The punditry is filled today with the conventional wisdom that independents came back to the Republican Party with yesterday’s elections.  We have been seeing this migration of independents back to our Party build for months, and we believe it will continue through the 2010 cycle.

Indeed, back in September a CNN/Opinion Dynamics poll found a majority of independents disapproving of the president's job performance for the first time.  Independents are moving toward conservative candidates and the GOP because they see the Obama White House, along with Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, moving too far and too fast in their push for a government takeover of our health care system.  They see that our economy is continuing to shed jobs, even after the Democrats’ stimulus plan wasted billions of taxpayer dollars, and they are wary of the Democrat plans to increase taxes on everything from bandages and wheelchairs to small businesses and our energy.   

The data bears this out.  Last night, the exit polls showed Chris Christie won 58 percent of independents in New Jersey.  In Virginia, Bob McDonnell won an incredible 65 percent of independent voters.  The numbers are even more staggering if you look at the cumulative percentages.  Last night, Democratic candidates won just 43% of the cumulative vote in New Jersey, Virginia and NY-23.  This, despite the fact that President Obama won New Jersey in 2008 with more than 57% of the vote, Virginia with about 53% and the New York 23^rd congressional district with 52%.

If gains like that can be made in districts that President Obama WON last year, the real news from last night ought to be what Democrats have in store when 49 incumbent Democrats in the U.S. House are up for re-election in districts that President Obama LOST in 2008. 

The continuing movement of independent voters back to conservative candidates in those districts could mean an even worse night next November for Democrats than we saw last night.