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155 Million Reasons To Be Happy

- August 3, 2018

This Month's Jobs Report Shows President Trump's Economy Is Booming, As A Record Number Of Americans Are Employed

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TOP TAKEAWAYS

  • The U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs in July, and the June and May totals were revised to incorporate significant gains, bringing the total job increase in today's report to 216,000.
  • President Trump's pro-growth policies have fostered a roaring economy, driven down the unemployment rate across the board, and put a record number of Americans back to work.
    • Under President Obama, African American unemployment was on average 5.2% higher than the general population, Hispanic unemployment averaged 1.9% higher.
    • Under President Trump, not only has minority unemployment plummeted, but the unemployment gap has narrowed to 3% for African Americans, and .9% for Hispanics.
  • The U.S. economy is "on strong footing" after today's "positive" jobs report.
  • Consumers are feeling good and spending more thanks to increased disposable income because of the GOP Tax Cuts.
  • Small business optimism remains historically high and small business hiring is at its highest point since 1999.

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JOB GROWTH CONTINUED TO SOAR AND UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUED TO FALL IN JULY

Nonfarm Employment Increased By 157,000 Jobs In July, Combined With Positive Revisions For June And May, Mean The Cumulative Job Gains In Today's Report Total 216,000

Nonfarm Payroll Increased By 157,000 In July . ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 8/3/18)

  • Employment Gains In May And June Were Revised Up 59,000 Jobs, Bringing The Cumulative Jobs Increase In Today's Report To 216,000 . "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up from +244,000 to +268,000, and the change for June was revised up from +213,000 to +248,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 59,000 more than previously reported." ("Employment Situation Summary," Bureau Of Labor Statistics , 8/3/18)

Nonfarm Payroll Has Increased By 3,432,000 Since President Trump Took Office . ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 8/3/18)

Overview Of Recent Monthly Job Creation. ("Employment, Hours, And Earnings From The Current Employment Statistics Survey (National)," Bureau Of Labor Statistics , 8/3/18)

  • July: 157,000 Jobs Added
  • June: 248,000 Jobs Added
  • May: 268,000 Jobs Added
  • April: 175,000 Jobs Added
  • March: 155,000 Jobs Added
  • Feb: 324,000 Jobs Added
  • Jan: 176,000 Jobs Added
  • Dec: 175,000 Jobs Added
  • Nov: 216,000 Jobs Added
  • Oct: 271,000 Jobs Added

A Record 155,965,000 People Were Employed In July, This Number Is The 11th Time President Trump Has Broken That Record Since He Took Office . ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 8/3/18)

The Unemployment Rate Fell To 3.9 Percent, And Unemployment Claims Are At A Near Fifty Year Low

The Unemployment Rate Decreased To 3.9 Percent In July. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 8/3/18)

  • The Unemployment Rate Fell Close To An 18 Year Low In July. "The unemployment rate fell from 4% to 3.9%, close to its 18-year low, the Labor Department said Friday." (Paul Davidson, "Economy Added Disappointing 157,000 Jobs In July But Unemployment Fell To 3.9%," USA Today , 8/3/18)
  • Before This Year The Last Time The Unemployment Rate Was This Low Was In 2000. "Private analysts had estimated that about 190,000 jobs were added in July, and they had expected the unemployment rate to inch down to 3.9 percent from June's 4 percent. Before this year, the last time the jobless rate was this low was in 2000." (Avie Schneider, "U.S. Economy Added 157,000 Jobs In July; Unemployment Dips To 3.9 Percent," NPR , 8/3/18)

Unemployment For High School Dropouts Fell To A Record Low 5.1% In July. "Unemployment for high school dropouts fell to a record low of 5.1 percent in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning, suggesting that the recovery is increasingly benefiting some of the most economically vulnerable groups. The 5.1 percent mark beat the previous record low set in October, with data going back to the early 1990s." (Joseph Lawler, "Unemployment For High School Dropouts Falls To Record Low In July," The Washington Examiner , 8/3/18)

Unemployment Claims Dropped To 208,000 In Mid-July, The Lowest Reading Since 1969 . "Claims dropped to 208,000 during the week ended July 14, which was the lowest reading since December 1969. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 220,000 in the latest week." ("US Jobless Claims Rise Less Than Expected In Tight Labor Market," Reuters , 8/2/18)

Average Weekly Unemployment Claims Have "Run Near The Lowest Levels In A Half Century Over The Past Month." "Even with the modest increase, average weekly claims have run near the lowest levels in a half century over the past month. Mueller's midterm election Low claims are good sign. If few people are showing up at state unemployment agencies, it suggests that layoffs are rare and job creation is strong." (Joseph Lawler, "Jobless Claims Hover Near 50-Year Lows," The Washington Examiner , 7/26/18)

Unemployment Rates Are Historically Low, Especially For Groups Traditionally Plagued By High Unemployment

Hispanic Unemployment Plummeted To A New Record Low In July, Beating Expectations . "Unemployment for Hispanic workers again plumbed a new record low in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate for Hispanic or Latino workers fell to 4.5 percent in the month, lower than the previous record of 4.6 percent that was set just the month before." (Joseph Lawler, "Hispanic Unemployment Again Hits New Record Low In July," The Washington Examiner , 8/3/18)

Under President Trump, African American Unemployment Has Averaged 7.2% Narrowing The Unemployment Gap Between African Americans And The General Population To 3%. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 8/2/18)

Under President Trump, Hispanic Unemployment Has Averaged 5%, Narrowing The Unemployment Gap Between Hispanic Americans And The General Population To .8%. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 8/3/18)

THIS MONTH'S JOBS REPORT IS BEING WIDELY PRAISED

Today's "Positive" Jobs Report Is Being Praised From All Corners

CNBC's Steve Liesman Said The "The Job Market Was A Bit Stronger Than We Thought." CNBC's STEVE LIESMAN: "The main thing I think is the revisions the revisions tell you the job market was a bit stronger than we thought the three-month average which was coincidentally equal to my prediction is now higher it's 224 it was 214 going in. So the three month trajectory is higher I don't see too much in terms of saying the job market has meaningfully slowed. Pretty good dispersion here. Also temp help up as well. It's in the range. It's in the range. But I also think it's not as hot as people had thought." (CNBC's Squawk Box, 8/3/18)

The Economy Is "On Strong Footing" And "The Labor Market Has Continued To Strengthen And Economic Activity Has Been Rising At A Strong Rate." "For now, the economy is on strong footing. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged while offering an upbeat assessment of both the labor market and economy. The U.S. central bank said 'the labor market has continued to strengthen and economic activity has been rising at a strong rate.'" ("U.S. Jobless Claims Rise Modestly, Labor Market Firming," Reuters , 8/3/18)

The University Of Michigan's Justin Wolfers Praised The "Positive" Jobs Report Saying "The Economy Is Honking Along." "Payrolls +157k in July, with the unemployment rate edging back down to 3.9%. Revisions were very positive: May revised up from +244k to +268k, and June revised up from +213k to +248k. The economy is honking along." (Justin Wolfers, Twitter Feed , 8/3/18)

  • He Also Noted That "Over The Past Three Months, The Average Pace Of Job Growth Is +224k. That's Fast For This Stage Of The Cycle, And Suggestive Of An Uptick." "Wowser, those revisions are really something. In the context of the past 2 months, this month's +157k number is all the stronger. All told, over the past three months, the average pace of job growth is +224k. That's fast for this stage of the cycle, and suggestive of an uptick." (Justin Wolfers, Twitter Feed , 8/3/18)

The Washington Post's Heather Long Praised The Jobs Gain Saying It Was "A Decent Number This Late In Recovery." "BREAKING: U.S. economy adds 157,000 jobs in July -- below expectations but still a decent number this late in recovery. Unemployment rate falls to 3.9% (down from 4% in June) #jobs #economy" (Heather Long, Twitter Feed , 8/3/18)

The Jobs Market Has Continued To Grow Steadily As The Economy Expands. "The US unemployment rate fell to 3.9% and the economy added 157,000 jobs in July. Paychecks grew only slightly -- up 2.7% compared to the same time last year. The jobs market has continued to grow steadily as the economy expands." (Nathaniel Meyersohn, "The Unemployment Rate Fell To 3.9% In July," CNN , 8/3/18)

CONSUMERS REMAINED OPTIMISTIC IN JULY AS THEY REAP THE BENEFITS FROM GOP TAX CUTS

Consumers Are Feeling Good About The Economy, And Spending Has Increased Substantially Since The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act Passed, Driven By Increased Disposable Income From GOP Tax Cuts

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Increased To 127.4 In July. "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased marginally in July, following a modest decline in June. The Index now stands at 127.4 (1985=100), up from 127.1 in June. The Present Situation Index improved from 161.7 to 165.9, while the Expectations Index declined from 104.0 last month to 101.7 this month." ("Consumer Confidence Survey," The Conference Board , 7/31/18)

Consumer Spending Saw A "Solid" Increase In June . "U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in June as households spent more at restaurants and on accommodation, building a strong base for the economy heading into the third quarter, while inflation rose moderately." (Lucia Mutikani, "U.S. Consumer Spending Rises; Wage Growth Slows In Second-Quarter," Reuters , 7/31/18)

Spending Is Expected To Remain Strong This Year Driven By Increased Take Home Pay From The GOP Tax Cuts. "With savings at lofty levels and lower taxes increasing take-home pay for some workers, spending is likely to remain strong this year. Accelerating home prices, which are boosting wealth for some households, should also underpin consumption." (Lucia Mutikani, "U.S. Consumer Spending Rises; Wage Growth Slows In Second-Quarter," Reuters , 7/31/18)

Consumer Spending Is Strong, Supported By A Strong Labor Market And "A Lift To Disposable Income From The Tax Cuts." "For now, consumer confidence seems boosted by low unemployment, according to Morgan Stanley Research. 'Consumption remains supported by a strong labor market and a lift to disposable income from the tax cuts, although some of these benefits are being eroded by rising gasoline prices,' Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a note." (Irina Ivanova, "U.S. Second-Quarter GDP Growth Expected To Top 4%," CBS News , 7/26/18)

  • Thanks To The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act "Many Workers" Saw Increased Take Home Pay In The Second Quarter. "The tax cuts' cornerstone was a permanent reduction in business tax rates, giving corporate profits an instant boost on paper. They would have been solid by mid-April, when corporations' first-quarter tax payments are due. Many workers, too, saw slightly larger paychecks in February or March, with higher-earning workers reaping bigger benefits." (Irina Ivanova, "U.S. Second-Quarter GDP Growth Expected To Top 4%," CBS News , 7/26/18)

SMALL BUSINESSES CONTINUE TO THRIVE

Small Businesses' Optimism Remains Historically High Thanks To President Trump's Pro-Business Policies

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Remained At Historic Levels "Since December 2016, The Index Has Averaged An Unprecedented 105.4, Well Above The 45-Year Average Of 98." "The Small Business Optimism Index posted its sixth highest reading in survey history for the month of June, at 107.2, down 0.6 from May. Since December 2016, the Index has averaged an unprecedented 105.4, well above the 45-year average of 98 and rivaling the all-time high of 108.0 in July 1983." ("June 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index," National Federation Of Independent Businesses , 6/18)

  • Small Business Owners Continue To Be "Astounding[ly]" Optimistic Thanks To "Tax Cuts, Regulatory Reform, And Policies That Help Them Grow." "'Small business owners continue to report astounding optimism as they celebrate strong sales, the creation of jobs, and more profits,' said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan. 'The first six months of the year have been very good to small business thanks to tax cuts, regulatory reform, and policies that help them grow.'" ("June 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index," National Federation Of Independent Businesses , 6/18)

63% Of Owners Are Looking To Hire Additional Employees, "Up Five Points From Last Month And The Highest Level Since September 1999." "As reported in NFIB's June jobs report, 63 percent of owners reported hiring or trying to hire, up five points from last month and the highest level since September 1999. However, 55 percent (87 percent of those hiring or trying to hire) reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill." ("June 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index," National Federation Of Independent Businesses , 6/18)

MANUFACTURING CONTINUES ITS COMEBACK UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP

The Manufacturing Sector Has Thrived In 2018, And July Was No Exception

In July, The Nation Gained 37,000 Manufacturing Jobs . ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 8/3/18)

The Manufacturing Sector Has Thrived In 2018 And Continued To Do So In July, Adding 37,000 Jobs. "The manufacturing sector has been strong recently and gained another 37,000 jobs in July. 'We're not seeing any impact from trade tensions, as it's too early,' said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco. Makers of machinery, fabricated metals and electrical equipment have been among the most aggressive in hiring." (Nelson D Schwartz, "U.S. Added 157,000 Jobs In July; Unemployment Rate Slips To 3.9%," The New York Times , 8/3/18)

Blue Collar Industries Like Manufacturing "Grew Sharply" In July. "Hiring remained solid in most industries in July. Blue-collar jobs have grown sharply, with manufacturing adding 327,000 positions in the past year and construction adding 308,000. Transportation, mining and financial services did not hire much in July. Retail was also sluggish with just 7,000 job gains." (Heather Long, "U.S. Economy Adds 157,000 Jobs In July, Slightly Below Expectations," The Washington Post , 8/3/18)

 


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