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Giant Leaps And Failed Promises

- November 8, 2011

Despite More Promises, Obama’s Jobs Act Won’t Save Him From Facing Election Day With The Worst Jobs Record Of Any Modern President

FACING RECORD ELECTION YEAR UNEMPLOYMENT, OBAMA IS BUSY MAKING BIG JOBS PROMISES BUT REPORTS SHOW THAT HIS GUARANTEES ARE JUST MORE WORDS

The Washington Post’s Fact Checker: “Unless The Economy Turns Around In The Next 18 Months, Obama Is On Track To Have The Worst Jobs Record Of Any President In The Modern Era. That Would Be An Accurate Statement.” (Glenn Kessler, “Rick Perry’s Claim That Obama Has ‘Killed More Jobs’ Than Any Other President,” The Washington Post’s “The Fact Checker,” 8/22/11)

  • BLS’ October Report “Suggests That President Barack Obama Will Likely Face The Voters With The Highest Unemployment Rate Of Any Postwar President.” “The report suggests that President Barack Obama will likely face the voters with the highest unemployment rate of any postwar president.”  (“U.S. Employers Add 80,000 Jobs In October, Unemployment Rate Dips Slowly,” The Associated Press, 11/4/11)

“It’s A Near-Certainty That The Economy — Measured In Political Terms By The Unemployment Rate — Won’t Have Recovered In Any Meaningful Way By November 2012.” (Chris Cilliza and Aaron Blake, “President Obama And The Old College Try,” The Washington Post, 11/7/11)

  •  “The Figures Mean Obama Will Probably Be Saddled With High Unemployment Through The 2012 Elections.” “The figures mean Obama will probably be saddled with high unemployment through the 2012 elections — if he wins he will be the first since Franklin Roosevelt to capture the nation's top office with at least an 8 percent jobless rate.” (Vicki Needham, “Economy Adds 80,000 Jobs; Unemployment Falls To 9 Percent,” The Hill, 11/4/11)

Reports Show That The White House Predictions Made “Giant Leaps” And Americans Will See Continued High Unemployment Through The Election

In August, Obama Predicted That His Jobs Plan Could Add Half a Million To A Million Jobs. “Still, Obama on Wednesday predicted his plan could push the economy to grow 1 percent to 1.5 percent faster. ‘That could mean half a million to a million additional jobs,’ he said Tuesday in an interview with radio talk show host Tom Joyner.” (Jim Kuhnenn, “Obama Looks To Spur Private Sector Hiring,” The Associated Press, 8/31/11)

The Associated Press Fact Check: “In Estimating The Potential Number Of Jobs That Could Be Lost And How Many His Plan Could Save, The White House Makes Giant Leaps.” (Kimberly Hefling, “FACT CHECK: Jobs Plan Makes Many Assumptions,” The Associated Press, 10/11/11)

 “The Congressional Budget Office Said The Bill Might Not Deliver A Quick Jolt To The Economy.” “But the Congressional Budget Office said the bill might not deliver a quick jolt to the economy because the transportation money would be disbursed gradually, with less than 10 percent being spent in the first year and more than 30 percent from 2016 to 2021. ‘Historically,’ the budget office said in an analysis of Mr. Obama’s proposal, ‘money appropriated for highway and transit projects is spent at a slow rate in the first year and has a long spending ‘tail’; funds provided in a particular year are usually spent over a period of six to eight years.’” (Robert Pear, “Defiict Committee Could Seek More Time, A Top Democrat Says,” The New York Times, 11/2/11)

FackCheck.org: Economists Estimate The Jobs Bill Could Save Or Create 288,000 Jobs Over Two Years, Not The 2 Million Obama Claims. “President Obama exaggerates when he claims ‘independent economists’ say his jobs bill ‘would create nearly 2 million jobs.’ The median estimate in a survey of 34 economists showed 288,000 jobs could be saved or created over two years under the president’s plan.” (Eugene Kiely and Robert Farley, “Obama’s Spin On Jobs Bill,” Fact Check, 10/19/11)

In Another Failed Promise, President Obama Said That The First Stimulus Bill Would Lift Two Million Americans Out Of Poverty. OBAMA: “And it's a plan that rewards responsibility, lifting 2 million Americans from poverty by ensuring that anyone who works hard does not have to raise a child below the poverty line. So as a whole, this plan will help poor and working Americans pull themselves into the middle class in a way we haven't seen in nearly 50 years.” (President Barack Obama, Remarks At The Signing Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Act, Denver, CO, 2/17)

However, Since President Obama Took Office, 6.3 Million Americans Have Fallen Into Poverty. (Press Release, “Income, Poverty And Health Insurance Coverage In The United States: 2010,” U.S. Census Bureau, 9/13/11)

  •   In 2010, The Number Of Americans Living In Poverty (46.2 Million) Reached The Highest Level On Record. (Press Release, “Income, Poverty And Health Insurance Coverage In The United States: 2010,” U.S. Census Bureau, 9/13/11)

BLS Commissioner Says, At This Pace, Unemployment Might “Never” Return To Pre-Recession Levels

Bureau Of Labor Statistics Commissioner Said Rate Of Job Creation Means Country May “Never” Return To Pre-Recession Employment Levels. REP. KEVIN BRADY (R-TX): “Commissioner, at this monthly rate of net 80,000 job growth, how long would it take for us to return to the unemployment levels before the recession?” BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS’ COMMISSIONER KEITH HALL: “Well, the short answer is never. To keep up with just the population growth, you probably need – my estimate is around 130,000 jobs. So at 80,000, you’re not quite even keeping up with population, so in fact over a long time period, you might even see the unemployment rate edge back up.” (Joint Economic Committee, Hearing,, 11/4/11)

AS OBAMA TRAVELS TO PHILADEPHIA TO SELL STIMULUS 2.0, PENNSYLVANIANS ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE HANGOVER FROM THE FIRST ONE

Since President Obama Took Office, Pennsylvania Has Lost 37,100 Jobs And The Unemployment Rate Has Increased From 6.8 Percent To 7.2 Percent. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 11/7/11)

Since President Obama Took Office, 189,790 Pennsylvanians Have Fallen Into Poverty And The Poverty Rate Has Increased From 12.3 Percent To 13.4 Percent. (“"Income, Poverty And Health Insurance In The United States: 2010," US Census Bureau, September 2011; “Poverty 2008 and 2009, American Community Survey,” US Census Bureau, September 2010”)

  • Pennsylvania Ranks Worst For Disconnected Youth, Which Is Directly Related To Poverty. “A study released Wednesday shows that Pennsylvania and West Virginia tie for worst in the nation in disconnected youth, a major contributor to poverty. In each state, 15 percent of people aged 16 to 19 are neither in school nor the workforce.” (Drew Singer, “Poverty Indicators Show PA. Has Work To Do,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 10/27/11)
  • The Percentage Of Households Receiving Public Assistance Also Increased. “Pennsylvania also experienced a statistically significant increase of .4 percent in the number of households receiving public assistance. At 3.7 percent, Pennsylvania ranks eighth among states with the highest percentage of households receiving public assistance.” (Catherine Cloutier, “Census Bureau: Poverty In Pa. Up 1 Percent,” Erie Time-News, 10/24/11)

Since President Obama Took Office, The Median Household Income In Pennsylvania Has Fallen $1,425 From $50,713 In 2008 To $29,288 In 2010. (American Community Survey, US Census Bureau, Accessed 11/7/11)

Since The First Stimulus Was Passed, Pennsylvania Has Lost 20,600 Jobs And The Unemployment Rate Has Increased From 7.2 Percent To 8.3 Percent. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/21/11)

Since The First Stimulus Passed, Pennsylvania Has Lost 16,800 Construction Jobs And 27,300 Manufacturing Jobs. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/21/11)

In 2010, The Obama Administration Predicted That Their $10 Billion Teacher Union Bailout Would Save 5,900 Teacher Jobs In Pennsylvania. (“Projected FY2010 Education Jobs Fund Allocations,” Department Of Education, 8/6/10)

  • But In September 2011, There Were 8,000 Fewer Workers Employed In Local Pennsylvania School Systems Than The Year Before, (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/21/11)

WHICH EXPLAINS WHY OBAMA’S POLL NUMBERS ARE SO LOW IN THIS CRUCIAL SWING STATE

Pennsylvania “Is Among The 12 Swing States Likely To Determine The Outcome Next Year.” “Michigan, which has backed the Democratic candidate in the last five presidential elections, is among the 12 swing states likely to determine the outcome next year. The others are Florida, North Carolina and Virginia in the South; Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the Mountain West; Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast.” (Susan Page, “Swing States Poll: Obama’s Path To 2nd Term An Uphill Climb,” USA Today, 11/5/11)

Only 41 Percent Of Pennsylvania Voters Approve Of Obama’s Job Performance. “Obama's job approval rating -- 41 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving -- shows little change from a June poll, said Jim Lee, president of the Harrisburg-based polling firm. What changed is the intensity of voters' disapproval.” (Brad Bumsted, “Susquehanna Poll Suggests Obama Would Lose Pennsylvania,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review10/21/11)

  • 42 Percent Of Pennsylvania Voters “Strongly Disapprove” Of Obama’s Job Performance, Compared To 18 Percent Who Say They “Strongly Approve.” "’The negative intensity should be of concern to the president since 42 percent say they strongly disapprove compared to only 18 percent who strongly approve -- or more than a 2-1 disparity,’ Lee said. Intensity is important because it can be a ‘galvanizing factor’ in determining voter turnout, he said.” (Brad Bumsted, “Susquehanna Poll Suggests Obama Would Lose Pennsylvania,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review10/21/11)

Obama’s Support Is Waning Among “Working-Class Democrats” In Pennsylvania, “Largely Based On A Loss Of Trust.” “Obama has a Pennsylvania problem, particularly with working-class Democrats and women who supported Hillary Clinton in 2008. He eventually won them over (along with young people and blacks), beating Republican John McCain by nearly 10 points. Today, not so much — largely based on loss of trust. Candidates know they can evoke strong negative feelings and still win back voters. But voters' trust is nearly impossible to recover.” (Salena Zito, “Obama's Pennsylvania Problem” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, 10/16/11)


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