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New Pew/USA Today Poll Doesn’t Leave Much For Democrats To Get Excited About

- May 5, 2014

DEMOCRATS’ 2014 IS LOOKING MORE LIKE 2010

According To A New Pew/USA Today Poll, Republicans Have The “Biggest Advantage In A Midterm Year In Two Decades.” “A new poll suggests Republicans have the biggest advantage in a midterm year in two decades. The Pew/USA Today poll released Monday found 47 percent of registered voters support the Republican candidate in their district or lean Republican. By contrast, 43 percent favor the Democratic candidate or lean Democratic.”  (Rebecca Shabad, “GOP Midterm Edge Biggest In 20 Years,” The Hill, 5/5/14)

  • “Their Lead In The Generic Congressional Ballot Is The Biggest At This Point For Republicans In The Past 20 Years.” (Susan Page And Kendall Breitman, “Poll: For The Midterms, A Tilt To The GOP,” USA Today, 5/5/14)
     
  • “The GOP Is At An Even Stronger Point Than Previous ‘Wave’ Elections In 1994 And 2010, And The Party Looks Poised To Make Major Gains And Possibly Take Control Of The U.S. Senate.” (Brett LoGiurato, “This Just Might Be The Worst Poll Yet For Democrats,” Business Insider, 5/5/14)

“47 Percent Of Voters Support The Republican Candidate In Their District Or Lean Republican, While 43 Percent Favor The Democrat Or Lean Democrat.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1162 RV, MoE 3.3%, 4/23-37/14)

  • “The Trend Over The Past Six Months In The So-Called Generic Ballot Shows That Democrats Have Lost Ground. In October, Democrats Held A Six-Point Lead (49% To 43%) In Midterm Voting Preferences.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1162 RV, MoE 3.3%, 4/23-37/14)
     
  • “At This Stage Of The Campaign, Independent Voters Are 16 Points More Likely To Say They Plan To Vote Republican (49%) Than Democratic (33%) In The Midterm.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1162 RV, MoE 3.3%, 4/23-37/14)

PEW/USA TODAY POLL DOES NOT GIVE DEMOCRATS A REASON TO RUN ON OBAMA’S RECORD

50 Percent Of Americans Disapprove Of The Job Obama Has Done As President, While 44 Percent Approve. “The president’s overall job approval rating has shown virtually no change dating back to last December. Currently 44% of the public approve of the job he is doing as president while 50% disapprove.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1501 A, MoE 2.9%, 4/23-37/14)

“Democrats Hoping Improvements In The Economy’s Course And The Affordable Care Act’s Implementation Would Level The Playing Field For November’s Elections Should Brace Themselves.” (Susan Page And Kendall Breitman, “Poll: For The Midterms, A Tilt To The GOP,” USA Today, 5/5/14)

  • “Obama’s Political Standing Is In Some Respects Weaker Than It Was At A Comparable Point In The 2010 Campaign.” “With the midterm elections six months away, Democrats are burdened by an uneven economic recovery and a stubbornly unpopular health care law. Perhaps equally important, Barack Obama’s political standing is in some respects weaker than it was at a comparable point in the 2010 campaign, which ended with the Republicans gaining a majority in the House.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1501 A, MoE 2.9%, 4/23-37/14)
     
  • “Even The President’s Supporters Worry He Is A Political Liability For Fellow Democrats.” (Susan Page And Kendall Breitman, “Poll: For The Midterms, A Tilt To The GOP,” USA Today, 5/5/14)

ObamaCare

“Opposition To The Affordable Care Act Continues To Be More Intense Than Support For It.” (Susan Page And Kendall Breitman, “Poll: For The Midterms, A Tilt To The GOP,” USA Today, 5/5/14)

ObamaCare’s Disapproval Has Hit “A New High” At 55 Percent. “The Pew Research Center poll shows disapproval of the law hitting a new high of 55 percent. It comes on the heels of several polls last week that showed the law had very little -- if any -- bump after sign-ups on the health-care exchanges exceeded goals.” (Aaron Blake, “Poll: Obamacare Hits New Low,” The Washington Post, 5/5/14)

  • “The Previous High For Disapproval Of The Law Was 54 Percent In Pew Polling. That Was At The Height Of The Implementation Problems In December.” (Aaron Blake, “Poll: Obamacare Hits New Low,” The Washington Post, 5/5/14)
  • “In September, Before The Launch Of The Online Health Care Exchanges, 53% Disapproved And 42% Approved.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1501 A, MoE 2.9%, 4/23-37/14)
     
  • “As In Earlier Surveys, Opposition To The Law Is More Intense Than Support: 43% Of The Public Disapproves Of The Law Very Strongly And 11% Disapprove Of It Not So Strongly. By Comparison, 26% Approve Of The Law Very Strongly While 13% Approve Of It Not So Strongly.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1501 A, MoE 2.9%, 4/23-37/14)

Economy

“From The Public’s Point Of View, Jobs Remain Scarce: 65% Say Jobs In Their Community Are Difficult To Find While 27% Say There Are Plenty Of Jobs Available.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1501 A, MoE 2.9%, 4/23-37/14)

  • “Moreover, There Has Been No Increase In Economic Optimism. About As Many Say That Economic Conditions Will Be Worse (24%) As Better (25%) A Year From Now, With 49% Predicting Little Change.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1501 A, MoE 2.9%, 4/23-37/14)
     
  • “Asked To Describe The Economic Recovery, 66% Say The Economy Is Recovering But Not So Strongly, 26% Say The Economy Isn’t Recovering At All, While Just 6% Think The Economy Is Recovering Strongly.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1501 A, MoE 2.9%, 4/23-37/14)

About Four-In-Ten (43%) Think Republican Leaders’ Policies Would Do More For The Economy While About The Same Share (39%) Says Obama’s Policies Would Be More Effective.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1501 A, MoE 2.9%, 4/23-37/14)

DEMOCRAT ENTHUSIASM IS DOWN

“As Has Been Seen In Other Polls Showing Trouble For Democrats This Year, The Party Is Also Hampered By A Lack Of Enthusiasm.” (Brett LoGiurato, “This Just Might Be The Worst Poll Yet For Democrats,” Business Insider, 5/5/14

“At This Early Point In The Campaign, Obama Inspires Far Less Enthusiasm Among Democratic Voters Than He Did Four Years Ago.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1162 RV, MoE 3.3%, 4/23-37/14)

  • “Only Three-In-Ten Democratic Voters (31%) Think Of Their Vote As Being ‘For’ The President. In February 2010, 47% Of Democratic Voters Saw Their Vote As An Expression Of Support For The President.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1162 RV, MoE 3.3%, 4/23-37/14)
     
  • “Democratic Voters’ Lack Of Enthusiasm For Obama May Complicate Democrats’ Turnout Efforts.”  (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1162 RV, MoE 3.3%, 4/23-37/14)

“Democrats Are Significantly Less Motivated By Their Support For Obama, A Factor That Could Complicate The Critical Effort To Turn Out Voters.” (Susan Page And Kendall Breitman, “Poll: For The Midterms, A Tilt To The GOP,” USA Today, 5/5/14)

  • “The President Continues To Be A Strong Motivating Force For The Other Side: 46% Of Republicans Say They Will Cast A Vote To Show Their Opposition To Him.” (Susan Page And Kendall Breitman, “Poll: For The Midterms, A Tilt To The GOP,” USA Today, 5/5/14)

“Currently, 42% Say Their View Of Obama Will Be A Factor In Their Midterm Vote: 16% Say They Consider It A Vote ‘For’ Obama While 26% Say It Is A Vote ‘Against’ Him.” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1162 RV, MoE 3.3%, 4/23-37/14)

  • “In February 2010, About As Many Said Their View Of Obama Was A Factor (44%); They Were Divided Over Whether It Would Be An Expression Of Support For Obama (24%) Or Opposition (20%).” (Pew Research/USA Today Poll, 1162 RV, MoE 3.3%, 4/23-37/14)

 


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