For Mrrs. Messina and Bird. The Propensity Post:
The Obama campaign tried to spin their way around the facts on a conference call earlier this evening, citing the RNC’s posts educating folks on what is happening in the early vote. While they offered so much misinformation it was tough to choose what to rebut, we wanted to highlight one particular aspect of the numbers that we hadn’t previously blogged on.
When assessing who is voting early it’s important to figure out if both camps are just turning out people who would have voted anyway (high-propensity voters) or those who sometimes miss elections (low-propensity voters). Our method for determining a “low-propensity” voter is simple. If they have missed 2 or more of the last 4 elections OR if they are a new voter we consider them “low propensity”
This is significant because a party’s share of the electorate only grows if they are turning out these low-propensity voters who don’t already vote. The Democrats haven’t been doing that. A huge percentage of their early vote has been people who were voting regardless which means there are a lot more likely GOP voters available to vote on election day and help us run up our margins.
To the facts:
Republicans have 37% more of our reliable, high-propensity voters still available for Election Day – an advantage of over 660,000 voters across the battleground states. This edge is even more stark in key states:
- Democrats have turned out over 48 percent of their high propensity voters in Ohio, while Republicans have only turned out 32 percent. There are over 368,000 more reliable Republican voters available on Election Day than Democrats have.
- In Iowa, Democrats have turned out over half of their voters who cast ballots in all four of the last four general elections. Republicans have almost twice as many very reliable voters available on Election Day than Democrats do – an advantage of more than 86,000 voters.
- In Florida, Democrats have turned out a larger share of their high propensity voters in absentee and early voting. Republicans have over 160,000 more available high-propensity voters than Democrats have.
Take a look at this chart to see all the data for yourself. Click here.