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Job Pivots Without Progress

- May 9, 2013

Obama's Jobs Strategy: Pivot Back To The Economy Every So Often

Today, Obama Is Kicking Off Yet Another Pivot To Jobs Called The "Middle Class Jobs & Opportunity Tour." "President Obama will travel this week to Austin, where the jobs market has been booming, to kick off a new focus on the middle class and economic growth. Obama is planning a campaign-style 'Middle Class Jobs & Opportunity Tour' across the country, beginning Thursday in Austin, a magnet for new tech jobs. The push seems designed to help jump-start the president's second term." (Philip Rucker, "Obama To Launch Campaign-Style Jobs Tour In Austin," The Washington Post 's Post Politics , 5/6/13)

THE OBAMA BROKEN RECORD: PIVOTING BACK TO JOBS

JANUARY 2011: "The White House Has Quickly Pivoted To Jobs After The President's State Of The Union." "Turning to domestic politics, the White House has quickly pivoted to jobs after the president's State of the Union -- even if it's being overshadowed by the situation in Egypt." (Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg, "First Thoughts: Balancing Act," NBC News' "First Read", 1/31/11)

APRIL 2011: "Obama's Day: Turning Back To Jobs … President Obama Returns Today To What He Calls His Top Priority: Jobs." "Though his presidential hours have been crowded by Libya, Japan and other foreign policy challenges, President Obama returns today to what he calls his top priority: jobs." (David Jackson, "Obama's Day: Turning Back To Jobs," USA Today, 4/1/11)

JULY 2011: The Nation Headline: "Obama's Pivot To Jobs Long Overdue" (Ari Berman, "Obama's Pivot To Jobs Long Overdue," The Nation, 7/12/11)

AUGUST 2011: "Obama And Senate Dems Plan Pivot To Jobs" "OBAMA AND SENATE DEMS PLAN PIVOT TO JOBS: Senate Democrats hope they now have 'checked the box' on debt reduction and can move to an agenda focused on job creation and economic growth, through a combination of spending and tax cuts." (Mike Allen, "DEMS PLAN PIVOT TO JOBS: Transportation, Infrastructure, Tax Breaks On Fall Agenda," Politico's "Playbook", 8/2/11)

AUGUST 2011: The Huffington Post Headline: "Obama's Jobs Pivot" (Joe Peyronnin, "Obama's Jobs Pivot," The Huffington Post, 8/2/11)

AUGUST 2011: National Public Radio Headline: "Obama, Democrats 'Pivot' To Jobs But May Be Hamstrung" (Frank James, "Obama, Democrats 'Pivot' To Jobs But May Be Hamstrung," National Public Radio , 8/3/11)

AUGUST 2011: Yahoo! News Headline: "Obama 'Pivots' To Jobs - But What Can He Do?" (Zachary Roth, "Obama 'Pivots' To Jobs - But What Can He Do?," Yahoo! News' The Lookout, 8/5/11)

SEPTEMBER 2011: Politico Headline: "President Obama Pivots To Jobs - And Dares GOP To Follow" (Glenn Thrush, "President Obama Pivots To Jobs - And Dares GOP To Follow," Politico, 9/8/11)

JUNE 2012: The Wall Street Journal Headline: "Obama To Revisit Economic Debate" (Carol E. Lee and Laura Meckler, "Obama To Revisit Economic Debate," The Wall Street Journal, 6/11/12)

JULY 2012: MSNBC: "The Jobs Pivot: With The Economy Struggling, How Does President Obama Make The Case To Be Reelected?" (MSNBC's "NewsNation," 7/6/12)

FEBRUARY 2013: National Journal Headline: "Stung By Media's Focus On Liberal Agenda, Obama Pivots Back To Economy" (Ron Fournier, "Stung By Media's Focus On Liberal Agenda, Obama Pivots Back To Economy," National Journal , 2/8/13)

  • ABC's Rick Klein: "He's Pivoted Enough To Have Spun Himself Around, More Than A Few Times." "ABC's Rick Klein: He's pivoted enough to have spun himself around, more than a few times. But President Obama's latest turn toward jobs, in tomorrow's State of the Union address, will be about as memorable as the other turns so long as the fiscal and budget debates that have paralyzed Washington for two years now remain unresolved." (Michael Falcone, "The State Of The Union Is…," ABC News' The Note, 2/11/13)

FEBRUARY 2013: The Associated Press Headline: "Obama Will Pivot Back To Jobs In State Of The Union" (Julie Pace, "Obama Will Pivot Back To Jobs In State Of The Union," The Associated Press, 2/9/13)

APRIL 2013: The Wall Street Journal Headline: "In Mexico Visit, Obama To Pivot From Security To Economy" (Thomas Catan, "In Mexico Visit, Obama To Pivot From Security To Economy," The Wall Street Journal, 4/30/13)

OBAMA'S ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP HAS LED AMERICANS TO DROP OUT OF THE LABOR FORCE AND BUSINESSES TO HOLD BACK HIRING

Since Obama Took Office, The Labor Force Participation Rate Has Declined From 65.7 Percent To 63.3 Percent. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 5/9/13)

  • In April, The Labor Force Participation Rate Remained At 63.3 Percent, The Lowest Rate Since 1979. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 5/9/13)
     
  • A Recent Study By The Boston Federal Reserve Concluded That The Decline In Labor Force Participation Is Mostly Due To Prime-Age Workers Dropping Out Of The Work Force, Rather Than Elderly Retirement. "These regression results provide stark evidence that cyclical factors have been crucial in explaining the recent decline in prime-age LFPR. The coefficient on the lagged change in prime-age unemployment is highly significant (t-statistic of -3.9); that is, the state-level data exhibit a strong negative correlation between changes in LFPR and lagged changes in unemployment for prime-age adults. In contrast, the regression intercept is not statistically significant from zero (t-statistic of -0.97), indicating that the data provides no support whatsoever for structural interpretations of the drop in prime-age LFPR. In effect, the state-level data indicates that the aggregate decline in prime-age LFPR since 2007 can be fully explained by the persistent shortfall in labor demand…" (Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, "Labor Force Participation And Monetary Policy In The Wake Of The Great Recession," Boston Federal Reserve, 4/9/13)
     
  • "What Is New, Surprising, Alarming And Often Overlooked In The Labor Force Today Is The Exodus Of Workers In Their Prime - And All The Growth Opportunities They've Taken With Them." "This is exactly why it was wrong in the first place to point to demographic change as the more important component of the decline in labor force participation today. It has never been a question that America's demographics would shift as the baby boomers began to retire; we've seen it coming for decades. What is new, surprising, alarming and often overlooked in the labor force today is the exodus of workers in their prime - and all the growth opportunities they've taken with them." (Jim Tankersley, "WonkFeud Part 2: The Labor Force Participation Debate Gets Real," The Washington Post 's WonkBlog , 4/30/13)

The Real Unemployment Rate, Including Those That Are Working Part-Time Due To Economic Reasons, Is 13.9 Percent. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 5/9/13)

  • In April, The Real Unemployment Rate, Including Those That Are Working Part-Time Due To Economic Reasons, Increased From 13.8 To 13.9 Percent. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 5/9/13)
     
  • ObamaCare Is Forcing Employers To Cut Back Employee Hours, Which Is "Not Good For The Economy Or Health Care Access." "But to win support for the law, Obama claimed it would lower costs, improve the quality of care and not force anyone off their current health care plan. That's not shaping up to be the case. Premiums are rising, employer uncertainty is growing and voters aren't viewing the law favorably - with many not even aware of the frontloaded benefits already in place. And even on the access side, the law of unintended consequences is kicking in: Some large retail companies are cutting back employee hours so they won't have to offer health insurance. That's not good for the economy or health care access." (Josh Kraushaar, "Obama's Legacy: A Health Care Law That Hurts His Party," National Journal , 5/2/13)
  • Part-Time Workers "Are Facing A Double Whammy" From ObamaCare. "Many part-timers are facing a double whammy from President Obama's Affordable Care Act." (Chad Terhune, "Part-Timers To Lose Pay Amid Health Act's New Math," Los Angeles Times, 5/2/13)

"This Recovery Is Still Half The Pace Of The Normal Expansion." "The bad news is that this recovery is still half the pace of the normal expansion. The Joint Economic Committee reports that if the economy had grown at the typical pace coming out of recession, at this stage GDP would be closer to $17.4 trillion. This $1.4 trillion growth deficit is roughly the size of the combined annual production of Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2011." (Editorial, "The Growth Deficit," The Wall Street Journal, 4/28/13)

Given That Obama's Policies Have Resulted In Such A Slow Recovery, Is It Any Wonder That His Poll Numbers On The Economy Are Dropping?

53 Percent Of Voters Disapprove Of The Way Obama Is Handling The Economy, Compared To 41 Percent Who Approve. (Quinnipiac Poll, 1471 RV, MoE 2.6%, 4/25-29/13)

72 Percent Of Voters Are Either "Somewhat" Or "Very" Dissatisfied With The Direction The Country Is Headed, While Just 25 Percent Say They Are "Somewhat" Satisfied And 2 Percent Say They Are "Very" Satisfied. (Quinnipiac Poll, 1471 RV, MoE 2.6%, 4/25-29/13)

43 Percent Of Voters Say They Think Republicans In Congress Can Better Handle The Federal Budget Deficit, Compared To 34 Percent Who Say Democrats Can Do A Better Job. (Quinnipiac Poll, 1471 RV, MoE 2.6%, 4/25-29/13)


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