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"Weaker Than Previously Thought" Clinton-Obama Recovery Has Left Millions Behind

- August 6, 2015

“Already The Worst On Record Since World War II,” Recently Revised GDP Figures Indicate It Is Even “Weaker Than Previously Thought.” “The economic expansion—already the worst on record since World War II—is weaker than previously thought, according to newly revised data.” (Eric Morath, “The Worst Expansion Since World War II Was Even Weaker,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/30/15)

Since The End Of The Recession, The Economy Has Advanced At A 2.2 Percent Annual Rate, Which Is “More Than A Half-Percentage Point Worse Than The Next-Weakest Expansion Of The Past 70 Years.” “Since the recession ended in June 2009, the economy has advanced at a 2.2% annual pace through the end of last year. That’s more than a half-percentage point worse than the next-weakest expansion of the past 70 years, the one from 2001 through 2007. While there have been highs and lows in individual quarters, overall the economy has failed to break out of its roughly 2% pattern for six years.” (Eric Morath, “The Worst Expansion Since World War II Was Even Weaker,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/30/15)

“Shadow” Unemployment Remains High As Wages Fail To Grow

“Shadow Unemployment” Has Put “Significant Pressure On Wages” Because The Unemployment Figure “Isn’t Really As Low As It Looks.” “And it turns out that they put significant downward pressure on wages, too. In other words, it isn't a mystery why wages haven't started to rise like they normally do when unemployment get this low, because unemployment isn't really as low as it looks.” (Matt O’ Brien, “Excited About An Upcoming Raise? Don’t Be.” The Washington Post, 8/4/15)

Americans Are “Dropping Out Of The Labor Market In Droves While Residents Of Europe And Other Development Nations “Are “Jumping In.” “Americans are dropping out of the labor market in droves while residents of Europe and other developed nations, many of which are economically troubled, are jumping in. Since 2000, America's labor force has shrunk more than any other advanced nation's, even though the U.S. economy has fared better.” (Tami Luhby, “Why America’s Workforce Is Shrinking And Europe’s Isn’t,” CNN, 7/15/15)

Wage Growth Remains “Slow By Any Measure” And Falls “Far Below Any Reasonable Wage Target.” “Average hourly earnings held steady between May and June at $24.95 per hour, a paltry increase of 2.0 percent over June 2014. Annual growth of 2.0 percent is slow by any measure, but is certainly far below any reasonable wage target. In previous months, there had been some indication that wages might show signs of improvement, but this month’s disappointing report clearly illustrates that the economy has not tightened enough for strong wage growth.” (Elise Gould, “Paltry Wage Growth In June Is Another Sign The Economy Is Only Sputtering Along,” Economic Policy Institute, 7/2/15)

Wage Inflation Is Around 2 Percent, The Same It Has Been Throughout The Entire Recovery. “It's not anymore, though. Wage inflation is stuck at the same 2 percent it's been the whole recovery, well below the 3.5 to 4 percent it would be in a normal economy—the implication being that this is not one.” (Matt O’ Brien, “Excited About An Upcoming Raise? Don’t Be.” The Washington Post, 8/4/15)

  • In A “Normal Economy” Wage Inflation Would Around 3.5 To 4 Percent. “It's not anymore, though. Wage inflation is stuck at the same 2 percent it's been the whole recovery, well below the 3.5 to 4 percent it would be in a normal economy—the implication being that this is not one.” (Matt O’ Brien, “Excited About An Upcoming Raise? Don’t Be.” The Washington Post, 8/4/15)

With Rent Rising Faster Than Wages, It’s No Wonder Young Adults Are Staying At Home

The Cost Of Renting A Home Is “Rising Faster Than Wages Across Wide Swaths” Of The U.S. “Putting A Big Squeeze” On Household Budgets. “The cost of renting a home is rising faster than wages across wide swaths of the country, a problem that has become especially acute in the past year, putting a big squeeze on many household budgets.” (Jeffrey Sparshott, “Rising Rents Outpace Wages In Wide Swaths Of The U.S.,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/28/15)

Young Adults, 18 To 34 Years Old, Are “Less Likely To Be Living Independently Of Their Families And Establishing Their Own Households Today Than They Were In The Depths Of The Great Recession.” “But, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, these improvements in the labor market have not led to more Millennials living apart from their families. In fact, the nation’s 18- to 34-year-olds are less likely to be living independently of their families and establishing their own households today than they were in the depths of the Great Recession.” (Richard Fry, “More Millennials Living With Family Despite Improved Job Market,” Pew Research, 7/29/15)

Despite A Bleak Economic Reality, Clinton Insists Obama Deserves Praise For The Economy

Hillary Clinton Has Been “Praising” Obama’s Efforts On The Economy And Said That His “Hard Work Pulled Us Back From The Brink Of Depression.” “And Clinton was generally supportive of Obama's positions, pitching many of the same ideas he has attempted to push through Congress, and praising his leadership in digging the economy out of a recession. ‘President Obama and the American people's hard work pulled us back from the brink of depression. President Obama saved the auto industry, imposed new rules on Wall Street and provided health care to 16 million Americans,’ she said.” (Sarah McBride, “Clinton’s Sharing-Economy Remarks Draw Reaction In Silicon Valley,” Reuters, 7/13/15)

Clinton Campaign Spokesman Brian Fallon: “As Hillary Clinton Often Says, President Obama Does Not Get Enough Credit For The Job He Has Done Lifting Our Economy Out Of Recession.” “‘As Hillary Clinton often says, President Obama does not get enough credit for the job he has done lifting our economy out of recession,’ said Clinton campaign spokesman Brian Fallon. ‘The job of the next president will be to build on these gains, and she has begun laying out her plans to do just that.’” (Ben White, “So-So Economy Dogs Hillary Clinton’s Campaign,” Politico, 7/30/15)

However, Clinton’s Advisers Are “Well Aware” That Clinton Cannot Base Her Campaign On “Good Feelings About The Obama Economy.” “Clinton’s advisers are well aware that they will not be able to base their campaign on good feelings about the Obama economy. Instead, they plan to highlight the president’s achievements – an unemployment rate of 5.3% and a modest recovery from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression – while offering a package of policies aimed at addressing voters’ fears about the nation’s current direction.” (Ben White, “So-So Economy Dogs Hillary Clinton’s Campaign,” Politico, 7/30/15)

 


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