Research

The Big Fail: Show Me A Loser For Obama Campaign

Obama No Longer Competitive In Century-Long Bellwether State

Today, Vice President Biden Will Attend A Fundraiser For Sen. Claire McCaskill’s (D-MO) Re-Election Bid. “The vice president will attend a fundraiser July 9 in Kansas City, Mo., McCaskill’s campaign announced. It will be Biden’s first trip to the state as vice president.”(Justin Sink, “Biden To Campaign With McCaskill In Missouri,” The Hill’s Ballot Box, 6/29/12)

AFTER A RAZOR-THIN LOSS IN 2008, OBAMA IS NO LONGER COMPETITIVE IN THE SHOW ME STATE

“Missouri Has Been A Bellwether State For More Than 100 Years, With Presidential Candidates Lavishing Attention On Show-Me State Voters And Spending Millions On Field Operations, Glossy Campaign Mailers, And TV Ads.” (Deirdre Shesgreen, “Missouri Slips From Political Bellwether Status This Fall,”USA Today, 6/24/12)

“But This Election? Not So Much. … Most Political Handicappers Instead Have Missouri In The ‘Leans Republican’ Column.” (Deirdre Shesgreen, “Missouri Slips From Political Bellwether Status This Fall,” USA Today, 6/24/12)

Four Years Ago, Obama Lost Missouri By A “Razor-Close, 4,000-Vote Margin … Missouri Appears To Have Vanished From The Swing State Ranks.” ““Four years after John McCain won there by a razor-close, 4,000-vote margin over Barack Obama, Missouri appears to have vanished from the swing state ranks.” (Charles Mahtesian, “Missouri: Scorned Swing State,” Politico, 6/25/12)

“Missouri Is No Longer A Coveted Electoral Bride.” “Missouri is no longer a coveted electoral bride. … But this time around, Missouri is left standing alone as candidates focus on wooing the hearts of nine other states.” (Nicholas J.C. Pistor, “Missouri’s Swing-State Luster Dims,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 6/24/12)

Politico: Missouri: Scorned Swing State. (Charles Mahtesian, “Missouri: Scorned Swing State,” Politico, 6/25/12) 

Political Analysts And Democrat Strategists Concede Missouri Is Not In Play

Democrat Strategist James Carville: “Missouri In My Definition Is Not A Swing State.” “On Wednesday, CNN analyst and Democratic strategist James Carville sat on a stage at the Peabody Opera House in downtown St. Louis and confirmed the obvious. ‘Missouri in my definition is not a swing state,’ Carville told the crowd in a political discussion sponsored by Wells Fargo Advisors.” (Nicholas J.C. Pistor, “Missouri’s Swing-State Luster Dims,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 6/24/12)

Democrat Strategist Donna Brazile: “Missouri Is A Bellwether State. Perhaps The President And His Team Have Decided Not To Compete This Fall.” (CNN’s “Anderson Cooper,” 2/7/12)

Kansas City-Based Democrat Consultant Richard Martin: “It’s Pretty Clear Missouri Is Not A Battleground State For The Obama Re-Elect.” “‘It’s pretty clear Missouri is not a battleground state for the Obama re-elect,’ said Kansas City-based Democratic consultant Richard Martin. ‘And those other states are.’” (Dave Helling, “Obama Ad Attacking Romney’s Involvement With KC Company Isn’t Running In Missouri,” The Kansas City Star, 5/14/12)

Larry Sabato, Director Of The University Of Virginia’s Center For Politics: “We used to look to Missouri. … We don’t anymore.” (Deirdre Shesgreen, “Missouri Slips From Political Bellwether Status This Fall,” USA Today, 6/24/12)

The Obama Campaign Isn’t Advertising In Missouri

“The Airwaves Are Dark And The Two Presidential Campaigns Aren’t Giving The State The Kind Of Attention It’s Grown Accustomed To Every Four Years.” (Charles Mahtesian, “Missouri: Scorned Swing State,” Politico, 6/25/12)

Taking Missouri Off The Map Was “Cemented” When The Obama Campaign Didn’t Include Missouri In A Swing State Ad Buy. “The status change was cemented earlier this month when President Barack Obama didn’t include Missouri in his television ad buy targeting swing-state voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.” (Nicholas J.C. Pistor, “Missouri’s Swing-State Luster Dims,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 6/24/12)

And Democrats Gave Missouri The “Cold Shoulder,” Deciding Against Holding Their Convention In St. Louis

Missouri’s Fading Battleground State Reputation Was Underlined This Year When The DNC Chose Charlotte Over St. Louis To Host The National Convention. “The state’s fading battleground reputation first became noticeable in 2008, when Sen. John McCain won Missouri despite a national swing-state lust for Obama. It was underlined last year when Democrats chose Charlotte, N.C., over St. Louis to host their party’s national convention.” (Nicholas J.C. Pistor, “Missouri’s Swing-State Luster Dims,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 6/24/12)

“Democrats Gave The Cold Shoulder To St. Louis In Favor Of Holding Their National Convention In Charlotte.” “Then Democrats gave the cold shoulder to St. Louis in favor of holding their national convention in Charlotte.” (Charles Mahtesian, “Missouri: Scorned Swing State,” Politico, 6/25/12)

HAVING OBAMA ON THE TOP OF THE TICKET IS AN “ALBATROSS” FOR MISSOURI DEMOCRATS THIS FALL

Roll Call’s Stuart Rothenberg: Sen. Claire McCaskill’s (D-MO) “Albatross Right Now May Well Be President Barack Obama.” “McCaskill’s albatross right now may well be President Barack Obama, who lost the state very narrowly four years ago and seems primed to lose Missouri by a far larger margin later this year.” (Stuart Rothenberg, Op-Ed, “Claire McCaskill’s Mountain: A Tough Climb To Victory,” Roll Call, 2/28/12)

  • Rothenberg: “With Personal Issues And A Public Record That Offered Effusive Early Praise For Obama, McCaskill Simply Has Too Much Baggage.” (Stuart Rothenberg, Op-Ed, “Claire McCaskill’s Mountain: A Tough Climb To Victory,” Roll Call, 2/28/12)