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Clinton’s Claimed “Victory” In Iowa Is Less Than It Seems

- February 4, 2016

Clinton Is Scrambling In New Hampshire, Reeling From Her Coin Flip "Victory" In Iowa

Clinton's "Uncertain Outcome In Iowa Dealt A Jolting Psychological Blow To The Clinton Campaign, Leaving Volunteers, Donors And Aides Confused" And "Crestfallen." "The uncertain outcome in Iowa dealt a jolting psychological blow to the Clinton campaign, leaving volunteers, donors and aides confused throughout the night, and then crestfallen." (Amy Chozick, Patrick Healy And Yamiche Alcindor, "Hillary Clinton And Bernie Sanders Intensify Efforts In New Hampshire After Iowa Standoff," The New York Times , 2/2/16)

  • Clinton's "Razor-Thin" Victory Over Sanders Has Started A "New Round Of Second-Guessing From Supporters." "Hillary Clinton emerged from Iowa with a razor-thin victory over Bernie Sanders - and a new round of nervous second-guessing from supporters." (Julie Pace And Lisa Lerer, "Clinton's Narrow Win Sparks Nervousness Among Supporters," The Associated Press, 2/2/16)
  • Clinton Is Going Into New Hampshire With A "Staggering Disadvantage" With Crucial Democrat Constituencies. "Topping the list of concerns is Clinton's staggering disadvantage with young voters, a crucial Democratic constituency that overwhelmingly sided with Sanders." (Julie Pace And Lisa Lerer, "Clinton's Narrow Win Sparks Nervousness Among Supporters," The Associated Press, 2/2/16)
  • Clinton Supporters Are Worried That This Is 2008 All Over Again. "Clinton supporters are also worried that the campaign is still struggling with a muddled message, a problem that plagued her not only in the opening months of this campaign but also in her failed 2008 White House bid." (Julie Pace And Lisa Lerer, "Clinton's Narrow Win Sparks Nervousness Among Supporters," The Associated Press , 2/2/16)

The Absence Of A "Clear Political Triumph" In Iowa Caucuses Has Put Clinton In An Unexpected Position In New Hampshire. "The absence of a clear political triumph in Iowa put both Democratic candidates in unexpected positions coming into New Hampshire." (Amy Chozick, Patrick Healy And Yamiche Alcindor, "Hillary Clinton And Bernie Sanders Intensify Efforts In New Hampshire After Iowa Standoff," The New York Times , 2/2/16)

The Washington Post Headline: "Clinton Wins At Least Six Iowa Precincts By Coin Flip" (Jenny Stars And Justin Moyer, "Clinton Wins At Least Six Iowa Precincts By Coin Flip," The Washington Post , 2/2/16)

Clinton Is Heading Into New Hampshire "Without The Benefit Of A Momentum Surge From Iowa." "Mrs. Clinton had a victory speech written for delivery on Monday night in Des Moines, in which she would have virtually ignored Mr. Sanders and attacked the Republican candidates. News organizations did not declare her the winner until midday Tuesday. While she said she was 'thrilled' with the result, Mrs. Clinton was now preparing to use a televised town-hall forum on Wednesday night and a televised debate on Thursday night to draw pointed contrasts with Mr. Sanders and to try to win over New Hampshire voters next Tuesday without the benefit of a momentum surge from Iowa." (Amy Chozick, Patrick Healy And Yamiche Alcindor, "Hillary Clinton And Bernie Sanders Intensify Efforts In New Hampshire After Iowa Standoff," The New York Times , 2/2/16)

Despite A Celebratory Atmosphere Put Forward By The Clinton Campaign, They Know That "Iowa Was A Serious Setback." "Per a Dem insider following conversations with senior Hillary Clinton campaign staffers: "Despite the celebratory atmosphere put forward for public consumption, Bill, Hillary and the top campaign team know that Iowa was a serious setback. They now face a well-funded opponent who is poised to win in NH & likely do better than expected in SC & Nevada." (Ben White, "Clinton-Land Mind-Meld," Politico, 2/3/16)

Sanders Is Leading Clinton In New Hampshire, And The Closeness Of The Iowa Caucuses Is Playing To Sanders Favor

Sanders Holds A Double-Digit Lead In New Hampshire Over Clinton. "The Clinton campaign had considered shifting its focus to Nevada and South Carolina, which hold nominating contests later in February. But Mrs. Clinton, with the strong support of former President Bill Clinton, decided she would help herself more by closing the gap in New Hampshire, where polls show Mr. Sanders with a double-digit lead." (Amy Chozick, Patrick Healy And Yamiche Alcindor, "Hillary Clinton And Bernie Sanders Intensify Efforts In New Hampshire After Iowa Standoff," The New York Times , 2/2/16)

New Hampshire Polls Have Shown That Young Democrats Are "Deeply Skeptical Of Mrs. Clinton's Honesty And View Her Unfavorably." "Clinton advisers said there were no plans for Mrs. Clinton to turn sharply negative against Mr. Sanders, but rather she planned to focus on courting young voters and liberals, the two parts of the electorate that overwhelmingly favored Mr. Sanders in Iowa. New Hampshire polls have shown that many young Democrats here are deeply skeptical of Mrs. Clinton's honesty and view her unfavorably." (Amy Chozick, Patrick Healy And Yamiche Alcindor, "Hillary Clinton And Bernie Sanders Intensify Efforts In New Hampshire After Iowa Standoff," The New York Times , 2/2/16)

The "Virtual Tie" Between Sanders And Clinton Is Playing To Sanders Favor. "Mr. Sanders had hoped to unnerve Mrs. Clinton by eking out a win in Iowa, and instead found himself trying to spin gold out of his "virtual tie" with her in the caucuses. Yet he and his advisers welcomed the sudden prospect of increased competition from Mrs. Clinton here because it played into the expectations game as the Sanders campaign would like to play it." (Amy Chozick, Patrick Healy And Yamiche Alcindor, "Hillary Clinton And Bernie Sanders Intensify Efforts In New Hampshire After Iowa Standoff," The New York Times , 2/2/16)


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