Obama Struggling To Remain Competitive In North Carolina

OBAMA IS MAKING A BIG PLAY FOR NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina Is Key To Obama’s “South Path” Of Gaining The 270 Electoral Votes Necessary To Win Re-Election. “During a briefing for reporters at the DNC yesterday, Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina outlined five paths that would get President Obama to 270 electoral votes. Each starts with Sen. John Kerry’s 2004 map (246 EVs): … South Path: Win North Carolina and Virginia (274 EVs).” (Mike Allen, Politico’s “Playbook,” 12/14/11)

Team Obama Chose To Have The Democratic Convention In Charlotte To Pursue This Southern Path. OBAMA CAMPAIGN MANAGER JIM MESSINA: “We put the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., in part because we believe so deeply in this (New South) map.” (Peter Nicholas, “Team Obama Lays Out Electoral Map Strategy,” Los Angeles Times, 12/29/11)

But Obama’s Poll Numbers Are Lagging As Leading Democrats And Analysts Predict A November Loss

High Point University Poll: Obama Trails A Generic Republican Challenger 47-42 Percent In North Carolina. (High Point University Poll, 660 Adults, MoE 5%, 2/4-9/12)

• Gallup: Obama’s 2011 Average Approval Rating In North Carolina Was Just 43.7 Percent. (Jeffrey Jones, “Obama Approval Above 50% In 10 States And D.C. In 2011,” Gallup, 1/31/12)
• Public Policy Polling: 49 Percent Of North Carolinians Disapprove Of President Obama’s Job Performance, While Just 48 Percent Approve. (Public Policy Polling, 1052 LV, MoE 3%, 2/3-2/5/12)

Former DNC Chairman Howard Dean: Obama “Will Probably Lose North Carolina.” “Looking at the Electoral College map, Dean predicts … the president will hold the crucial swing states of Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, and ‘could have a shot in Arizona because of the Latino vote.’ Dean cautions that Obama ‘could lose Pennsylvania and Michigan and will probably lose North Carolina,’ where Democrats are holding their convention this fall, along with Indiana. Still, all the president needs is 270, and currently has a number of different pathways to victory.” (Ari Berman, “Howard Dean Predicts Obama Re-Election, Democrats Retake House,” The Nation, 2/14/12)

The University Of Virginia’s Larry Sabato: “I Think North Carolina Is Likely To End Up Red.” “I think North Carolina is likely to end up red. … The two states that Obama carried in 2008 that he’s most likely to lose are first of all, Indiana. I think that one’s gone regardless of what happens. And North Carolina, I think probably Obama loses.” (David Patten and Kathleen Walter, “Sabato: NC An ‘Uphill Climb’ For Obama In 2012,” Newsmax, 10/18/11)

• National Journal Headline: “Heavy Lift for Obama in North Carolina” (Naureen Khan, “Heavy Lift for Obama in North Carolina,” National Journal, 2/14/12)
• Greensboro News & Record’s Mark Binker: Obama Will See “The Voters Who Helped Him Gain A Razor Thin Victory Here In 2008 Stay Home.” “Obama, meanwhile, will see some of the voters who helped him gain a razor thin victory here in 2008 stay home because of what they see as a lack of progress on the economy.” (Mark Binker, Op-Ed, “A Perilous Venture – Predicting North Carolina Politics,” Greensboro News & Record, 12/29/11)

“Moody’s — Which Accurately Predicted The 2008 Results Down To The Electoral Vote — Puts North Carolina In The ‘Leans Republican’ Category And Suggests Obama Will Win Only 47.3 Percent Of The State’s Vote.” (“Election Model Predicts Obama Victory, But GOP Win In North Carolina,” News & Observer’s, Under The Dome, 2/27/12)

And Obama Is Slipping With The Key Voting Bloc Of Young Voters That Propelled Him To Victory In 2008

Young Voter Turnout And Margins Gave Obama His 2008 Victory In North Carolina. “In certain states — particularly Indiana and North Carolina — young voters gave Obama the edge over Sen. John McCain, the Republican nominee.” (“Young Voters Cool To Obama,” The Tennessean, 3/3/12)

Obama’s Approval Rating Has Fallen 24 Points Among Young Voters Over The Past Three Years. “Although they back Barack Obama for reelection by a wide margin in matchups against both Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, just 49% approve of his job performance, down 24 points since February 2009.” (“The Generation Gap And The 2012 Election,” Pew Research Center, 11/3/11)

• And Since The 2008 Election, North Carolina Has Lost A Net 48,500 Young Registered Voters, Over 80 Percent Of Whom Are Democrats. “A new, comparative analysis of current voter registration data in the key electoral states of Nevada and North Carolina shows a drastic drop from 2008 levels, when a record-high proportion of young Americans turned out overwhelmingly to cast their votes to elect Barack Obama as President. … Between November 2008 and November 2011, North Carolina saw a net gain of 93,709 in the number of overall, new registrations.  However, youth registrants (ages 18-25) lost a net of 48,500 new registrations, while older adults (ages 26 and over) gained over 142,000 registrants. Of the 48,500 net loss in youth registrants, 80.4% were lost among registered Democrats, a net loss of 39,049 young Democratic registrants.” (The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, “New Analysis of Young Voters in Battleground States Show Steep Decline in ’08 Democratic Advantage,” Press Release, 12/30/11)

Leading North Carolina Democrats Retiring Rather Than Face Voters With Obama On Top Of The Ticket

High-Profile Retirements Of Gov. Bev Perdue (D-NC) And Reps. Heath Shuler (D-NC) And Brad Miller (D-NC) In State Where Democratic National Convention To Be Held Is Adding To The “Perception That The Democratic Party Has Been Weakened In North Carolina.” “North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler’s announcement Thursday that he will not run again in November was hardly surprising … But the timing was unfortunate for Tarheel Democrats hosting their party’s presidential nominating convention this summer: In the past few days they’ve seen Gov. Bev Perdue and Rep. Brad Miller also head for the exits. These impending retirements have provided more fuel for Republicans’ fire in this critical battleground state, and contribute to their perception that the Democratic Party has been weakened in North Carolina.” (Caitlin Huey-Burns, “Shuler’s Retirement Highlights Democrats’ Challenges In N.C.,” Real Clear Politics, 2/3/12)

• Gov. Bev Perdue (D-NC) Who “Rode Into Office Partly On The Coattails Of Mr. Obama’s Surprise 2008 Victory In North Carolina” Decided Against Running For Re-Election With Obama Leading The Democratic Ticket. “Gov. Bev Perdue said Thursday she will not seek re-election because she fears a fight with Republicans over public education would become too political. … Mrs. Perdue, the state’s first female governor, rode into office partly on the coattails of Mr. Obama’s surprise 2008 victory in North Carolina.” (Gary D. Robertson, “Bev Perdue Won’t Seek Second Term As North Carolina Governor,” The Associated Press, 1/26/12)

AFTER ONE FAILED TERM, A SECOND OBAMA TERM WOULD CONTINUE TAKING NORTH CAROLINA IN THE WRONG DIRECTION

A Second Obama Term Would Lead To Higher Taxes, More Debt, And More Spending

Obama Is “Setting Up The U.S. Economy For One Of The Biggest Tax Increases In History In 2013.” “President Obama unveiled part two of his American Jobs Act on Monday, and it turns out to be another permanent increase in taxes to pay for more spending and another temporary tax cut. No surprise there. What might surprise Americans, however, is how the President is setting up the U.S. economy for one of the biggest tax increases in history in 2013.” (Editorial, “The 2013 Tax Cliff,” The Wall Street Journal, 9/14/11)

• Obama’s FY2013 Budget Calls For $1.9 Trillion In Higher Taxes. (Fiscal Year 2013 Budget Of The U.S. Government,” OMB, 2/13/12)

And Obama Has Said He Is “Agnostic” On Raising Taxes On Those Making Less Than $250,000 As Part Of A Plan To Reduce The Deficit. “President Barack Obama said he is ‘agnostic’ about raising taxes on households making less than $250,000 as part of a broad effort to rein in the budget deficit.  Obama, in a Feb. 9 Oval Office interview, said that a presidential commission on the budget needs to consider all options for reducing the deficit, including tax increases and cuts in spending on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.” (Rich Miller, “Obama ‘Agnostic’ On Deficit Cuts, Won’t Prejudge Tax Increases,”Bloomberg, 2/11/10)

• President Obama Was “Intrigued By [The] Elegance” Of Allowing All Of The Bush Tax Cuts To Expire In Order To Cut The Deficit. “In November 2009, Orszag would tout an idea that divided the economic team and inspired contempt in the political shop: extending for one or two years George W. Bush’s middle class cuts, which were scheduled to expire in 2011, then letting them lapse unless Congress found a way to offset their costs. During a meeting with Obama in the Oval Office, he casually outlined the proposal. The obvious defect was that it would be likely to break the president’s campaign pledge to oppose tax increases on the middle class. Nevertheless, Obama was intrigued by its elegance as a deficit-cutting maneuver, according to two people in the room. He also liked the idea of forcing Republicans to grapple with the costs of Bush’s policies. Only later did the politicos revolt—the vice president, for one, was apoplectic—and the president lost interest.” (Noam Scheiber, The Escape Artists,  2012, p. 154-155)

Obama’s FY2013 Budget Fails To Control Long-Term Spending And Leaves The “Debt Bomb Ticking.”  “The best test of a budget proposal these days is whether it reins in the national debt, which is projected to equal a troubling 74% of gross domestic product this year. The last time the publicly held debt was that high as a percentage of the economy was in 1950, when the nation was still paying off the stupendous amount of money it had to borrow to fight and win World War II. The election-year budget President Obama sent to Congress on Monday fails that test.” (Editorial, “Obama’s Budget Plan Leaves Debt Bomb Ticking,” USA Today, 2/13/12)

• The President’s FY2013 Budget Projects That Obama Will Increase The National Debt To $17.548 Trillion By The End Of FY2013. (“The Budget For Fiscal Year 2013; Table S-15. Federal Government Financing And Debt,” Office Of Management And Budget, Accessed 3/2/12)

Since Obama Took Office, North Carolina’s Share Of The National Debt Has Increased By $150.5 Billion With Each North Carolinian’s Share Increasing $ $15,786.91. (Treasury Direct, Accessed 3/5/12)

In A Second Term, Obama Would Make Good On His Pledge To Continue Increasing Energy Costs

Obama Would Bring Back Cap-And-Trade If Reelected. “We have to have an even more robust energy policy if we’re going to create the kind of jobs in this new energy sector that are needed and we’re going to deal with climate change in a serious way.” (President Barack Obama, Remarks At A Campaign Event, San Francisco, CA, 2/17/12)

• Obama: “Under My Plan Of A Cap-And-Trade System, Electricity Rates Would Necessarily Skyrocket.” OBAMA: “When I was asked earlier about the issue of coal, you know, under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket. Even regardless of what I say about whether coal is good or bad. Because I’m capping greenhouse gases, coal power plants, you know, natural gas, you name it, whatever the plants were, whatever the industry was, uh, they would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that money on to consumers.” (Sen. Barack Obama, Interview With The San Francisco Chronicle’s Editorial Board, San Francisco Chronicle, 1/17/08)

The CBO Says “Cap-And-Trade” Would Lead To 3.5 Percent Decrease In GDP By 2050. “[T]he Congressional Budget Office (CBO) concludes that the cap-and-trade provisions of H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACESA), if implemented, would reduce gross domestic product (GDP) below what it would otherwise have been–by roughly 1/4 percent to 3/4 percent in 2020 and by between 1 percent and 3.5 percent in 2050.” (“The Economic Effects Of Legislation To Reduce Greenhouse-Gas Emissions,” Congressional Budget Office, 9/17/09)

• Cap-And-Trade Would Lead To GDP Losses Of $9.4 Trillion Between 2012 And 2035. The Heritage Foundation: “Cumulative gross domestic product (GDP) losses are $9.4 trillion between 2012 and 2035.” (David Kreutzer, et al., “The Economic Consequences of Waxman-Markey: An Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009,” The Heritage Foundation, Center For Data Analysis Report #09-04, 8/6/09)

According To The Heritage Foundation, The Average Annual Cost Of Cap And Trade Legislation On The State Of North Carolina, Between 2012-2035 Per Year Would Be:

• Gross State Product Lost Per Year: $9.139 Billion
• Personal Income Reduction Per Year: $3.091 Billion.
• Jobs Destroyed Per Year: 38,907
• Electricity Price Hike Per Year: $740.42 Per Household
• Gas Price Hike Per Year: $0.65 Per Gallon. (David Kreutzer, Ph.D., et. al, “Impact of the Waxman-Markey Climate Change Legislation On North Carolina,” Press Release, 8/19/09)

In A Second Term, ObamaCare Would Raise Taxes, Kill Jobs And Continue Increasing Health Care Costs For North Carolinians

“Starting In 2013, The Bill Adds An Additional .9 Percent To The 2.9 Percent Medicare Tax For Singles Who Earn More Than $200,000 And Couples Earning More Than $250,000.” (Editorial, “Taxes Upon Taxes Upon…,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/11/11)

• High-Income Earners Will Pay Thousands In Medicare Payroll Taxes. “High-income earners – families making more than $250,000 – will pay several thousand dollars more in Medicare payroll taxes starting in 2013.” (“How The Health Care Overhaul Could Affect You,” The New York Times, 3/21/10) 

On January 1, 2013, ObamaCare Will Impose An Excise Tax Of 2.3% On Taxable Medical Devices. (Implementation Timeline, Kaiser Family Foundation, Accessed 3/1/12)

• Obama’s Health Care Bill Raises $20 Billion Over 10 Years In New Taxes On Medical Devices. (“Estimated Revenue Effects Of The Manager’s Amendment To The Revenue Provisions Contained In The ‘Patient Protection And Affordable Care Act,” Joint Committee On Taxation Report, 3/20/10)
• The Excise Tax Will “Cost North Carolina 861 Jobs And About $70 Million In Annual Employment Compensation.” “A study released today by the medical industry device trade group AdvaMed says that the planned implementation of a 2.3 percent excise tax on medical device sales in 2013 could cost North Carolina 861 jobs and about $70 million in annual employment compensation. That’s based on the study’s estimated impact of the tax on the finances of medical device companies and the possibility that the new tax would shift 10 percent of existing domestic device manufacturing offshore.” (Matt Evans, “Medical Device Tax Will Cost N.C. Jobs, Study Says,” Triad Biz Blog, 9/7/11)

This Year, North Carolina Employers Will See Increased Health Insurance Premiums, And 60 Percent “Said They Are Shifting Cost To Their Employees By Raising Deductibles, Copays/Coinsurance Or Out-Of-Pocket Maximums, Increasing Employees’ Share Of The Premium Contribution.”  “Mercer, a human-resource consulting company in Charlotte, annually tracks health-insurance charges nationwide. The survey of 86 North Carolina employers — all with at least 10 employees — found an average projected premium increase of 5.2 percent over 2011 costs. Mercer said 60 percent of N.C. respondents — up from 40 percent in 2011 — said they are shifting cost to their employees by raising deductibles, copays/coinsurance or out-of-pocket maximums, increasing employees’ share of the premium contribution, or in some other way.” (Richard Craver, “Employee Health Care Costs Going Up In 2012,” Winston-Salem Journal, 11/15/11)

In A Second Term, Obama Would Implement Crippling Defense Cuts Which Will Hurt North Carolina’s Economy, And Target North Carolina’s Veterans

Secretary Of Defense Panetta: In 2013, Sequestration “Guarantees That We Are Going To Hollow The Force And Devastate Our National Security.” PANETTA: “And let me tell you something if sequester goes into effect, you can throw all of this out the window. Sequester doubles the numbers of cuts, does it through that crazy formula, and guarantees that we are going to hallow the force and devastate our national security.” (Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Defense, U.S. House Of Representatives, Testimony, 2/16/12)

• North Carolina “Relies Heavily On Defense Contractors.” “The biggest political threat that President Barack Obama could face in military towns like Norfolk and Fayetteville and Tampa isn’t criticism that he’s pulling out of Afghanistan or Iraq too early. … North Carolina, which Obama won by 1 percentage point, relies heavily on defense contractors.” (Carrie Budoff Brown, “GOP Turns Defense Cuts On Obama,” Politico, 2/14/12)

North Carolina Among States With A Large Military Presence, Is Home To About 800,000 Veterans. “Several states that will be heavily contested next year have a significant military presence. Florida, home to a number of military installations, has more than 1.6 million veterans. Virginia and North Carolina, which Obama carried in 2008, both have about 800,000 veterans, and Colorado has more than 400,000.” (Ken Thomas, “Obama Angling For Votes From Vets,” The Associated Press, 12/13/11)

Obama’s FY2013 Budget Would Force “Military Families And Retirees To Pay Sharply More For Their Healthcare.” “The Obama administration’s proposed defense budget calls for military families and retirees to pay sharply more for their healthcare, while leaving unionized civilian defense workers’ benefits untouched. The proposal is causing a major rift within the Pentagon, according to U.S. officials. … The proposed increases in health care payments by service members, which must be approved by Congress, are part of the Pentagon’s $487 billion cut in spending. It seeks to save $1.8 billion from the TRICARE medical system in the fiscal 2013 budget, and $12.9 billion by 2017.” (Bill Gertz, “Trashing TRICARE: Obama To Cut Healthcare Benefits For Active Duty And Retired US Military,” The Washington Free Beacon, 2/27/12)

• Obama’s FY2013 Budget “Calls For Increasing The Cost Of Pharmaceuticals For Families Of Active Duty Military And For Sharp Increases In Premiums For Military Retirees.” “The fiscal 2013 defense budget submitted to Congress calls for increasing the cost of pharmaceuticals for families of active duty military and for sharp increases in premiums for military retirees. The objective is to save $1.8 billion from the Tricare medical system this year and $12.9 billion by 2017.” (Bill Gertz, “The War On Tricare,” The Washington Free Beacon, 3/1/12)