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Credit For What?

- October 29, 2015

Clinton Argues Obama Doesn't Get Enough Credit On The Economy And Rates His Performance An "A," But Given Weak Growth In The 3rd Quarter, Does He Really Deserve More Credit?


TOP TAKEAWAYS

  • Today's U.S. 3rd Quarter GDP of 1.5 percent is just the latest sign the Clinton-Obama Economy is not working for Americans.
  • Under the Clinton-Obama economy the middle-class is disappearing, incomes continue to fall, wages remain stagnant, millions aren't working or are underemployed, and more Americans are living in poverty.
  • A majority of Americans disapprove of the Clinton-Obama economy, and along with many economists, fear the worst is yet to come.
  • Clinton however, thinks that current U.S. economic conditions are "indisputable evidence" that a Democrat in the White House is best for the economy.

In An Interview With The Boston Globe, Clinton Gave The Obama Administration An "A" For Its Overall Performance, Adding "I Don't Think He Gets The Credit He Deserves For Saving Our Economy." . HILLARY CLINTON: "I'd give him an 'A.' I don't think he gets the credit he deserves for saving our economy from falling into a great depression, for saving the auto industry which represents millions of jobs up and down the supply chain, for beginning the crackdown on Wall Street abuses with Dodd-Frank, for getting the Affordable Care Act passed, for really being as responsive as he could possibly be given the obstructionism that he faced with the Republicans in Congress." (Hillary Clinton Interview With The Boston Globe, 10/17/15)

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DISSAPOINTING NEWS FROM THE 3RD QUARTER GDP IS JUST THE "LATEST WORRYING SIGN" FOR MANY AMERICAN'S AND ECONOMISTS WHO ARE CONCERNED THE WORST IS YET TO COME

Today, We Learned The U.S. 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product Grew At Just 1.5 Percent. (Bureau Of Economic Analysis, 10/29/15)

The "Unspectacular" 3rd Quarter GDP Is "The Latest Worrying Sign That The Economic Expansion May Be Fizzling." "Still, the unspectacular overall growth is the latest worrying sign that the economic expansion may be fizzling. The reading comes in the same quarter employers slowed their hiring after 18 months of adding an average of more than 200,000 jobs per month." (Eric Morath and David Harrison, U.S. Economic Growth Cools in Third Quarter," The Wall Street Journal, 10/29/15)\

The 3rd Quarter GDP Report Is Just The Latest Sign "America's Economy Is Getting Slugged Left And Right" "America's economy is getting slugged left and right. The U.S. economy only grew 1.5% between July and September, according to the Commerce Department. Growth slowed a lot compared to a pace of 3.9% in the second quarter this year." (Patrick Gillespie, "U.S. Economy Only Grows 1.5% As Global Slowdown Hits," CNN , 10/29/15)

Falling Short Of Estimates, U.S. Economic Growth Expanded At The "Slower Pace" Of 1.5 Percent In The 3rd Quarter. "The economy in the U.S. expanded at a slower pace in the third quarter as companies took advantage of gains in consumer and business spending to reduce bloated stockpiles. Gross domestic product grew at a 1.5 percent annual rate, in line with the 1.6 percent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, Commerce Department data showed Thursday in Washington." (Michelle Jamrisko, "Economic Growth in U.S. Cools as Companies Rein in Inventories," Bloomberg, 10/29/15)

Compared With Last Year's 3rd Quarter GDP, This Quarter Represents The "Slowest Year-Over-Year Advance" Since Early 2014. "From a year earlier, the economy advanced 2% in the third quarter. That represents the slowest year-over-year advance since the first quarter of 2014 and showed the economy remained locked into a modest growth rate as the expansion entered its seventh year this summer." (Eric Morath and David Harrison, U.S. Economic Growth Cools in Third Quarter," The Wall Street Journal, 10/29/15)

Under Clinton-Obama Policies, American's Attitudes About The Economy Continue To Get Worse

A Majority Of Americans Disapprove Of President Obama's Handling Of The Economy At 52 Percent. (AP/GfK Poll, 1,027 A, 3.3% MoE, 10/15-19/15)

A Majority Of Americans Believe Our Economy Is Doing Poorly At 54 Percent. (AP/GfK Poll, 1,027 A, 3.3% MoE, 10/15-19/15)

"Just 36 Percent Think The Country Is Heading In The Right Direction, While 63 Percent Think It's Headed In The Wrong Direction." (AP/GfK Poll, 1,027 A, 3.3% MoE, 10/15-19/15)

More Americans Believe The Economy Has Gotten Worse Rather Than Better 21-17 Percent. (AP/GfK Poll, 1,027 A, 3.3% MoE, 10/15-19/15)

32 Percent Of Americans Believe The Economy Will Get Worse Over The Course Of The Next Year. (AP/GfK Poll, 1,027 A, 3.3% MoE, 10/15-19/15)

Economists Are Already Worried About The Potential For An Upcoming Clinton-Obama Recession

A "Growing Chorus Of Prominent Economists And Analysts" Are Arguing That A U.S. Recession Could Happen Within The Next Two Years. "A growing chorus of prominent economists and analysts are arguing those dynamics could tip the world -- and the United States along with it -- into recession within the next two years. The fear is showing up in the recent wild swings in financial markets, rare outside of broader economic downturns." (Ylan Q. Mui, "Economists Are Starting To Warn About The Risk Of A New U.S. Recession," The Washington Post , 10/23/15)

Federal Reserve Policymakers Have Recently "Downgraded" Its Forecast For GDP Growth In Both 2016 And 2017. "The median projection of the 17 policymakers showed the Fed expects the economy to grow 2.1 percent this year, slightly faster than previously thought. However, its forecasts for GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 were downgraded." (Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir, "Global Economy Worries Prompt Fed To Hold Rates Steady," Reuters, 9/17/15)

Chris Williamson Of The Financial Information Services Firm, Markit, Said The Federal Reserve Has Become "More Dovish" Towards The U.S. Economic Outlook. " 'The Fed has become more dovish, with growth projections revised down amid rumblings of 'secular stagnation.' But there's a clear signal that, in the absence of any serious derailing of the economy, rates will rise before the year is out,' said Chris Williamson of financial information services firm Markit." (Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir, "Global Economy Worries Prompt Fed To Hold Rates Steady," Reuters, 9/17/15)

But Clinton Continues To Praise The Obama Economy And Thinks Obama's Tenure Is "Pretty Indisputable" Evidence A Democrat Should Be President

Clinton Touts Obama's Tenure As "Pretty Indisputable" Evidence That "Having A Democrat In White House Is Good For The Economy." HILLARY CLINTON: "I think it's pretty indisputable that having a democrat in the White House is good for our economy, better for our economy that the alternative. I think my husband understood that and produced. I think President Obama inherited a really big and dangerous mess and has, you know, been able to get us out of that ditch." (CNN's "Situation Room With Wolf Blitzer," 9/17/15)

During A Recent Interview Clinton Praised Obama As Having "Been Able To Get Us Out Of That Ditch" When Referring To The Impact Of The Economic Recession. HILLARY CLINTON: "I think it's pretty indisputable that having a democrat in the White House is good for our economy, better for our economy that the alternative. I think my husband understood that and produced. I think President Obama inherited a really big and dangerous mess and has, you know, been able to get us out of that ditch." (CNN's "Situation Room With Wolf Blitzer," 9/17/15)

Clinton Has Said Obama "Doesn't Get The Credit He Deserves" For His Work On The U.S. Economy. HILLARY CLINTON: "Ok, fast forward. President Obama gets elected. He inherits the worst financial crisis since The Great Depression, handed to him by his republican predecessor. We were losing 800,000 jobs a month and we were on the brink of something even worse happening. We could have fallen into a great depression, not just a great recession. So what does President Obama have to do? He had to fix the mess he inherited, which he did. He doesn't get the credit he deserves from preventing us from going even deeper into that ditch in the economy. So, now we're are back to standing, but we are not yet running." (Hillary Clinton, Remarks At New Hampshire Town Hall, 9/18/15)

IN THE CLINTON-OBAMA ECONOMY AMERICANS HAVE WATCHED THEIR INCOMES FALL, FORCING MANY INTO POVERTY

"If The Country Were A Hospital Patient, Its Doctors Might Want To Try Another Course Of Treatment ." "If the country were a hospital patient, its doctors might want to try another course of treatment. The recession's impact continues to linger across the country, despite an improvement in a number of economic measures such as job creation, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau." (Aimee Picchi, "America's Quagmire: Stubborn Poverty And Slumping Income," CBS, 9/16/15)

  • CBS News Headline: "America's Quagmire: Stubborn Poverty And Slumping Income ." (Aimee Picchi, "America's Quagmire: Stubborn Poverty And Slumping Income," CBS, 9/16/15)

"Substantially Less Money" Is The New American Reality Under The Clinton-Obama Regime

Middle-Income American Families "Make Substantially Less Money" In Inflation Adjusted Terms Than Years Ago And "There Is No Evidence That Is Reversing." "A middle-income American family, in other words, makes substantially less money in inflation-adjusted terms than it did 15 years ago. And there is no evidence that is reversing." (Neil Irwin, "Why Americans Still Think The Economy Is Terrible," The New York Times, 9/16/15)

Stagnant Incomes "Were A Problem In 2013," Have "Remained So In 2014" And Evidence "So Far Suggests Nothing About That Is Changing In 2015." "Stagnant incomes were a problem in 2013. They remained so in 2014. The evidence we have so far suggests nothing about that is changing in 2015. That is the reality shaping the backdrop to the 2016 presidential campaign, the Federal Reserve's interest rate debates and the dinnertime table conversations about the state of the economies in families across the United States." (Neil Irwin, "Why Americans Still Think The Economy Is Terrible," The New York Times, 9/16/15)

American Household Incomes "Lost Ground" Last Year, In A Sign The U.S. Economic Expansion "Has Not Led To Gains For Many Americans" Since The End Of The 2007-2009 Recession. "American household incomes lost ground last year and the poverty rate ticked up, the U.S. Census Bureau said on Wednesday, in a sign the U.S. economic expansion has not led to gains for many Americans five years after the 2007-2009 recession." (Susan Heavey, "U.S. Household Incomes Slip, Poverty Rate Up Slightly In 2014," Reuters, 9/16/15)

  • The "Depressing Data" On Middle-Class Wages Is "True Across Almost All Groups Based On Race And Age." "The depressing data on middle-class wages is true across almost all groups based on race and age." (Neil Irwin, "Why Americans Still Think The Economy Is Terrible," The New York Times, 9/16/15)

The Median Household Income In The U.S. Fell $805, Or 1.5 Percent, From $54,462 In 2013 To $53,657 2014. (Census, Accessed 9/16/15)

During The Obama Administration, Median Household Income Has Fallen $1,656, From $55,313 In 2008 To $ 53,657 In 2014 . (Census, Accessed 9/16/15)

As Incomes Remain Depressed, Poverty Has Increased

The Poverty Rate Remained The Same In 2014, After Falling In 2013 For Only The First Time During The Obama Administration. "In 2013, the poverty rate fell for the first time since 2006, while inequality hovered at the highest it has been since at least the 90s." (Amy Goldstein, Jeff Guo and Lazaro Gamio, "Number Of Americans Without Health Insurance Falls As Income And Poverty Rate Stay Level," The Washington Post , 9/16/15)

About 46.7 Million Americans Were Living In Poverty Last Year. "Around 14.8% of Americans, or 46.7 million individuals, were living in poverty last year, unchanged from 2013." (Nick Timiraos, "U.S. Income Edged Lower In 2014," The Wall Street Journal, 9/16/15)

The Poverty Rate Has Increased By 1.6 Percentage Points Under Obama, From 13.2 Percent In 2008 To 14.8 Percent In 2014. (Census, Accessed 9/16/15)

  • Poverty Rate Stayed At 14.8 Percent From 2013 To 2014. (Census, Accessed 9/16/15)

The Black Poverty Rate Increased By 1.5 Percentage Points Under Obama, From 24.7 In 2008 To 26.2 Percent In 2014. (Census, Accessed 9/16/15)

  • Black Poverty Increased By 1 Percentage Point, From 25.2 Percent In 2013 To 26.2 Percent In 2014. (Census, Accessed 9/16/15)

A "GROWING SENSE OF UNEASE AMERICANS HAVE ABOUT THEIR FUTURE" IS A RESULT OF OBAMA'S STAGNANT WAGES AND DEPRESSED WORKFORCE

Stagnant Wages Contribute To A "Growing Sense Of Unease Americans Have About Their Future." "That's a much more frightening prospect -- for Main Street, Wall Street and the Federal Reserve. It contributes to a growing sense of unease Americans have about their future and makes it harder to set economic policy." (Heather Long, "Will We Ever Get Higher Wages?" CNN, 9/21/15)

Wages Have "Continued A Long Stagnation," Which Shows Why "So Many Americans Feel That They Have Not Experienced A Major Improvement In Their Economic Prospects." "Meanwhile, wages continued a long stagnation, with the median household income remaining at $53,657, effectively the same, after adjusting for inflation, as the year before, showing why so many Americans feel that they have not experienced a major improvement in their economic prospects." (Amy Goldstein, Jeff Guo and Lazaro Gamio, "Number Of Americans Without Health Insurance Falls As Income And Poverty Rate Stay Level," The Washington Post , 9/16/15)

Wage Inflation Is Around 2 Percent, The Same It Has Been Throughout The Entire Recovery. "It's not anymore, though. Wage inflation is stuck at the same 2 percent it's been the whole recovery, well below the 3.5 to 4 percent it would be in a normal economy-the implication being that this is not one." (Matt O' Brien, "Excited About An Upcoming Raise? Don't Be." The Washington Post, 8/4/15)

  • In A "Normal Economy" Wage Inflation Would Around 3.5 To 4 Percent. "It's not anymore, though. Wage inflation is stuck at the same 2 percent it's been the whole recovery, well below the 3.5 to 4 percent it would be in a normal economy-the implication being that this is not one." (Matt O' Brien, "Excited About An Upcoming Raise? Don't Be."The Washington Post, 8/4/15)

Obama's Underemployed Workforce And Misleading Unemployment Rate Has Not Helped Wages Rise

"Shadow Unemployment" Has Put "Significant Pressure On Wages" Because The Unemployment Figure "Isn't Really As Low As It Looks." "And it turns out that they put significant downward pressure on wages, too. In other words, it isn't a mystery why wages haven't started to rise like they normally do when unemployment get this low, because unemployment isn't really as low as it looks." (Matt O' Brien, "Excited About An Upcoming Raise? Don't Be." The Washington Post, 8/4/15)

Despite An "Official" Unemployment Figure Of 5.1 Percent, "Millions Of Americans Still Say They Are Underemployed And Wages Have Shown Few Signs Of Sustained Increases." "While the official unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1%, millions of Americans still say they are underemployed and wages have shown few signs of sustained increases. Labor-force participation rates are expected to remain close to their current level, the lowest since the late 1970s, as tens of thousands of baby boomers reach retirement age every day." (Nick Timiraos, "U.S. Income Edged Lower In 2014," The Wall Street Journal, 9/16/15)

  • Labor Force Participation Rate Is "Expected To Remain Close" To Its Current Level, "The Lowest Since The Late 1970s." "While the official unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1%, millions of Americans still say they are underemployed and wages have shown few signs of sustained increases. Labor-force participation rates are expected to remain close to their current level, the lowest since the late 1970s, as tens of thousands of baby boomers reach retirement age every day." (Nick Timiraos, "U.S. Income Edged Lower In 2014," The Wall Street Journal, 9/16/15)

The Current Economic Cycle "Seems To Have Broken" With The Theory That A Lower Unemployment Rate Results In Higher Wages. "Unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2010, its worst level in a quarter century. Now it's 5.1%. Many experts said once unemployment fell to 5.5% -- as it did in February -- wages would pick up within months. But the current economic cycle seems to have broken with that theory, even though some economists and the Fed don't want to acknowledge it." (Heather Long, "Will We Ever Get Higher Wages?" CNN, 9/21/15)

THE IMPACT OF OBAMA'S ECONOMY HAS LED TO A DISSAPEARING MIDDLE-CLASS

The U.S. Economy "Has Yet To Recover The Jobs Lost During The Recession" In The Middle Third Income Bracket. "According to a study released Monday by Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce, the U.S. economy now has about 1 million more jobs in occupations that rank in the top third of income and 800,000 more in the bottom third. The middle third, however, has yet to recover the jobs lost during the recession." (Josh Zumbrun, "Post Recession Job Growth Coming In High-Wage Positions," The Wall Street Journal, 8/17/15)

  • Middle-Wage Occupations "Have Collapsed" Under Obama, With 900,000 Fewer Workers Since Before He Took Office. "Meanwhile, many middle-wage occupations, those with average earnings between $32,000 and $53,000, have collapsed. Jobs in the middle include traditionally blue-collar occupations such as truck drivers, welders and auto mechanics. There are 900,000 fewer workers in these occupations than there were before the recession, the report finds." (Josh Zumbrun, "Post Recession Job Growth Coming In High-Wage Positions," The Wall Street Journal, 8/17/15)

Middle-Class Jobs, That "Once Provided A Stable Living For Those With Less Education," Have "Been Replaced With Low-Wage Work." "But middle-skilled jobs, which once provided a stable living for those with less education, have been replaced with low-wage work. Occupations at the growing bottom earn less than $32,000 on average. Only one-third have health insurance and only one-quarter have retirement benefits." (Josh Zumbrun, "Post Recession Job Growth Coming In High-Wage Positions,"The Wall Street Journal, 8/17/15)

  • "The Wallets Of America's Middle Class And Poorest Aren't Seeing Any Extra Money. " "The wallets of America's middle class and poorest aren't seeing any extra money, the U.S. Census reported Wednesday, a financial stagnation experts say may be fueling political dissent this campaign season." (Jesse J Holland, "Census: Income, Poverty Numbers Stay Just About The Same," ABC, 9/16/15)

Without Stronger U.S. Economic Growth The "Middle Class Could Shrink And Poor Would Be Even Worse Off." "What's at stake is the very future of America. Without faster growth the U.S. can't create enough jobs for those who want to them, and Americans will have to get used to much smaller increases in their paychecks. The middle class could shrink and poor would be even worse off." (Jeffry Bartash, "Go-Go Economy Becomes So-So Economy: U.S. Faces Dimmer Future Absent Big Fixes," MarketWatch, 8/4/15)

As Underemployed Americans Are Forced To Dedicated More Of Their Incomes To Rent, Middle-Class Home Ownership Is Increasingly Out Of Reach

As U.S. Renters Dedicate More Of Their Incomes To Rent, The Housing Sector Is "Struggling To Produce Profitable Housing That Is Affordable To Lower- And Moderate -Income Families." "The situation could have significant policy implications. Renters who are severely cost-burdened-meaning they pay more than 50% of their incomes in rent-often require federal subsidies to find an affordable place to live. The private sector is struggling to produce profitable housing that is affordable to lower- and moderate-income families, while many federal housing subsidies have been cut in recent years." (Laura Kusisto, "Renters Will Continue To Struggle For The Next Decade, Harvard Study Sayas," The Wall Street Journal , 9/21/15)

  • This Year The U.S. Homeownership Rate Hit A 48-Year Low Dropping To 63.4 Percent. "The homeownership rate hit a 48-year low, according to estimates published Tuesday by the Commerce Department, declining to 63.4% in the second quarter from 64.7% in the year-earlier period." (Jeffrey Sparshott, "Rising Rents Outpace Wages In Wide Swaths Of The U.S.," The Wall Street Journal, 7/28/15)

Millennials Are "Expected To Grow And Continue To Rent In Large Numbers To Prior Generations" Since Many "Were Unemployed Or Underemployed During The Early Years Of Their Careers." "Millennials-the population currently in their mid-20s and early 30s-are also expected to grow and continue to rent in larger numbers than prior generations. Many of those young adults entered the job market during and after the recession, meaning many were unemployed or underemployed for crucial early years of their careers, and are more likely to struggle to afford housing, the report says." (Laura Kusisto, "Renters Will Continue To Struggle For The Next Decade, Harvard Study Sayas," The Wall Street Journal , 9/21/15)

At The Current Pace Of The U.S. Economy, The Urban Institute Research Predicts U.S. Home Ownership Will Be As Low As 61.3 Percent In 2030. "It won't reverse when the housing collapse fades from memory, nor as the economy picks back up. In fact, according to a new projection from the Urban Institute, homeownership in America will likely keep falling all the way out to 2030. It will fall for the young and the middle-aged, for blacks and for whites. By 2030, Urban predicts, the U.S. homeownership rate will be as low as 61.3 percent - a number we haven't seen in half a century." (Emily Badger, "Why The Homeownership Rate Will Keep Falling - And Falling, And Falling," The Washington Post , 6/16/15)


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