Bluffing?
While David Plouffe had a lot of talk about bluffing today, Team Obama’s actions – skipping North Carolina, traveling to New Hampshire and putting more money into Wisconsin – speak louder than words.
That’s on top of the polls continuing to trend Romney’s way nationally and in New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Michigan and great early vote news coming out of Colorado and Florida for the GOP. See today’s news:
Reuters: Romney steals narrow lead from Obama as election nears
Republican candidate Mitt Romney was 1 percentage point ahead of President Barack Obama in Wednesday’s Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll in a presidential race that is effectively a dead heat less than two weeks before the November 6 election. In a reversal of Tuesday’s results, Romney led Obama among likely voters by 47 percent to 46 percent, a statistically insignificant margin, in the four-day online tracking poll. Obama had a lead of 53-42 percent among the 17 percent of the surveyed registered voters who said they had already cast their vote.
Washington Post: Post-ABC tracking poll: Obama wins final debate, Romney changes minds
President Obama scored a modest win in the third presidential debate, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll, but it’s Republican Mitt Romney who moved the needle among likely voters — including independents — with his debate performances.
TPM: PPP: National Tracking Poll Shows Tie Between Obama, Romney
President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney are tied in Wednesday’s national tracking poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP). Both candidates get 48 percent of likely voters, a move from yesterday’s 49 percent to 47 percent lead for Romney in PPP’s polling.
NumbersMuncher Romney’s Independent Surge: A look at current national polls shows why Romney has big strength w/ indys in homestretch. pic.twitter.com/PJg5uxcn
NORTH CAROLINA:
CNN: CNN shifts North Carolina to ‘lean Romney’
Color North Carolina light red. CNN is moving its classification of the swing state from true “toss up” to “lean Romney.” Four years ago then Sen. Barack Obama became the first Democrat since 1976 to carry North Carolina in a presidential election. And this summer the Democrats held their nominating convention in Charlotte. While the Obama campaign continues to run ads in North Carolina, spending just over $1.2 million to run spots over the past week, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ad spending for CNN, the president hasn’t made a campaign stop in the state since his nomination at the Democratic convention in early September. Last week, in a clear sign its confident about turning the state from blue to red, Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s campaign moved its North Carolina spokesman out of the state and planned to shift more staffers to other states.
News Observer: North Carolina excluded from latest round of Obama ads
North Carolina is not included in the newest round of TV ads being aired by the re-election campaign of Barack Obama. One new ad is running in Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia. A second ad is running in those states as well as New Hampshire and Wisconsin.
WISCONSIN:
Priorities USA is placing new broadcast buys in La Crosse, Madison and Milwaukee for 10/24-11/6. Earlier, they had booked buys in all markets in WI for 10/9-11/6 and then cancelled all of them, except for Green Bay. Now they going back into these other markets and booking new buys for the last two weeks.
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Jdistaso: Campaign official: @BarackObama to speak at Elm St. Middle School in Nashua 10/27 (doors: 12 noon) after James Taylor performs #nhpolitics
An Obama campaign official said this evening President Barack Obama’s event on Saturday will be held at the Elm Street Middle School in Nashua. Doors will open at 12 noon.
Rasmussen Reports: Election 2012: New Hampshire President
The presidential race in New Hampshire remains neck-and-neck, with Mitt Romney stretching to a two-point lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, finds Romney earning 50% support, while President Obama has 48% of the vote. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. New Hampshire remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.
OHIO:
Rasmussen: Election 2012: Ohio President Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48%
NumbersMuncher: CNN/Time Ohio poll has Obama up 5, 49-44. Sample is D+9. It was D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010… wow.
Jpodhoretz Democratic pollster Celinda Lake has Ohio at 46-44 Obama, 600 likely voters–that 9 percent undecided a big deal in a partisan poll.
VIRGINIA:
Politico: Obama, Romney in virtual tie in Va.
A new poll out from the University of Virginia and George Mason University finds what other polls have been telling us about the state of the race in Virginia lately: that it’s a very close, margin-of-error contest. Mitt Romney takes 46 percent in the poll of registered voters, compared with 45 percent for President Obama. The poll found that about three-quarters of those surveyed were certain of their choice, which leaves about a quarter undecided — a larger proportion of undecided voters than we’re seeing in many of the other key battleground states. Things are virtually tied on the Senate front, too, with Republican George Allen taking 43 percent to Democrat Tim Kaine’s 40 percent.
VA Early Vote:
Good data and analysis on Virginia early vote Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report and Josh Kraushaar of National Journal were tweeting this afternoon. Key takeaway: Turnout and enthusiasm is up in Virginia’s reddest counties and in coal country and down in Obama’s strongholds. See here: http://www.gop.com/general/virginia-early-vote-stats/
FLORIDA:
Miami Herald: Florida closing in on 1 million absentee votes; 10% of electorate has voted; GOP up 5%
About 1 million Floridians will have cast absentee ballots in the nation’s biggest battleground state by day’s end based on current trends. As of this morning, 925,000 people have already voted. That’s about 10 percent — if note more — of the likely Florida electorate of about 9 million voters.
COLORADO:
9 News: 325,000 ballots cast in Colorado after 2 days of early voting
More than 325,000 ballots had already been cast in Colorado by mail or in early voting center as of Wednesday morning, according to figures released by the Colorado Secretary of State’s office. Republican turnout outpaced Democrats by more than 5,000 registered voters.
MICHIGAN:
Fox Detroit: Michigan Poll: Obama and Romney in dead heat
Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election. …The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?
President Barack Obama: 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney: 46.56%
another candidate: 2.30%
Undecided: 4.23%
Rasmussen Reports: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now. Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information. In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
Rasmussen Reports: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. Two percent (2%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
ABC News: Romney Takes Lead on Economy; White Men are the Movers
Mitt Romney has advanced to a slight lead over Barack Obama in trust to handle the economy, and Obama has slipped beneath a clear majority in who better understands the public’s economic problems – two key metrics of the 2012 presidential race. These trends in the latest ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll aren’t strong enough to change current preferences, nor is the 2-1 view that Obama won Monday night’s final debate. But they’re among the underlying dynamics making the race seem closer now than a month ago. The candidates remain essentially tied, with 49 percent of likely voters for Romney, 48 percent for Obama in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. That includes vast and sharpening gaps among some groups, with highs for both candidates among core supporters.
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