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Blue-Collar Comeback

- April 19, 2018

Today's GDP By Industry Report Shows President Trump Is Growing Blue-Collar Jobs While Cutting The Size Of Government

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TOP TAKEAWAYS

  • A new report out today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the mining industry has grown as a percentage of the U.S. GDP under President Donald Trump.
    • The mining industry increased from 1.4 percent of U.S. GDP in 2016 to 1.7 percent of U.S. GDP in 2017, while real GDP itself increased 2.3 percent in 2017.
    • Under President Obama, the mining industry as a percentage of the U.S. GDP dropped from 2.7 percent to 1.4 percent and the mining and logging industry lost 115,000 jobs.
  • Mining's growth as a percentage of the GDP is further evidence of the resurgence of blue-collar jobs in America, which has seen 281,000 new manufacturing jobs, 76,000 new mining and logging jobs, and 328,000 new construction jobs since the beginning of 2017.
  • By repealing burdensome regulations and ending President Obama's "war on coal," President Trump has helped spark a rebound of blue-collar jobs while simultaneously cutting the size of government.
    • Government as a percentage of GDP has decreased from 12.9 percent to 12.7 percent and jobs in the federal government have decreased by 21,000 since the beginning of 2017.

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PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS MADE GOOD ON HIS CAMPAIGN PROMISE TO HELP THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY-AN INDUSTRY THAT SUFFERED UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA

Under President Obama, U.S. Manufacturing Suffered

During The Obama Administration, The Manufacturing Industry's Value Added, A Measure Of An Industries' Contribution To GDP, Declined From 12.3 Percent To 11.7 Percent. ("Value Added By Industry As A Percentage Of Gross Domestic Product," Bureau Of Economic Analysis , 11/2/17)

Under President Obama, The Nation Lost 192,000 Manufacturing Jobs. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 4/6/18)

As A Candidate, Donald Trump Promised To Keep More Manufacturing Jobs In America

On The Campaign Trail, Donald Trump Made A Pledge To "Restore Manufacturing In The United States." "President Donald Trump promised to revive manufacturing on the campaign trail. One year in, the industry is on the same trajectory as when he took office. 'My plan includes a pledge to restore manufacturing in the United States,' Trump said in a campaign rally in Detroit, Mich., on Oct. 31, 2016." (Manuela Tobias, "Upticks In Manufacturing Employment, Little Policy Progress," Politifact , 3/28/18)

  • One Of Trump's Most "Prominent" Campaign Promises Was That America Would Keep Manufacturing Jobs In America By Producing More Goods. "The White House declared this week 'Made in America' week, a distinction to promote one of President Trump's most prominent campaign promises: We'll produce more goods in this country to keep manufacturing jobs in America. Much of Trump's success in the 2016 election has been attributed to his effective communication of this economic message and his promise to bring back jobs to America's working class." (Allison Michaels, "Will Trump Bring Back American Manufacturing Jobs?," The Washington Post, 7/21/17)

President Trump Made Deregulation A Top Priority, Imposing Less Cost On Manufacturers Than His Predecessor

From 2009 Until 2015, The Obama Administration Issued 20,642 Rules That Cost An Estimated $107.7 Billion. (James Galluso, and Diane Katz, "Red Tape Rising 2016: Obama Regs Top $100 Billion Annually," The Heritage Foundation , 5/23/16)

  • In 2016 Alone, The Obama Administration Pushed For More Than 4,000 Regulations To Be Passed, Many Costing More Than $100 Million. "Nearly 4,000 regulations are squirming their way through the federal bureaucracy in the last year of Barack Obama's presidency - many costing industry more than $100 million - in a mad dash by the White House to push through government actions affecting everything from furnaces to gun sales to Guantánamo." (Timothy Noah, "Obama Pushing Thousands Of New Regulations In Year 8," Politico , 01/04/16)

The Trump Administration Is Imposing Less Regulations On The Manufacturing Industry And "Is Seeking To Eliminate Or Delay Several Major Regulations On Manufacturers That Were Issued By The Obama Administration." "In the aggregate, the Trump administration is issuing fewer major regulations on manufacturers than that of the Obama administration, and it is seeking to eliminate or delay several major regulations on manufacturers that were issued by the Obama administration." (Keith B. Belton, "Deregulation Under President Trump: Behind The Numbers," Industry Week , 3/8/18)

A Survey Of Manufacturers Found That 80 Percent Say The President's Actions On Regulations Are "Headed In The Right Direction." "In addition, 80 percent of manufacturers say the president's actions on regulations are headed in the right direction, with more than half of respondents saying those actions will allow them to expand operations, increase investment and add more workers." ("2017 Second Quarter Manufacturers' Outlook Survey," National Association Of Manufacturers , 7/20/17)

  • More Than Half Of Respondents Said The Actions Will "Allow Them To Expand Operations, Increase Investment, And Add More Workers." "In addition, 80 percent of manufacturers say the president's actions on regulations are headed in the right direction, with more than half of respondents saying those actions will allow them to expand operations, increase investment and add more workers." ("2017 Second Quarter Manufacturers' Outlook Survey," National Association Of Manufacturers , 7/20/17)

In His First 100 Days, President Trump And Republicans In Congress Utilized The Congressional Review Act To Reverse 14 Obama Era Regulations. "In his first 100 days, President Trump and congressional Republicans have repeatedly employed a once rarely used power granted to Congress to nullify rules recently adopted by federal agencies. Enacted in 1996, the Congressional Review Act gives Congress 60 legislative days to revoke rules with the help of the president. Before this year, it had only been used once; since Mr. Trump took office, lawmakers have used it to reverse 14 Obama-era rules." (Eric Lipton and Jasmine C. Lee, "Which Obama-Era Rules Are Being Reversed In The Trump Era," The New York Times , 5/18/17)

In July, The Trump Administration Announced That It Was Pulling Or Suspending 860 Regulations . "The Trump administration said it was pulling or suspending 860 pending regulations. Of those, 469 were being completely withdrawn. Another 391 were being set aside or reevaluated. These proposed regulations could be revisited at some point or dropped altogether." (Juliet Eliperin and Damian Paletta, "Trump Administration Cancels Hundreds Of Obama-Era Regulations," The Washington Post , 7/20/17)

U.S. Manufacturing Is Making A Comeback Under The Trump Administration

In 2017, The Nation Gained 207,000 Manufacturing Jobs, As Opposed To 2016 When The Industry Lost 9,000 Jobs. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 4/18/18)

Manufacturing Job Growth Has Accelerated In 2018, As The Nation Gained 74,000 Manufacturing Jobs So Far This Year, Compared With 49,000 Jobs During The Same Period In 2017 . ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 4/18/18)

According To A Report By Automatic Data Processing Inc., The Manufacturing Industry Increased This March By The Most The Industry Has Seen In Over Three Years. "Hiring at private U.S. employers grew more than expected in March, according to a report, as the manufacturing industry showed the strongest increase in more than three years. Firms across the country added 241,000 workers in March, according to payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. and forecasting firm Moody's Analytics." (Austen Hufford, "Manufacturing Industry Has Strongest Jobs Increase In Three Years," The Wall Street Journal , 4/4/18)

  • Manufacturing Represents 14 Percent Of Nonfarm Rural Jobs, Compared To Just 7 Percent In Urban Areas, And Represents 21 Percent Of Rural Earnings Compared To Just 11 Percent In Urban Areas. "Compared to urban areas, in 2015, manufacturing represented a greater share of both private nonfarm rural jobs (14 percent vs. 7 percent) and rural earnings (21 percent vs. 11 percent). A new report from USDA's Economic Research Service, Rural Manufacturing at a Glance, examines the manufacturing sector in rural America." (Sarah Low, "Manufacturing Is Relatively More Important To The Rural Economy Than The Urban Economy," U.S. Department Of Agriculture , 9/12/17)
  • Manufacturing Jobs In Rural Areas Also Pay Well, Only Mining Has Higher Median Earning Among All Rural Sectors . "Manufacturing jobs in rural areas totaled about 2.5 million jobs in 2015 and pay relatively well; among all rural sectors, only mining had higher median earnings." (Sarah Low, "Manufacturing Is Relatively More Important To The Rural Economy Than The Urban Economy," U.S. Department Of Agriculture , 9/12/17)

The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index Improved In March, Indicating The Strongest Improvement In Manufacturing Business Conditions Since March 2015. "The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit final U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) registered 55.6 in March, up from 55.3 in February. The latest PMI reading indicated the strongest improvement in manufacturing business conditions since March 2015. The average PMI reading over the opening three months of 2018 meanwhile indicated the best quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2014." (Press Release, "March PMI Indicates Strongest Manufacturing Growth For Three Years," Markit Economics , 4/2/18)

  • The Increase In The March Purchasing Managers Index "Signaled A Strong Overall Improvement In Operating Conditions Across The U.S. Manufacturing Sector." "March PMI survey data signaled a strong overall improvement in operating conditions across the U.S. manufacturing sector. Output and new orders continued to rise markedly, despite rates of growth softening slightly since February. Job creation also remained strong and backlogs of uncompleted work increased solidly as a result of the recent upturn in client demand. Business confidence about the year ahead meanwhile rose to the highest since February 2015." (Press Release, "March PMI Indicates Strongest Manufacturing Growth For Three Years," Markit Economics , 4/2/18)

Manufacturing Output Continued To Grow In March, And Thanks To Favorable Demand Conditions New Orders "Expanded Sharply." "Output levels at manufacturing firms continued to expand strongly in March. Although the rate of growth softened to a four-month low, the pace of expansion remained comfortably above the longrun series average. Panelists commonly reported that the latest rise was driven by firmer client demand. In a reflection of more favorable demand conditions, new orders received by manufacturers expanded sharply, despite growth edging down to a three-month low. Anecdotal evidence commonly attributed the upturn to the acquisition of new clients. Furthermore, new export orders continued to increase, extending the current sequence of expansion to eight months." (Press Release, "March PMI Indicates Strongest Manufacturing Growth For Three Years," Markit Economics , 4/2/18)

UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA, THE MINING INDUSTRY WAS DECIMATED

President Obama Implemented A Series Of Harmful Regulations That Would Have Dealt A King Hit To An Already Struggling Mining Industry

In July 2015, The Obama Administration Implemented New Standards That Would Regulate Coal Mining Practices, Prohibiting Mining Activities Near Streams. "The Obama administration Thursday unveiled new standards meant to better protect streams in Appalachia from the controversial mountaintop removal coal mining process. The proposed rule, from the Interior Department's Office of Surface Mining (OSM), would update three-decade-old standards that create a buffer zone around streams, prohibiting mining activities and waste from getting near them and harming the ecosystem." (Timothy Cama, "Obama Unveils New Coal Mining Rules," The Hill , 7/16/15)

  • Industry Leaders Slammed The New Rule As Part Of President Obama's "War On Coal." "Industry leaders immediately blasted the rule as part of President Obama's 'war on coal' and challenged the idea that the 1983 standards need updating." (Timothy Cama, "Obama Unveils New Coal Mining Rules," The Hill , 7/16/15)
  • According To The Congressional Research Service, The 2016 Stream Protection Rule Would Cost The Coal Industry $52 Million And 260 Jobs Annually. "In 2017, the Congressional Research Service determined the 2016 Stream Protection Rule would cost the coal industry $52 million annually, with 86% of this cost impacting surface mining operations; of the affected surface mines, 46% are in the Appalachian region. The impact of the rule was further estimated to raise the price of surface mined coal in Appalachia by 40 cents per ton and cost the industry ~260 jobs annually. The loss in mining jobs would be offset by the addition of ~250 mining regulatory and compliance jobs annually." ("Repeals The Stream Protection Rule, Which Imposed Greater Regulation On Mining Activities In The United States," Duke University, 11/10/17)

In 2015, President Barack Obama Announced The "Clean Power Plan" Targeting Pollution Created By Power Plants. "And today, we're here to announce America's Clean Power Plan -- a plan two years in the making, and the single most important step America has ever taken in the fight against global climate change. Right now, our power plants are the source of about a third of America's carbon pollution. That's more pollution than our cars, our airplanes and our homes generate combined. That pollution contributes to climate change, which degrades the air our kids breathe. But there have never been federal limits on the amount of carbon that power plants can dump into the air. Think about that. We limit the amount of toxic chemicals like mercury and sulfur and arsenic in our air or our water -- and we're better off for it. But existing power plants can still dump unlimited amounts of harmful carbon pollution into the air." (President Barack Obama, Remarks Announcing The Clean Power Plan , Washington, DC, 8/3/15)

  • The Repeal Of The Clean Power Plan Could Provide Up To $33 Billion In Savings From Compliance Costs In 2030. "The proposed repeal both examines the Obama administration's cost-benefit analysis, as well as provides insights to support an updated analysis of the environmental, health, and economic effects of the proposed repeal. The Trump administration estimates the proposed repeal could provide up to $33 billion in avoided compliance costs in 2030." ("EPA Takes Another Step To Advance President Trump's America First Strategy, Proposes Repeal Of 'Clean Power Plan,'" Environmental Protection Agency , 10/10/17)

Under President Obama, The Mining Industry Declined Sharply

Under President Obama, The Mining And Logging Industry Lost 115,000 Jobs . ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 4/18/18)

Under President Obama, Value Added For The Mining Industry, A Measure Of An Industries Contribution To GDP, Declined From 2.7 Percent To 1.4 Percent. ("Value Added By Industry As A Percentage Of Gross Domestic Product," Bureau Of Economic Analysis , 11/2/17)

PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS MADE ROLLING BACK JOB-KILLING REGULATIONS A PRIORITY SINCE HIS FIRST DAYS IN OFFICE

Then Candidate-Trump Promised To Restore The Coal Industry And Less Than A Month After His Inauguration, President Trump Began Rolling Back Obama Era Regulations On The Coal Industry

As A Candidate Donald Trump "Repeatedly Promised" To Revive The Coal Industry . "President-elect Donald Trump promised repeatedly throughout his campaign that he would revive the coal industry, billing himself as the "last shot for the miners." And in traditional mining areas-think parts of West Virginia, Kentucky and Pennsylvania-Trump defeated rival Hillary Clinton by large margins." (Justin Worland, "Donald Trump Says He'll Bring Back Coal. Here's Why He Can't," Time, 11/14/16)

  • On The Campaign Trail, Candidate Trump Vowed To "Put Miners Back To Work" By Repealing Harmful Obama-Era Regulations. "On the campaign trail, President Donald Trump responded to years of declining jobs in the coal industry with a vow to 'put miners back to work' by repealing Obama-era regulations. These regulations, Trump argued, were harming coal companies' ability to stay in business." (Allison Colburn, "Coal Industry Improves Slightly As Trump Rolls Back Regs," Politifact , 8/29/17)

In February 2017 President Trump Repealed The Stream Rule President Obama Implemented On Coal Mining Activated Near Streams. "In early February, the House and Senate voted to repeal the so-called 'stream protection rule' - using a regulation-killing tool known as the Congressional Review Act. On Thursday, President Trump signed the bill, which means the stream protection rule is now dead. Coal companies will have a freer hand in dumping mining debris in streams." (Brad Plumer, "Why Trump Just Killed A Rule Restricting Coal Companies From Dumping Waste In Streams," Vox , 2/16/17)

On March 28, 2017, President Trump Rolled Back President Obama's Clean Power Plan. "President Trump is expected to sign an executive order Tuesday [March 28 th] to roll back the Clean Power Plan rule, keeping a campaign vow to undo the Obama administration's aggressive attempts to reduce carbon emissions." (Ledyard King, "President Trump's Executive Order Will Undo Obama's Clean Power Plan Rule," USA Today , 3/27/17)

  • The Executive Order Promoted Energy Independence And Created Jobs. "The executive order, billed as a measure to promote 'energy independence' and create jobs, will target a slew of environmental measures aimed at combating climate change including the Clean Power Plan, the centerpiece of President Obama's global warming efforts." (Justin Worland, "President Trump Signs Executive Order Rolling Back Obama-Era Environmental Regulations," Time , 3/28/17)

UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP, THE MINING INDUSTRY HAS ROARED BACK

The Mining Industry Is Beginning To Thrive Again Under The Trump Administration

During President Trump's First Year In Office, Value Added, Which Is A Measure Of An Industries Contribution To GDP, For The Mining Industry Increased From 1.4 To 1.7 Percent. ("Value Added By Industry As A Percentage Of Gross Domestic Product," Bureau Of Economic Analysis , 11/2/17)

In 2017 The Mining And Logging Industries Added 52,000 Jobs, Compared To 2016 When The Industry Lost 99,000 Jobs. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 4/18/18)

Job Growth In The Mining And Logging Industry Has Accelerated In 2018 Adding 24,000 Jobs So Far, During The Same Period In 2017 The Industry Added 14,000 Jobs. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 4/18/18)

OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATORS SHOW TRUMP HAS SUCCEEDED IN GROWING THE U.S. ECONOMY WHILE SHRINKING THE SIZE OF GOVERNMENT

GDP Growth

Real GDP Increased By 2.3 Percent In 2017. "Real GDP increased 2.3 percent in 2017 (that is, from the 2016 annual level to the 2017 annual level), compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2016 (table 1)" ("National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2017," Bureau Of Economic Analysis , 3/28/18)

  • According To The Commerce Department, Second-Quarter 2017 GDP Growth Was 3.1 Percent, Its Fastest Pace In Two Years. "US economic growth in the second quarter was stronger than previously thought, according to the Commerce Department's third estimate of gross domestic product released Thursday. GDP, the value of everything produced in America, was revised up to an annualized growth rate of 3.1% from 3%. It was the fastest rate since the first quarter of 2015." (Akin Oyedele, "US Economic Growth Hits A 2-Year High On Strong Business And Consumer Spending," Business Insider , 9/28/17)
  • According To The Commerce Department, Third-Quarter 2017 GDP Growth Was 3.3 Percent, Its Fastest Rate In Three Years. "Led by a rise in business investment, the U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 3.3 percent from July through September, its fastest rate in three years. The Commerce Department estimated Wednesday that third-quarter growth exceeded the 3 percent annual expansion it had initially reported last month." (Paul Wiseman, "US Economy Expanded At Brisk 3.3 Percent Pace In Third Quarter," NBC News , 11/29/17)
  • GDP Increased By 2.9 Percent In The Fourth Quarter Of 2017. "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent." ("National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2017," Bureau Of Economic Analysis , 1/26/18)

The Construction Industry Was Strong In 2017, With Optimism High For 2018

In 2017, The U.S. Has Added 328,000 New Construction Jobs Since The Start Of 2017. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 4/18/18)

Construction Firms Are "Clearly" Looking To Expand Their Workforce, 75 Percent Said They Plan To Increase Payrolls In 2018 As Industry Optimism Hit A Record High At The End. "Construction firms are clearly looking to hire more workers. Three-quarters of them said they plan to increase payrolls in 2018, according to a new survey from the Associated General Contractors of America. Industry optimism for all types of construction, measured by the ratio of those who expected the market to expand versus those who expected it to contract, hit a record high." (Diana Olick, "By All Measures, A Construction Boom Is Shaping Up For 2018," CNBC , 1/5/18)

Stephen Sandherr, CEO Of The Associated General Contractors Of America Attributed The Optimism To A Booming Economy, Regulatory Reforms, And The Trump Administration's Infrastructure Policies. "'This optimism is likely based on current economic conditions, an increasingly business-friendly regulatory environment and expectations the Trump administration will boost infrastructure investments,' said Stephen Sandherr, the association's CEO." (Diana Olick, "By All Measures, A Construction Boom Is Shaping Up For 2018," CNBC , 1/5/18)

President Trump Has Already Curtailed Federal Government Employment

During President Trump's First Year In Office, Value Added, Which Is A Measure Of An Industries Contribution To GDP, For Government Services Declined From 12.9 To 12.7 Percent. ("Value Added By Industry As A Percentage Of Gross Domestic Product," Bureau Of Economic Analysis , 11/2/17)

Federal Government Employment Declined By 21,000 Jobs Since The Beginning Of 2017. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 4/18/18)


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