in 2008, Republicans still maintain a partisan registration advantage, and that advantage is growing.   Colorado saw its share of comebacks last year, but unfortunately Obama isn’t wearing number 15.   ###   2012-02-06T23:49:51+00:00 http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/what_happens_in_vegas/ http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/what_happens_in_vegas/#When:23:40:02Z Memorandum To:          Interested Parties From:     Rick Wiley RE:          What Happens in Vegas… Date:      February 3, 2012   The economic statistics from Nevada are staggering. The Silver State has the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 12.6%, nearly 82,000 jobs have been lost there since Obama took office and Nevada has the highest rate of property foreclosure for the fifth consecutive year. Let’s toss in the fact that since the president took office, median household incomes have fallen by more than $5000 and you have a recipe for disaster brewing on the Vegas Strip. It is no wonder Obama insults Nevada every time he heads west to vacuum up campaign cash. There is no way the voters can think highly of a president whose policies have inflicted so much financial hardship on one state.  To be fair, Nevada’s economic problems didn’t begin the day Obama took office. But it’s also fair to remind voters that Obama put himself on the clock three years ago when he promised relief from the economic downturn, and these statistics make it clear he’s failed miserably at delivering on those promises for Nevadans. As one of the nine battleground states that he flipped in 2008, holding Nevada is critically important to Obama’s electoral vote math. Holding onto Nevada isn’t going to be easy, though.   Nevada is hardly a Democrat fortress. Looking at history, Obama was the first Democrat candidate for president to break 50% in Nevada in 40 years. Bill Clinton was the only other Democrat to carry Nevada in that span, winning against a fractured opposition with only 38% and 44% in 1992 and 1996 respectively.  Public opinion toward Obama has taken a nose dive. Gallup’s report this week of presidential approval ratings by state shows a steep and steady decline for the president across the country, with Nevada among the states leading the charge. Among the nine states that switched from George Bush to Obama, only Indiana and New Hampshire have lower approval ratings and steeper declines since 2009 than Nevada. Obama’s job approval problems exist across all parties. According to PPP data from last year, Obama is upside-down among critical Independents by 11 points. He gets almost no support from Republicans (at 6% approval). And nearly 1 in 5 (17%) of Democrats disapprove of the job he is doing. Amid one of the most rapidly changing electorates (only a quarter of Nevada’s population was born there) Republicans are gaining on Democrats in voter registration, and have narrowed the Democrat’s advantage among active voters by over 50% - from over 100,000 in 2008 to under 50,000 today. And while Democrats enjoyed an 8-point advantage among those who voted in 2008, they had only a 2-point advantage among those who voted in 2010. To lead the GOP’s momentum, Republicans have strong new leadership in the state, with Governor Brian Sandoval elected in 2010 as Nevada’s first Hispanic governor, newly appointed US Senator Dean Heller, Congressman Joe Heck elected in 2010 in the previously Democrat-held 3rd Congressional District, and recent Special Election winner Mark Amodei in the 2nd Congressional District. It is in this hole, and against a stronger Republican Party, that President Obama begins his 2012 campaign in Nevada. On Saturday, Republicans in Nevada will take another step towards nominating his opponent. Unfortunately, what happens in Vegas will not stay in Vegas, and Obama will have a fight on his hands all the way to November.    ### 2012-02-02T23:40:02+00:00 http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/obamas_rainy_day/ http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/obamas_rainy_day/#When:22:23:33Z Memorandum To:          Interested Parties From:     Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director RE:           Obama’s Rainy Day Date:      January 31, 2012   It’s hard to imagine Florida not being the most contested prize along the path to 270 this year. Their 29 Electoral Vote haul is by far the largest among the states in play. The prototypical battleground state has given their Electoral Votes to the eventual winner of nine of the last ten presidential elections. And with so many other battleground states in the toss-up column this year, President Obama’s chances of winning reelection would amount to a four-cushion bank shot if he comes up short in the Sunshine State. Unfortunately for Obama, Florida isn’t a walk in the park under any circumstances. Each of the last five presidential elections in Florida has been decided by 5 points or less, and three times by 3 points or less. The 537 vote margin of victory for George W. Bush in 2000 was among the closest in modern presidential history (only New Mexico in 2000 and Hawaii in 1960 have been decided by fewer votes). The president himself garnered only 51% of the vote in his 2008 victory over John McCain. He therefore has precious few votes to lose, and there are more than enough opportunities for him to lose them. The challenge of winning in Florida is the diversity of its electorate. Florida was among the fastest growing states between the last two censuses, ranking 2nd in total population growth, and 8th in rate of growth. Florida ranks 1st in the nation in the percentage of the electorate over the age of 65. Florida has the 2nd largest Jewish population in the nation. Florida has the 3rd largest Hispanic population, and ranks 6th among states with the highest Hispanic percentage of population. Florida’s Hispanic population itself is diverse, with the largest Cuban and second largest Puerto Rican populations in the country. This diversity presents a mixed-bag of challenges for the president, and any of these challenges can jeopardize his chances.   While the state population is growing, the Democrat Party’s advantage in partisan registration is shrinking. The Democrat share of overall registration has declined in each of the last 26 months, and since the 2008 election, the Democrat registration advantage has dropped by almost 30% from nearly 700,000 to fewer than 500,000 today.    With the highest voter-participation rate among all age groups, Florida’s over-65 population is right now one of the weakest demographic groups for Obama. The most recent Quinnipiac survey shows a 38% job approval rating for the president among voters over 65.   After three years of a bumbling foreign policy toward Israel and several embarrassing statements made about Israel by his administration, Jewish voters are second-guessing their support of the president in the last election. As a “core” Democrat constituency, Jewish voters are important to Obama’s fundraising and activist base, as well as his electoral coalition.  Florida’s Hispanic voters have been unimpressed by the president. Resurgent Republic’s recent survey of Florida Hispanics showed the president running 11 points behind his 2008 performance. In addition, 56% of Florida’s Hispanic voters said Obama has been a weaker than expected leader, and 60% said his campaign promises remain unfulfilled. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of Cuban voters said it is time to give someone else a chance.    Adding insult to injury, Independent voters, who represent the fastest growing partisan group in Florida, also aren’t buying what Obama is selling. Only 39% of “no-party” voters said they approve of the job Obama is doing in a January Suffolk University poll. The most important change in Florida on Obama’s watch, however, has been the disproportionately high toll the nation’s weak economy has taken. Job loss has hit Florida harder than most states, especially among Hispanic voters and younger voters. Foreclosures are up, property values are down, and barely a quarter of Florida voters think the country is headed in the right direction. The president has to explain to Floridians why he’s placed a higher priority on campaigning than on fixing the economy. Standing in Obama’s way in Florida is a rejuvenated Republican Party. Higher enthusiasm among Republican voters and strong support from Independents resulted in big wins for Republicans in 2010, including sending one of the GOP’s fastest-rising stars, Senator Marco Rubio, to Washington. Higher enthusiasm among Republicans continues to be the norm, with 51% of Republicans surveyed by Quinnipiac this month saying they are more enthusiastic about the upcoming election than they were four years ago (and for their part, only 33% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic). Turnout in this week’s GOP Presidential Preference Primary is expected to be record-setting, and Tampa will host the Republican National Convention later this year.   Close elections are about momentum, and the momentum in Florida is moving in the direction of the Republican Party right now. In spite of its nickname, the Sunshine State looks awfully cloudy for Obama, and may very well rain on his parade in November.      ### 2012-01-30T22:23:33+00:00 http://www.gop.com/index.php?/politicalblog/comments/gop_voter_registration_advantage/ http://www.gop.com/index.php?/politicalblog/comments/gop_voter_registration_advantage/#When:12:46:46Z Memorandum To:        Interested Parties From:    Rick Wiley RE:       GOP Voter Registration Advantage Date:     January 17, 2012   The GOP has the momentum. It’s all in the numbers. The Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary brought out a record number of voters—many voting Republican for the first time in their lives. With over 70 percent of Americans looking for a new direction, voters are turning decidedly to the Republican Party. An analysis of voter registration numbers demonstrates that the promising trend is not isolated only to Iowa and New Hampshire. In every battleground state for which there is relevant registration data available, the GOP has either narrowed the registration gap or increased our lead since 2008. And that’s bad news for Democrats. In Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, the GOP enters 2012 from a stronger position. All are states Team Obama has identified as necessary to their pathway to victory. In all of these states, the net change from 2008 to 2011 (or early 2012 in some cases; see chart below) favors the GOP.  (Note: the other battleground states, Indiana, Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Washington, and Ohio do not report registration in a way that makes such analysis possible.)   STATE 2008 ADVANTAGE 2012 ADVANTAGE NET CHANGE DATE REPORTED Colorado GOP +0.3% GOP +0.5% GOP +0.3 12/1/2011 Florida DEM +5.9% DEM +4.9% GOP +1.0 9/1/2011 Iowa DEM +5.1% DEM +1.5% GOP +3.6 1/3/2012 Nevada DEM +7.7% DEM +7.6% GOP +0.1 10/1/2011 New Hampshire DEM +0.2% GOP +1.1% GOP +1.3 12/15/2011 New Mexico DEM +18.4% DEM +17.4% GOP +1.0 1/31/2011 North Carolina DEM +13.8% DEM +12.5% GOP +1.3 11/26/2011 Pennsylvania DEM +15.4% DEM +13.5% GOP + 1.9 1/2/2011   Furthermore, there are only a handful of states in which the net change from 2008 to today favors Democrats, and all are reliably blue states. Needless to say none of those is on the GOP path to 270 electoral votes. That means the GOP enters 2012 with a stronger position in all remaining states—all battleground states included—as compared to 2008. As enthusiasm during the nominating process continues to favor us, we expect our registration position to continue to improve.   This adds up to trouble for Democrats. Their turnout efforts are already complicated by the fact that there is less enthusiasm on the Democratic side. Many Democrats, while not yet prepared to jump ship, are dispirited enough by Obama’s failed promises that they could likely sit out 2012.  A Gallup poll released this week corroborates the trend observed in the registration data. The number of self-identified Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents is down sharply since 2008, while the number of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents continues to tick upward.  According to Gallup, in 2008, 52 percent of Americans identified as Democrats or Democrat-leaning independents; 40 percent were Republican or Republican-leaning. By the end of 2011, both groups stood at 45 percent. In three years, the 12-point Democrat advantage evaporated entirely. So while 2008 represented a record high for Democrats, 2011 marks the lowest point since Gallup began reporting these figures in 1991. (In 1991 the Democratic figure was 44 percent.) In other words, Democrats have gone from a record high in 2008 to a low-water mark in 2011. As Gallup reports, the 2011 numbers are “similar to 2010, when the Democrats had a 1-point advantage in leaned party identification.” Republicans saw sweeping victories in 2010, and now, as we enter 2012, our numbers look even better. Meanwhile, as the media focus remains on the Republican candidates and their efforts to highlight the failings of President Obama and their respective solutions, Republican appeal should only grow.  There are many ways to quantify the Republican advantage in 2012. Partisan registration and party self-identification data are just two such ways, but they unambiguously point to the fact that the momentum is indeed on the GOP side. ###   2012-01-17T12:46:46+00:00 http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/the_latino_vote/ http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/the_latino_vote/#When:12:52:49Z Memorandum To:         Interested Parties From:      Rick Wiley RE:         The Latino Vote Date:      January 11, 2012   You would have to be living under a rock to not recognize the growing importance of the Latino vote, both today and in elections to come. The facts about demographic change are indisputable. Fifty thousand young Latino adults reach voting age each month. Over one in five people under the age of 18 in America today is Latino. Over 10 million Latino voters will participate in the 2012 election. While it is no secret Latino voters are a critical coalition for Democrat electoral success, this year Democrats, and especially President Obama, cannot take their support for granted. Like all voters, Latinos aren’t satisfied with the direction of our country, and nor are they enamored with the job the president is doing. In a poll released last month by the Pew Hispanic Center, only 36% of Latinos are “satisfied with the way things are going” in this country, and less than a majority (49%) of Latinos say they approve of the way the president is handling his job. Supporters of the president like to point out that his job approval numbers are higher among Latinos (46% approval in Gallup's weekly tracking at the end of December) than they are among the rest of the electorate (42% approval in Gallup's weekly tracking at the end of December). While this is true, it is not the entire story. Obama's erosion in job approval among Hispanics - from a high point of 85% in April/May 2009 to 46% - is greater than any other demographic group. Among the battleground states in this year’s presidential election there are four states where this changing Latino demographic is most evident – Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico. Last fall Resurgent Republic surveyed the Latino communities in three of these states and found some glaring vulnerabilities for the president.  The survey showed that Obama is getting less support on a generic ballot test than he did three years ago against John McCain in all three states. In addition, the Democrat lock on Latino partisan affiliation in these states is giving way to a growing Independent block – including 40% of Florida Latino voters, over a third (34%) of Colorado Latino voters, and a quarter (24%) of New Mexico Latino voters. Among these Independents, no more than a quarter in each state feel that Obama has delivered on his campaign promises, and more than 60% in each state view Obama’s leadership as weaker than expected. What’s more telling is this loss of Latino support for Democrats is paired with Republican success. Republicans elected Latinos up and down the ballot in these states a year ago, and three of these states elected Latino Republicans to statewide office – Senator Marco Rubio in Florida, Governor Brian Sandoval of New Mexico, and Governor Suzanna Martinez of New Mexico. In addition, every newly elected Latino in the US House of Representatives following the 2010 election is a Republican.  The Obama team’s Latino strategy this year will no doubt be one of class warfare and division. They will deceptively attempt to paint Republicans as uncaring and extremist, and will try to divide Republicans on the issue of immigration. But if Team Obama does this, they will be missing the most important point of all – that Latino voters, like all voters, simply want to see leadership and results from this administration on the economy and unemployment. Unemployment is at 11% among the Latino community, and over two points higher than the national average. In the December Pew Hispanic Center study, 95% of Latinos cited the issue of jobs as extremely of very important – higher than any other issue.   Republicans will compete in every Latino community this year. Republicans may not win a majority of the Latino vote, but again that wouldn’t be the entire story. The harder the president has to fight for the Latino vote means less attention and resources available to campaign elsewhere. It isn’t easy to wage a campaign on so many fronts, especially with the record this president must defend.  ### 2012-01-11T12:52:49+00:00 http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/the_prototypical_swing_state/ http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/the_prototypical_swing_state/#When:18:50:46Z Memorandum To:          Interested Parties From:       Rick Wiley RE:         The Prototypical Swing State Date:     January 9, 2012   Few states fit the classic definition of a “swing state” in the last decade better than New Hampshire. With fiercely independent and always engaged voters, New Hampshire has assertively swung back and forth several times. In 2002, and on the heels of a narrow win by George W. Bush in 2000, Republicans had a great year. Republicans came out of the election with a sweep of federal offices, a new Republican governor after three terms of Democrat leadership, and the largest gains for Republicans in the state legislature in decades. The state became tougher for Republicans in 2004 and swung violently for the Democrats in 2006. Both incumbent Republican US House members were defeated and Democrats flipped both chambers in the state legislature, giving Democrats control of both the Governor’s office and state legislature for the first time in a century.  In December 2006 the keynote speaker at the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s victory celebration just happened to be then Junior Senator from Illinois fresh from announcing his consideration to make a run at the White House. This was Barack Obama’s first visit to the Granite State after announcing his White House speculations, and he told 1,500 cheering party activists “I’m here to bask in the glow” of the work they had done in the election a month earlier. That “glow” continued for an additional two years beyond this visit when in 2008 the Democrats retained their control of state government, a Republican US Senator was defeated, and Barack Obama cruised to a 10-point victory on his way to the White House.   It’s a little ironic President Obama would then preside over the next seismic swing, this time against his party. In the first election on his watch the voters of New Hampshire doused his “glow” with a bucket of cold water. Last November Republicans won back both US House Seats, regained huge majorities in both chambers of the state legislature with well over 100 legislative seats switching hands, and retained a hotly contested open US Senate seat. What the Obama team has to now contemplate is whether the 2010 swing is over and ready to swing back in favor of his party, or whether New Hampshire is still moving against the President. Unfortunately for the President every measurement seems to suggest the latter. A University of New Hampshire/WMUR Granite State Poll in February 2009 measured Obama’s job approval ratings at 66% - over three times higher than his 21% disapproval. The President’s approval then immediately began to slide, dropping 11 points to 55% by October 2009, and another 9 points to 46% by September 2010. The news hasn’t improved since the 2010 election, with UNH /WMUR showing Obama dropping to 44% in April 2011, and 41% last October. An NBC News/Marist poll last week showed him at an abysmally low 40%. Young voters and Independent voters – both critical to Obama’s 2008 coalition – are lower still, with only 36% and 35% respectively approving of the job he’s doing (from the October UNH/WMUR survey). Obama won young voters and Independents by 20+ points in 2008. Just as alarming for the President’s campaign team is another UNH study from November revealing  that voter concern in New Hampshire over the economy – both nationally and at home - continues to grow. According to this study, “pessimism about the national economy among Granite Staters is at its highest levels in more than two years”, and 47% of adults surveyed say their household’s financial position is worse off than it was just one year ago. The President’s team now admits he “owns the economy”, forcing him to address these economic concerns with New Hampshire voters before they allow him to own the economy for another four years.   Although New Hampshire remains an independent state, voter registration statistics also show voters’ moods trending the wrong way for the President. Democrats have lost the advantage in voter registration they enjoyed over Republicans in 2008. Their 2,000 voter advantage has moved to an 8,500 Republican advantage today. Since the 2010 election, new Republican registrations are outnumbering Democrats by 5 points. Democrats may argue Democratic Governor John Lynch’s reelection in 2010 is proof a Democrat can survive a Republican swing in New Hampshire, and the President may similarly be able to survive in 2012. But John Lynch had one thing Barack Obama does not have, positive job approval. Just over a month before the 2010 election UNH/WMUR measured Lynch’s job approval at 58% to 28%. Lynch’s 30 point advantage is far better than Obama’s current 9 point deficit. Even with the 30 point advantage, Lynch only received 52% of the vote on Election Day. Republicans go to the polls tomorrow to help decide who will face Obama on the ballot in November. Obama has eleven months to state his case to New Hampshire voters, but the evidence suggests Republicans are strongly on the up-swing, and Obama and the Democrats continue to flounder. ### 2012-01-08T18:50:46+00:00 http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/obamas_hawkeye_hang-up/ http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/obamas_hawkeye_hang-up/#When:13:46:41Z Memorandum To:        Interested Parties From:    Rick Wiley RE:        Obama’s Hawkeye Hang-up Date:     January 2, 2012 Political observers like to say Iowans have a “love affair” with Barack Obama, but four years after Iowa voters launched Obama to the presidency, the spark is gone. Iowa simply isn’t the same state it was for Obama and Chicago is working on overdrive to repair it. Three years after his 10-point win over John McCain, the President’s promises of hope and change have been replaced with a record of failed leadership and policies that have made the economy worse. Three years after promising to create jobs, over 17,000 Iowans have lost theirs. After three years Obama looks more like a typical politician than a messiah. And as a result, public opinion toward Obama in Iowa has turned decidedly negative.    In April 2009, after three months in office the Des Moines Register measured Obama’s job approval at 64% - double the 29% who disapproved. However, an NBC News/Marist poll in late November found only 43% of Iowa voters approved of the job the President is doing – a drop of one third. In April 2009, the Des Moines Register also found a minority (49%) of voters believed the country was on the wrong track. In October however, NBC News/Marist found nearly seven in ten (68%) Iowa voters felt the country was on the wrong track – an increase of 20 points since 2009. The President’s signature achievement – Obamacare – has proven to be as popular as a colonoscopy, with 60% of Iowa voters disapproving of the President’s handling of healthcare (measured in February by the Des Moines Register), and a majority (51%) of Iowa voters supporting repeal of the Obamacare law (measured in 2010 General Election exit polling). In the same time frame, the Republican Party has surged. That resurgence was seen at the ballot box in 2010, and is easy to spot in voter registration trends. Republican voter enthusiasm soared in 2010 and GOP candidates were successful up and down the ballot. In November 2010 Republicans took the Governor’s office, the State House of Representatives, and several other statewide offices out of Democrat hands.   The GOP has reversed the Democrat gains in voter registration that were so important to Obama’s 2008 successes. The Democrat voter registration advantage has been cut by 62% since 2008 - from roughly 111k then to 42k today.   More significantly, new Republican voter registration rates are on the rise while new Democrat registration rates are plummeting. In 2012, Obama must face this new political reality in Iowa – not the love affair from 2008. The December Iowa Hawkeye poll says it all with Obama trailing his potential opponents who are fighting it out in the Republican Primary. Given how critical Iowa is to Obama’s reelection chances with Chicago listing the state on a key path to 270 it’s a good thing Obama is putting some effort into Iowa – he has a lot to make up for.  ### 2012-01-02T13:46:41+00:00 http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/the_jewish_vote_in_2012/ http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/the_jewish_vote_in_2012/#When:17:34:51Z To:          Interested Parties From:    Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director RE:          The Jewish Vote in 2012 Date:     12/16/2011   While Independents will cast the deciding vote in next year’s Presidential Election, it will be the support that Barack Obama receives from traditional Democrat constituencies that will determine how many Independents he needs in order to win.   Not only must these constituencies supply him with votes, they must also provide the foot soldiers and financial resources to fuel his campaign. One such constituency that overwhelmingly supported Obama in 2008 was Jewish Americans.  In 2008, 78% of Jewish voters supported the President, up from the 74% who supported John Kerry in 2004.   Early in his Presidency the President enjoyed job approval ratings from Jewish voters in the low-80’s. Between January 2009 and September 2011 however his approval in the Jewish community dropped by nearly 30 points.  An annual survey of Jewish opinion by the American Jewish Council, also from September, reported the President’s job approval even lower, at only 45% among Jewish Americans. The reasons for this decline have been well documented, from the President’s assertions on Israel’s pre-1967 borders; to the President’s on-again, off-again opposition to new sanctions against Iran; to careless comments by the President and members of his administration about Israel and its leaders.   What’s less documented however is how this decline in support could impact the President’s candidacy in critical swing states in the Electoral College.   Based on turnout estimates for 2012 and historical voting strength of Jewish voters as measured in exit polling, as many as 450,000 Jewish voters will cast a ballot in Florida.   Between 200,000 -250,000 Jewish voters will go to the polls in Pennsylvania, over 100,000 will do so in Ohio and Michigan, over 50,000 in Virginia and North Carolina, and nearly 50,000 in Nevada.   Even if the President does better at the polls next year than his current job approval ratings it is highly unlikely that he will return to his 2008 levels.  No losses among voters in any of these states can be considered trivial.  North Carolina was carried by only 14,000 votes in 2008, and no one can forget how close Florida was in 2000.  Defenders of the President suggest that the current decline in support among Jewish voters is not significant because the President’s support has declined across the board, and that the Jewish decline is no greater than the decline he has seen among other voter groups.  That logic, however, fails to recognize the simple fact that as his support falls elsewhere, his margins within these traditional Democrat constituencies become even more important to him at the ballot box.  The Democrat loss in the special election in Jewish-heavy New York 9 is a perfect example of what happens when you lose the support of your base. Without a solid base of support he cannot offset his loses within crucial swing-voter groups.  ### 2011-12-16T17:34:51+00:00 http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/arizona_in_play_really/ http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/arizona_in_play_really/#When:14:23:49Z Memorandum To:          Interested Parties From:       Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director RE:          Arizona in play?  Really? Date:       12/9/2011 The Obama campaign confidently talks of widening the 2012 battleground map into traditionally Republican states they failed to carry in 2008. At the top of their list is Arizona, a state that Obama lost by 8.5 percent in 2008 and has only favored a Democrat once in a Presidential election since 1948 – Bill Clinton won there in 1996 with less than 47% of the vote. The rationale, they say, is demographic changes favor them, and Obama’s chances will be better without an Arizonan like John McCain also on the ballot. Recent polling from PPP should throw a little cold water on the Obama campaign’s enthusiasm. In a survey conducted last month, Obama only managed a dismal 41% job approval rating. As is the case in many states, Obama’s numbers today represent a significant slide since earlier this year. In May, PPP found voters in Arizona disapproved of Obama’s job performance by a 4 point margin (46% approve, 50% disapprove). Today that margin stands at 13 points (41% approve, 54% disapprove) among all voters, and a whopping 22 points (35% approve, 57% disapprove) among Independent voters. This downward momentum doesn’t suggest Obama is in a position to improve on his 2008 performance there. There is also little to suggest Arizona itself is becoming more hospitable to other Democrat candidates. Just last year Republicans netted two US House seats, John McCain was easily reelected to the US Senate, and Republicans added to their majorities in the state legislature. Today Republicans hold every statewide partisan office and hold two-to-one majorities in both chambers of the legislature. Nothing here screams “purple state”. The 2010 elections also dented the conventional wisdom that the growth in the Hispanic population in the Southwest would make it harder for Republican candidates to be successful there. Republican candidates clearly were successful in the Southwest in 2010, and Arizona is now flanked by two states with strong Hispanic Republicans at the helm – Governor Susana Martinez in New Mexico, and Governor Brian Sandoval in Nevada. Perhaps the most important signal the state is trending positively for Republicans can be seen in voter registration statistics. The GOP registration advantage which had dipped from 160,000 in 2006 to 90,000 in 2009 has surged since 2010. Republicans now outnumber Democrats by over 150,000 among active voters statewide. Taken together with his poor marks among Independent voters it becomes hard to mathematically find enough voters for Obama to win, even if all Democrats eventually hold their noses and vote for him. If the Obama campaign wants to spend millions in a state he lost in 2008, we welcome that strategy because it means he won’t be spending it in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida where he won in 2008 and is currently under water in the polls. Team Obama may spin they are on offense but some advice for them would be to double-down on defense or the President will have plenty of time to vacation in sunny Arizona after the election.   2011-12-09T14:23:49+00:00 http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/memorandum_on_michigan_primary_debate/ http://www.gop.com/index.php/politicalblog/comments/memorandum_on_michigan_primary_debate/#When:14:22:27Z Last week USA Today and Gallup released the results of their first “Swing State Poll” conducted in 12 of the most important battleground states in next year’s election.   An ominous finding for the President is only 37% of voters in swing states feel they’re better off today than they were when he was elected three years ago.  And at a time when economic concerns dominate the political landscape, swing-state voters said a Republican candidate would do a better job handling the issues of the federal budget deficit and debt (+16%) and the issue of unemployment (+7%).   It’s important to note all 12 of these swing states were won by the President in 2008.   The swing state with Obama’s widest margin of victory is Michigan - and on Wednesday that’s where our Republican candidates will be.  At 8:00pm (EST) at Oakland University in Rochester they’ll participate in a Michigan Republican Party-sponsored debate where they’ll share their solutions for getting the country’s economy in order and Americans back to work. It’s no secret Michigan has been hit especially hard during the economic downturn.  Over half a million Michiganders are out of work.  Unemployment in Michigan remains over 11% - the third highest state in the country behind only Nevada and California and like everywhere, jobs and the economy are the top issues.  Last month, Obama visited Michigan for the 9th time, this time touting his $80 billion bailout for GM & Chrysler and the recent trade deal with South Korea (a deal Republicans had been pressing him for since he took office).   The frequency of his visits suggests he knows how important Michigan is electorally.  But Obama’s problem is he must convince Michigan voters he not only likes to visit, but his priorities have been correct, and he’s providing the policies and leadership necessary to help states like Michigan recover.   Polling suggests Michigan voters aren’t convinced. An October survey by EPIC/MRA shows only 14% of Michigan voters believe the country is going in the right direction.  Conversely, the vast majority see the country going the wrong way.  Seven in ten voters (71%) say things have “pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track”.  In May of Obama’s first year in office the state was almost evenly split on this same question.   When asked about Obama himself, only 38% of voters gave the President a positive rating for the job he’s doing.  That’s an embarrassingly low number for someone who carried the state with 57% of the vote just three years ago. Although Michigan has supported the Democrat in the last five Presidential elections, it is far from a typical liberal blue-state.   Michigan (Macomb County, specifically) has long been referred to as the unofficial home of the ‘Reagan Democrat’.   Michigan has bucked the Democrat establishment before, and last year its voters decided it was time to rid the state of failed Democrat leadership.  Voters gave Republicans a virtual sweep of state office by electing Governor Rick Snyder, Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, Attorney General Bill Schuette, Secretary of State Ruth Johnson, a super-majority in the State Senate and a new majority in the State House.   Equally as impressive as the size of the victory was where it occurred, with Republicans picking off legislative districts and local races across the state, including in traditionally Democrat territory around Detroit.   Governor Snyder carried all but 4 of Michigan’s 83 counties and won with the largest victory margin for a Republican in 12 years.  It’s against this backdrop our Republican candidates will debate on Wednesday.   One thing beyond debate is Michigan voters will see a stage full of candidates better suited to lead than Barack Obama.  Michigan decided to replace a Democrat chief executive with a Republican in Lansing last year, and given the path it’s on, it seems reasonable to think Michigan will decide to do the same for Washington next year. I could also mention the USA Today/Gallup swing state survey I mentioned earlier also shows a large enthusiasm advantage for Republicans in swing states, but that would be piling on. 2011-11-10T14:22:27+00:00