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read these Dem poll numbers

Michael Ahrens - July 31, 2017

A new Democrat survey of working-class white voters in key 2018 districts has Democrats panicking. While the media remains hyper-focused on Russia and “palace intrigue,” the voters that carried President Trump to victory in November largely approve of the job he and Congressional Republicans are doing.

Key findings of the “White Working Class Voter Project”

  • By a staggering 35-point margin, Republicans are believed to be more likely to “help improve the economy and create jobs” than Democrats
  • Democrats trail on the initial Congressional ballot by 10 points (43% - 33%)
    • Republicans are doing better with those under the age of 60 (45 % - 32%) than those over the age of 60 (42% - 34%)
  • A majority approve of the job President Trump is doing (52% - 44%)
    • Trump’s approval is higher among those under the age of 60 (56% - 40%) than it is with those over the age of 60 (49% - 47%)
    • Trump’s approval is higher in districts surveyed that Hillary Clinton carried (53% - 43%) than ones he carried himself (52% - 45%)
  • A majority also say the Trump Presidency is either going as well as they expected or going better than they expected
  • When asked: “Thinking about Democrats in Congress, what is your greatest concern?” the top 2 answers were “hyperpartisanship/not working with Republicans” and “obstructionist/opposition to Trump”
  • 66% of GOP voters approve of the job House Republicans are doing, up from 44% last year
  • These voters’ share of the electorate was stable from 2012 to 2016, but Democrats margin among them got 12 points worse

Year

% of Electorate

% Obama/ HRC

% Romney/ Trump

Dem Deficit

2012

36%

36%

61%

-25%

2016

34%

29%

66%

-37%

 

Top Conclusions: 

"We suffer from the lack of an identifiable positive agenda. Without it, voters will turn to Trump for progress. With it, we can make significant gains.”

"Our economic deficit is devastating. Voters don’t see special interests as the problem we need to fix.”

You can read the full House Majority PAC-funded survey here.

Methodology

This report covers the results of our research: 1000 total interviews in targeted House districts with a sample of likely 2018 voters. All of the voters were White, over the age of twenty-four and did not have a college degree or higher education. The interviews were conducted June 27 – July 13, 2017. The margin of error for overall results is ±3.10% and higher among subgroups.

  • Undecideds (Undec) are 24% of the electorate and are defined as anyone who was undecided on the initial ballot (InitB).
  • Target Voters (Targ) are 15% of the electorate and are those that do not initially vote for the Democratic candidate, but switch and do after messaging.
  • Obama + No Vote are 11% of the electorate and are voters that voted for President Obama in 2012, but voted for a candidate besides Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The regions are defined as follows:

  • The Midwest (MW) is 40% of the electorate and is defined as those living in Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin.
  • The Northeast (NE) is 35% of the electorate and is defined as those living in Maine, New Jersey, New York or Pennsylvania.
  • The South/West (SW) is 25% of the electorate and is defined as those living in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida or Texas.

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